Trump has not ruled out quitting the pact entirely, which requires six months\u2019 notice, and formal review talks with Canada are widely expected to drag well into 2027. That timeline leaves open what Ottawa would need to settle the tariff dispute in the meantime.<\/p>\n Experts split on whether to settle now<\/p>\n Ed Fast<\/a>, writing for The Hub, argued the president\u2019s pattern is to wield tariffs as leverage to extract concessions from Canada while offering none in return, and that any settlement reached irritant by irritant, or inside the pending CUSMA review, would favour Washington. \u201cRenegotiating now within the very narrow confines of CUSMA leaves Canada with little negotiating capital and will almost certainly result in a one-sided outcome in favour of the Americans,\u201d Fast explained. An acceptable deal, in his view, would be a wider bargain that puts regulatory reform, critical minerals, energy, defence spending, continental security and softwood lumber on the table together.<\/p>\n But Rudyard Griffiths, the co-founder and publisher at The Hub, and Sean Speer, The Hub\u2018s editor-at-large and co-founder, reject that call to hold out, arguing Canada should have taken the deal on the Aug. 18 terms rather than wait for a shift in American politics they contend is not coming. As they describe it, that framework would have cut the headline auto tariff to 15 percent from 25 percent<\/a> and steel and aluminum levies to 25 percent from 50 percent<\/a> under quotas, in exchange for Canada dropping its retaliatory tariffs and pressing provinces to restore American alcohol. \u201cThose insisting that Canada should hold out are mistaking a durable shift in American politics for a temporary Trumpian aberration,\u201d they write, adding that sacrificing the wider economy to shield an auto sector worth 0.7 percent of GDP is short-sighted.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s forecast of a quick settlement could reflect the electoral calendar more than any change at the table, given that Ottawa has confirmed no new offer and Washington is still adding tariffs. The clearest evidence is the gap between the president\u2019s claim that Canada will concede everything and Carney\u2019s hint that it is the United States moving. Whether a settlement resembles the August framework or a broader bargain should become clearer once the midterms are past.<\/p>\n The near-term calendar is set: the midterms are Nov. 3 and the partial rollback of the 50 percent tariffs takes effect at the end of the month. Beyond his hint of American movement, Carney has not laid out Ottawa\u2019s conditions for returning to the table.<\/p>\n![\"U.S.](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Fig1_CanadaIsDiversifying_graph_v1.jpg\")
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