{"id":953214,"date":"2026-10-31T14:04:15","date_gmt":"2026-10-31T14:04:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/953214\/"},"modified":"2026-10-31T14:04:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-31T14:04:15","slug":"ottawa-urged-to-boost-sovereign-intelligence-assessments-to-reduce-reliance-on-u-s","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/953214\/","title":{"rendered":"Ottawa urged to boost sovereign intelligence assessments to reduce reliance on U.S."},"content":{"rendered":"

Open this photo in gallery:<\/a><\/p>\n

Ottawa\u2019s new national security strategy pledged to increase \u2018the speed and depth of intelligence assessment.\u2019KeithBinns\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/p>\n

Ottawa is facing calls to boost the government\u2019s intelligence assessment capabilities, warning that Canada can no longer rely on U.S. analysis of international security threats and must also build capacity to understand U.S. intentions.<\/p>\n

As the government prepares for its federal budget on Nov. 5, former senior intelligence assessors are calling for more investment in Canada\u2019s sovereign capabilities, with some urging Prime Minister Mark Carney to set up an independent agency. <\/p>\n

Ottawa\u2019s national security strategy, published this week<\/a>, pledged to increase \u201cthe speed and depth of intelligence assessment, particularly all-source intelligence.\u201d<\/p>\n

Authorities on intelligence analysis say Ottawa has failed to invest sufficiently in \u201cpolicy neutral\u201d assessments, and this must be urgently addressed. <\/p>\n

\u201cIn an increasingly dangerous and unpredictable world, where even our closest allies can no longer be trusted, Canada needs to strengthen its intelligence capabilities across the board, both on the collection and assessment side, to support government decision making,\u201d said Vincent Rigby, national security and intelligence adviser to former prime minister Justin Trudeau from 2020 to 2021. <\/p>\n

\u201cThe best raw intelligence is useless as a tool if it cannot be properly collated and analyzed,\u201d he added in an e-mail. <\/p>\n

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Mr. Rigby, a professor at the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill University, said intelligence assessment tends to focus on traditional state threats, for example from China, Russia, and Iran, as well as transnational concerns such as terrorism and organized crime.<\/p>\n

But he said \u201cit must also address the elephant in the room \u2013 the U.S.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cGiven the U.S.\u2019s hostile and unpredictable behaviour under Trump, we can no longer rely on their intelligence assessments of the international security environment, and we need to conduct our own analysis of their approaches towards us and the rest of the world,\u201d he added in an e-mail. <\/p>\n

\u201cThis does not mean \u2018spying\u2019 on the U.S. per se through clandestine means, but simply the ability to understand U.S. intentions and actions and support government responses, including through open sources. In short, we need a strengthened independent, sovereign assessment capability.\u201d <\/p>\n

Mr. Rigby said should Canada\u2019s relationship with the U.S. \u201cever return to some semblance of normalcy,\u201d its increased assessment capacity would be valued by members of the Five Eyes, the intelligence alliance that includes Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the U.S. <\/p>\n

He said the government has reduced its assessment capacity \u2013 especially in the Privy Council Office \u2013 which is regrettable. <\/p>\n

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There are a number of intelligence assessment units across government, including the Privy Council Office\u2019s Intelligence Assessment Secretariat, which conducts domestic and global security assessments.<\/p>\n

Global Affairs also has an intelligence and threat assessment division whose work includes assessments of foreign developments and potential threats to Canadian interests overseas, including to our diplomats. <\/p>\n

Canadian Forces Intelligence Command is the largest intelligence analysis group looking at military issues and other threats to national security. Other departments, including the Canada Border Services Agency, also conduct intelligence analyses. <\/p>\n

Wesley Wark, a fellow with the Waterloo, Ont.-based Balsillie School of International Affairs who served for two terms on the PM\u2019s Advisory Council on National Security, said intelligence assessment in Ottawa \u201cis in sorry disarray.\u201d It needs to be enhanced with a clear pathway for getting timely and relevant intelligence to the Prime Minister, senior advisers and senior officials, he said.<\/p>\n

Alan Barnes, former director of the Privy Council Office\u2019s Intelligence Assessment Secretariat\u2019s Middle East and Africa division, said in recent years intelligence assessment has taken a back seat to intelligence collection.<\/p>\n

But he said he is encouraged that the national security strategy has pledged to increase Canada\u2019s capacity to produce strategic, all-source intelligence assessments to support government decision-makers.<\/p>\n

\u201cOne way to do this \u2013 which I strongly endorse \u2013 would be to create a Canadian intelligence assessment agency,\u201d he said in an e-mail.<\/p>\n

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\u201cCanada needs a robust capability to produce independent intelligence assessments prepared from a Canadian point of view and with Canadian interests in mind,\u201d said Mr. Barnes, senior fellow at Carleton University\u2019s Norman Paterson School of International Affairs.<\/p>\n

He said Canada\u2019s close intelligence relations with its Five Eyes partners have been of immense benefit to the country. <\/p>\n

\u201cBut Canada also needs the ability to make sound independent judgments about the credibility and significance of all the intelligence that we receive, from our own sources and from our allies.\u201d <\/p>\n

Canada\u2019s intelligence assessments have not always chimed with the U.S. view. For example, in 2002 when tension was increasing over whether then president of Iraq Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, Ottawa\u2019s assessment questioned the Bush administration\u2019s claims, which contributed to Canada\u2019s decision not to join the U.S. invasion of Iraq. <\/p>\n

Greg Fyffe, a former executive director of the International Assessment Secretariat at the Privy Council Office, said at a time of \u201cextreme geopolitical danger\u201d as well as disinformation campaigns, convincing fakes and shifting alliances, \u201call on top of the traditional challenge of reaching actionable decisions with available intelligence, Canada has to ensure it has a correspondingly strong and independent assessment capability.\u201d<\/p>\n

Privy Council Office spokesperson M\u00e9lany Gauvin said, \u201cCanada\u2019s capacity to analyse and assess information collected from our own capabilities or coming from partners is critical to ensuring a sovereign Canadian perspective is applied to the decisions the government makes about Canadian interests. <\/p>\n

\u201cBecause of this, the government continuously examines the effectiveness of Canada\u2019s capabilities for intelligence collection and assessment to ensure that Canadian capabilities match the challenges we face.\u201d <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Open this photo in gallery: Ottawa\u2019s new national security strategy pledged to increase \u2018the speed and depth of…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":953215,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[194295],"tags":[49,48,20739,714],"class_list":["post-953214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-ottawa","tag-ca","tag-canada","tag-ottawa","tag-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/953214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=953214"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/953214\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/953215"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=953214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=953214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=953214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}