{"id":940726,"date":"2026-10-21T01:44:21","date_gmt":"2026-10-21T01:44:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/940726\/"},"modified":"2026-10-21T01:44:21","modified_gmt":"2026-10-21T01:44:21","slug":"pending-home-sales-plunge-to-record-low","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/940726\/","title":{"rendered":"Pending Home Sales Plunge to Record Low"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\t And these mortgage rates too shall pass? It\u2019s been four years of mortgage rates in a historically normal range. What\u2019s high is inflation and home prices.
\nBy\u00a0Wolf Richter<\/a>\u00a0for\u00a0WOLF STREET<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Pending sales of existing homes in September plunged by 7.3% from the already rock-bottom levels in August, seasonally adjusted, and by 11.3% year-over-year, and by nearly 40% from September 2019, to record low volume in the data going back to 2010, according to the National Association of Realtors today.<\/p>\n

Compared to September 2010, during the Housing Bust, and the first September in the data, they\u2019ve collapsed by 17%.<\/p>\n

Compared to September 2021, pending sales have collapsed by 43%; compared to 2020 by 48%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The NAR\u2019s metric of pending home sales tracks contracts that were signed in September but that haven\u2019t closed yet and could still get canceled. The rate of cancellations has been running high. Pending home sales are a preview of what is coming in terms of closed home sales.<\/p>\n

\u201cBuyers and sellers may simply be holding back until mortgage rates move favorably,\u201d the NAR report said.<\/p>\n

And that\u2019s of course precisely what buyers and sellers have been doing for four years, which is the problem, hence the collapse of home sales.<\/p>\n

Mortgage rates have been back in the normal range for those four years \u2013 it\u2019s just that there is a whole generation of buyers and sellers out there that haven\u2019t seen normal mortgage rates and are waiting for abnormal QE-and-ZIRP-based mortgage rates to return. But the Fed\u2019s financial repression, which started in 2008, was among the factors that triggered that worst inflation in 40 years, and that inflation now refuses to go back into the bottle.<\/p>\n

In terms of waiting for those QE-and-ZIRP based mortgage rates to return, Beckett\u2019s absurdist play, \u201cWaiting for Godot\u201d comes to mind, in which the guy they expect to provide salvation never shows up.<\/p>\n

The weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.40% in the latest reporting week, according to Freddie Mac. Mortgage rates have been in the 6% to 8% range since September 2022, which used to be considered normal to low in the decades before the Fed\u2019s financial repression.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

And it\u2018s also that the home price explosion from mid-2020 to mid-2022, fueled by these QE-and-ZIRP-based mortgage rates and FOMO, has blown home prices out of all proportion.<\/p>\n

But as buyers and sellers are trying to find common ground, those prices have started to correct to the downside in many markets: Austin, TX -26%; Oakland, CA -23%; New Orleans, LA -20%; Cape Coral and Fort Myers, FL -18%; Birmingham, AL -17%; McKinney, TX, -14%, etc.<\/a> Realistic pricing would repair this broken housing market. Here are prices of mid-tier single-family homes in Austin through September:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Supply of existing homes has soared to the highest level for any September in 11 years, as sales have plunged, and as inventories have risen.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
\nPending home sales by region.<\/p>\n

In the South,\u00a0pending sales plunged by 8.2% in September from August, to the lowest volume on record, seasonally adjusted.<\/p>\n

Compared to September in prior years:<\/p>\n

2025: -12.0% (year-over-year)
\n2024: -11.2%.
\n2023: -11.0%
\n2022: -18.8%
\n2021:\u00a0-42.8%
\n2019:\u00a0-36.9%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In the West,\u00a0pending sales plunged by 9.2% in September, to the lowest volume in the data.<\/p>\n

Compared to September in prior years:<\/p>\n

2025: -15.0% (year-over-year)
\n2024: -21.1%
\n2023: -13.5%
\n2022: -22.4%
\n2021:\u00a0-51.8%
\n2019: -49.6%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In the Midwest,\u00a0pending sales plunged by 6.5% month-to-month, seasonally adjusted, to the lowest volume on record.<\/p>\n

Compared to September in prior years:<\/p>\n

2025: -8.7% (year-over-year)
\n2024: -10.1%
\n2023: -10.3%
\n2022: -17.7%
\n2021:\u00a0-39.9%
\n2019:\u00a0-33.8%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In the Northeast,\u00a0pending sales fell by 4.2% month-to-month, seasonally adjusted. There had been three months last winter and April 2020 when sales had been even lower.<\/p>\n

Compared to September in prior years:<\/p>\n

2025: -9.4% (year-over-year)
\n2024: -9.8%
\n2023: -7.1%
\n2022: -18.4%
\n2021:\u00a0-35.8%
\n2019:\u00a0-36.9%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

In case you missed it: Single-Family & Multifamily Rents in the US and 22 Large US Metros: Amid Massive Divergence, Rents Are Re-Accelerating<\/a><\/p>\n

Enjoy reading WOLF STREET and want to support it? You can donate. I appreciate it immensely. Click on the mug to find out how:<\/p>\n

\n\"\"<\/a>\n<\/p>\n

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