![\"Kathleen](\"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/11\/9999-city-meteorologist-2308_305778111.jpg\")
Kathleen Maynard-Leclerc, Warning Preparedness Meteorologist at Environment and Climate Change Canada in Montreal, on Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026. Allen McInnis \/ Montreal Gazette<\/p>\nAs extreme weather becomes more frequent in the context of climate change, a research project led by Concordia University is working to improve forecasting so Canada is better prepared to respond. <\/p>\n
Funded over five years, WxAlliance brings together nine schools and eight societal partners across the country \u2014 including Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) \u2014 to develop forecasting models that combine traditional methods with machine learning to improve predictions.<\/p>\n
\u201cI think for Canada, it\u2019s extremely important,\u201d said Brian Vermeire, principal investigator of the project and associate professor of mechanical, industrial and aerospace engineering at Concordia. \u201cCanada is so large and so geographically diverse, the weather systems are very different across the country. We really need to have accurate forecasts to help protect people\u2019s lives (and) to prevent financial damages.\u201d<\/p>\n
Traditional weather forecasting relies on a series of equations solved by supercomputers, Vermeire explained: \u201cYou take a snapshot of what the atmosphere looks like right now, and then you numerically solve those equations using a supercomputer to predict what the weather is going to be, let\u2019s say, tomorrow.\u201d<\/p>\n
But there are some processes in the atmosphere for which there may not be adequate equations, leading to a loss of accuracy, Vermeire added, using the example of a forecasted ice storm in Montreal last winter that never came to be. <\/p>\n
Machine learning, meanwhile \u2014 a relatively new technology \u2014 relies on historical weather data to make its predictions instead.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt pulls out patterns from the historical data and then tries to sort of match those patterns to the current condition to predict the future,\u201d Vermeire said. <\/p>\n
But since machine learning also has limitations, WxAlliance\u2019s goal is to find a hybrid approach: \u201cHow can we couple them together in a way to get better forecasts?\u201d Vermeire said.<\/p>\n
St\u00e9phane Gaudreault, research manager at ECCC, said the agency\u2019s scientific machine-learning research team has already started experimenting with combining the methods \u2014 an approach called spectral nudging.<\/p>\n
\u201cWhat we do is make small corrections to the physical model based on what the machine-learning model tells us,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s a bit as if the machine-learning model were telling the physical model \u2018that storm should track a little farther north\u2019 \u2014 the physical model would then apply very small adjustments to nudge it in the direction suggested by the other model.\u201d<\/p>\n
The agency has noticed that machine-learning models perform better for broad patterns over large geographic areas, like hurricanes, but not as well for fine details \u201csuch as the intensity of a storm or smaller-scale features occurring over a few kilometres,\u201d Gaudreault explained.<\/p>\n
Combining them, then, is \u201cthe best of both worlds.\u201d<\/p>\n
\t\tEditor\u2019s Picks\t<\/p>\n
Like Vermeire, Gaudreault pointed out that when it comes to extreme weather, accurate forecasting is what allows decision-makers to decide on courses of action \u2014 such as when to evacuate an area in the event of fires or floods. <\/p>\n
\u201cHaving better weather forecasts will help us make better decisions where needed, in a context where severe events may be occurring more frequently, and with levels of intensity that perhaps we have not seen in the past,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
Asked about the accuracy rate the agency is striving for, Gaudreault said it\u2019s difficult to say since new methods are constantly being discovered. <\/p>\n
\u201cIn a way, it\u2019s a bit like building an airplane while it\u2019s already in flight,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n
The WxAlliance project seeks to define accuracy, given that the definition can differ depending on context, Vermeire said. <\/p>\n
\u201cAccuracy might mean something very different to an ordinary citizen on the weekend if they want to go outside or not, compared to, let\u2019s say, an insurance company when they\u2019re trying to forecast risk, versus a farmer when they\u2019re trying to spray their crops,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
ECCC provides a variety of forecasts, from daily weather to watches and warnings to seasonal outlooks. Kathleen Maynard-Leclerc, one of several meteorologists at the agency who scans radars daily, said that ECCC, like other agencies around the world, is shifting its focus to impact-based forecasts. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s to help \u2026 emergency managers to plan their resources if they need to be displaced in certain areas for power outages \u2026 but also for individuals to take their own measures to protect themselves, whatever that may be,\u201d she said, pointing out that some extreme weather impacts everyone in a given area, while some impacts people with specific vulnerabilities, like those whose basements tend to flood.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe try to focus on high-impact weather and try to communicate as best as we can to the public,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
Kathleen Maynard-Leclerc, Warning Preparedness Meteorologist at Environment and Climate Change Canada in Montreal, on Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2026. Allen McInnis \/ Montreal Gazette<\/p>\n
With the first snowfall on the horizon, the fact that some drivers may not have installed their winter tires yet will influence ECCC\u2019s alerts, Maynard-Leclerc explained. <\/p>\n
\u201cIt might be just 10 centimetres instead of 15 or 25, but we know \u2026 people are going to not be prepared, and they haven\u2019t driven in winter weather in a while \u2014 so that\u2019s how we try to adjust our warnings,\u201d she said. \u201cBut it\u2019s a work in progress. It\u2019s not easy to anticipate all the vulnerabilities.\u201d <\/p>\n
Maynard-Leclerc also pointed out that the atmosphere is a chaotic environment, meaning \u201cthere\u2019s always going to be a level of unpredictability to it.\u201d She suggests downloading the Environment and Climate Change Canada app to stay alert.<\/p>\n
When it comes to WxAlliance \u2014 which received $5 million in funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Alliance Society in September \u2014 Vermeire said he suspects the team will be able to make \u201cpretty significant contributions\u201d to forecasting over the next five years. That includes the training of 35 to 40 new weather forecasting experts on new techniques \u2014 \u201cso that Canada has a workforce that has the expertise we need going forward.\u201d<\/p>\n