Inside the Market\u2019s roundup of some of today\u2019s key analyst actions<\/p>\n
In response to a \u201csignificant\u201d cut to its 2027 copper guidance along with a \u201creset\u201d of the medium-term outlook, TD Cowen analyst Craig Hutchison downgraded Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (IVN-T<\/a>) to \u201chold\u201d from a \u201cbuy\u201d rating previously.<\/p>\n \u201cThe latest guidance cut calls into question the path forward to return to a productive capacity of 500ktpa, in our view, which now requires a Phase 4 expansion,\u201d he said. \u201cThe magnitude of the reset warrants taking a more cautious stance on the shares, we believe.\u201d<\/p>\n Alongside Tuesday\u2019s post-market release of its third-quarter results, Ivanhoe reduced its short-term production guidance for its flagship Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. It now expects 2027 production of 300,000 to 350,000 tonnes of copper, falling from prior expectations of 380,000 to 420,000 tonnes.<\/p>\n \u201cA slower than expected ramp in 2027 was partially to blame including a delay in the start of stoping on the Eastern side of Kakula from Q4\/27 to late Q1\/28 and a reduction in the estimated maximum mining rate at Kakula,\u201d said Mr. Hutchison. \u201cCost guidance for 2027 was increased to $2.50-$3.00\/lb from previously $2.10-$2.50\/lb. <\/p>\n \u201cMore concerning, in our view, the recent in-fill drilling campaigns and engineering trade-off studies now suggest that the maximum productive capacity of Phases 1-3 has been reduced to 400-450kt from 500kt. This suggests to us that grades may not have been reconciling against the previous resource models and underground costs may be more prohibitive given hydrological conditions. The company plans to integrate open-pit material from Kamoa starting in H2\/27 to displace higher-grade underground material from Kakula.\u201d<\/p>\n The analyst emphasized the miner\u2019s path back to 500,000 tons of annual production has \u201cbecome longer, more capital intensive and more dependent on future execution.\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cA return toward 500ktpa \u2014 essentially the production levels prior to the seismic event in early 2025 \u2014 now requires the proposed Phase 4 expansion, which was previously expected to be an incremental addition to production,\u201d he explained. \u201cWith detailed engineering only beginning in Q1\/27 and construction expected to take 18-24 months following approval, we see considerably less visibility on the medium-term production trajectory than we did previously. Furthermore, the capital intensity of Phase 4 is expected to be in the range of $9,000-$12,000\/t, or $1-billion to return to the previously targeted levels. Cash costs are expected to trend lower than $2.50\/lb prior to a potential Phase 4 expansion.\u201d<\/p>\n His target for Ivanhoe shares dropped to $9 from $14. The average is $15.18.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, Stifel\u2019s Ralph Profiti lowered Ivanhoe to \u201chold\u201d from \u201cbuy\u201d with a $12.50 target, down from $17.<\/p>\n \u201cOur key takeaways include a 20-per-cent cut to 2027 copper production guidance at higher capex, commercial production delayed at Platreef, new Kamoa starter pits planned for H1\/27, and a Phase 4 mill expansion now required for 500Ktpa of run-rate copper production (timing and capex uncertain). FY27 Kamoa-Kakula copper guidance was cut to 300-350Kt (from 380-420Kt) and C1 cash cost guidance raised to $2.50-3.00\/lb (from $2.10-2.50\/lb) on a slower Kakula ramp-up, with eastern stoping deferred to late-Q1\/28. Shallow open-pit mining at Kamoa is introduced, with pre-stripping from Q1\/27,\u201d said Mr. Profiti.<\/p>\n Analysts making target changes include:<\/p>\n * Raymond James\u2019 Judith Elliott to $12 from $15.50 with a \u201cmarket perform\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cWe believe Ivanhoe Mines offers attractive exposure to the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex in the DRC, complemented by the high-grade Kipushi zinc mine in the DRC and the growing Platreef PGM operation in South Africa, with further exploration upside from Western Forelands. While we see meaningful long-term potential across IVN\u2019s portfolio, we believe the ongoing rehabilitation and development at Kamoa-Kakula, coupled with uncertainty around the timing and pace of the production ramp-up and longer-term operating profile, present elevated execution risk. We expect IVN to remain a \u201cshow me\u201d story in the near term, with consistent operating improvements in mining rates, grades and production required to rebuild confidence in the operating outlook. We believe the updated Kamoa-Kakula LOM plan (expected by the end of 1Q27) should provide greater certainty on the operating profile and timing of the Phase 4 expansion, helping better assess Kamoa Kakula\u2019s valuation potential. We maintain a Market Perform rating,” she said.<\/p>\n TD Cowen analyst Patrick Sullivan thinks Wajax Corp. (WJX-T<\/a>) is \u201centering a potential Canadian capital-investment upcycle with meaningful exposure to the regions\/end markets where early nation-building activity is concentrated.\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cA healthy backlog, solid balance sheet, and improved cost structure support operating leverage ahead of a demand upcycle in 2027+ and a higher valuation multiple,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n Given that bullish view, Mr. Sullivan raised his rating for the Toronto-based industrial products and services company to \u201cbuy\u201d from \u201chold\u201d previously, calling it a \u201cpure play on Canada\u2019s capital investment upswing.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe believe the market is finally looking beyond near-term earnings volatility and factoring in a Canadian investment upcycle, supporting a higher valuation multiple,\u201d he added. \u201cFollowing an earnings print that would normally have sent WJX shares down double-digits, the stock showed resilience, finishing down only 3 per cent after opening down 11 per cent. We see this as evidence that investors are taking a longer-term view of WJX, factoring in its potential to benefit from a Canadian investment upcycle in 2027 and beyond. We believe this supports a higher valuation multiple and have increased ours to 11.5 times from 10 times. In conjunction with rolling our valuation period forward one quarter, our new valuation multiple increases our target price to $41.<\/p>\n \u201cInitial nation-building activity indexed to western Canada should present opportunities for WJX to win incremental equipment, industrial parts and ERS business. More than 50 per cent of WJX\u2019s end-market exposure is tied to oil sands\/oil and gas (17 per cent), mining (16 per cent), construction (15 per cent), and government\/utilities (6 per cent), and 45 per cent of revenue is derived in western Canada. The greatest momentum for project approvals appears to be focused in this region supported by energy, transmission, and mining projects. We believe the Build Canada Strong Act, Productivity Mega Deduction, and recent B.C. election results foster a more supportive investment climate for WJX\u2019s equipment, industrial parts, and ERS businesses.\u201d<\/p>\n While upgrading Wajax shares, Mr. Sullivan did acknowledge his forecast for the company \u201cremain conservative.\u201d <\/p>\n \u201cWe currently model what we see as very modest, low-single-digit, topline growth through 2027\/2028, and think potential upside could arise from faster project approvals translating into earlier mining, energy, port, infrastructure construction and accelerating equipment orders as customers utilize immediate expensing provisions,\u201d he said. \u201cNear-term earnings remain supported by a near-record backlog of $599-million which saw growth across construction\/forestry and IP\/ERS, with management indicating that quoting activity remains solid across several end-markets.\u201d<\/p>\n His new target of $41, up from $36, is higher than the average on the Street of $39.<\/p>\n TD Cowen analyst Derek Lessard sees Organigram Global Inc.\u2019s (OGI-T<\/a>) $561-million offer<\/a> for Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB-T<\/a>) as \u201ccompelling\u201d and recommends investors tender their shares.<\/p>\n That led him to move his rating for Edmonton-based Aurora to \u201csell\u201d from \u201cbuy\u201d previously.<\/p>\n \u201cIn our view, Organigram offers a potentially cleaner path to value realization than Curaleaf (CURA, not covered) despite a similar headline price: cash up front, less balance-sheet risk on the equity portion, and a combination linking Aurora\u2019s EU-GMP supply with Sanity\u2019s German commercial platform,\u201d said Mr. Lessard.<\/p>\n In a client note, he emphasized the deal brings \u201cgreater monetization certainty\u201d with Aurora shareholders having the option to receive $7.80 per share in cash.<\/p>\n \u201cOrganigram is essentially debt-free,\u201d he added. \u201cThis provides shareholders, who elect stock exposure to the combined company, with both equity upside and less financing uncertainty. <\/p>\n \u201cA complementary fit, especially in Germany. Aurora brings EU-GMP expertise and consistent medical supply, while Sanity adds branding, patient acquisition, and pharmacy\/ telemedicine relationships. Organigram management acknowledged EU-GMP supply constraints, so this deal should address a bottleneck. $50mm of synergies go beyond cost cuts. Beyond public-company costs and overlapping SG&A, opportunities include better German supply, adding Organigram products to Aurora\u2019s Canadian medical platform, and applying Aurora\u2019s EU-GMP expertise to Organigram\u2019s facilities.\u201d<\/p>\n Also noting the deal provides access to a broader international medical platform and the appeal of British American Tobacco (BAT) backing through its partial funding, he moved his target for Aurora shares to $7.80 from $8 to reflect the offer. The average on the Street is $5.66.<\/p>\n \u201cWe believe the broader Canadian cannabis read-through is also positive,\u201d Mr. Lessard added. \u201cAs we\u2019ve noted, this deal could spur further consolidation, particularly around strong cultivation assets and healthy balance sheets. Those that made tough choices early look well-positioned. The takeout multiple is 17 times our fiscal 2028 EBITDA estimate.\u201d<\/p>\n Seeing its outlook for 2027 as \u201csoft\u201d with revenue growth expected to be \u201cwell below\u201d its five-year average, TD Cowen analyst Graham Ryding downgraded Element Fleet Management Corp. (EFN-T<\/a>) to \u201chold\u201d from \u201cbuy\u201d previously.<\/p>\n \u201cThe low single digit revenue growth guide is a step-down from 2026 (approximately 8 per cent) and previous medium-term expectations (6-8 per cent),\u201d he said. \u201cWe think the share price reaction will be negative. Valuation may remain compressed until there is evidence of stronger execution and revenue growth. We model expense management and healthy buybacks to somewhat offset.\u201d<\/p>\n While Element\u2019s third-quarter results were broadly in line with the expectations of both Mr. Ryding and the Street, he called its outlook \u201cunderwhelming\u201d due to \u201cslower commercial growth and a focus on improving pipeline quality, driving new clients, increasing win rates, and services penetration.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe have made modest changes to our 2026 forecast, and our 2027 outlook comes down by 4 per cent. We remain at the low end of 2026 guidance and model revenue growth of 2 per cent\/6 per cent in 2027\/2028,\u201d he said. \u201cWe forecast EPS growth of 7 per cent\/ 10 per cent in 2027\/2028, assuming execution on expense management (including $20-million of previously targeted 2027 savings) and healthy buybacks will support EPS growth (we model buybacks of 4 PER CENT of shares outstanding in 2026\/2027, and 2 per cent in 2028).\u201d<\/p>\n Mr. Ryding\u2019s target for Element shares dropped to $22 from $31. The average is $33.44.<\/p>\n Ventum Capital analyst Daniel Lavoie has reaffirmed his \u201cpositive outlook\u201d for 5N Plus Inc. (VNP-T<\/a>) following \u201cstrong\u201d third-quarter results and a conference call with management that focused on its 2026 financial guidance that he continues to view as \u201cconservative.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe believe Q3\/26 results should alleviate investor concerns surrounding margin pressures, with adjusted gross margin expanding 110 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 31.4 per cent,\u201d he explained. \u201cRecall that following Q2\/26, operating inefficiencies and cost inflation weighed on margins. Management confirmed that most operational issues have been addressed, with stronger volumes and economies of scale driving the sequential improvement. While commodity inflation remains a headwind, additional contractual cost pass-throughs, expected to be substantially completed by mid-2027, should support further margin recovery.<\/p>\n \u201cLooking Beyond 2026: Multiple Growth Drivers. Management\u2019s commentary was particularly encouraging, with contracted terrestrial renewable energy volumes continuing to grow through 2027 and 2028, improving demand in medical imaging, and emerging opportunities in sensing and specialty metals, including germanium processing. CdSe for First Solar should contribute more meaningfully in H2\/27. In Performance Materials, management also highlighted potential market-share gains following the loss of GMP certification by its closest competitor in health and pharmaceutical bismuth products.\u201d<\/p>\n Shares of the Montreal-based producer of specialty semiconductors and performance materials soared 24.7 per cent on Tuesday after it reported revenue jumped 30 per cent year-over-year and 11 per cent quarter-over-quarter to $136.4-million, topping Mr. Lavoie\u2019s estimate by 9.6 per cent and consensus by 11.1 per cent. Adjusted EBITDA rose to a record $31.1-million (up 7 per cent and 17 per cent, respectively) and also topped forecasts (by 11.8 per cent and consensus by 17.2 per cent).<\/p>\n \u201cWe are increasing our 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates to $502-million and $112.4-million, respectively (from $487-million and $109.4-million), above management\u2019s $100\u2013105-million EBITDA guidance. Our forecasts imply Q4\/26 revenue of approximately $125-million and adjusted EBITDA of $25.6-million, below the record $31.1-million reported in Q3.\u201d<\/p>\n Maintaining a \u201cbuy\u201d rating for 5N Plus shares, Mr. Lavoie raised his target by $1 to $45.<\/p>\n \u201cStrong execution, improving operating leverage, and an increasingly diversified set of growth opportunities reinforce our long-term investment thesis,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, other analysts making target adjustments include:<\/p>\n * Desjardins Securities\u2019 Frederic Tremblay to $46 from $45 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201c3Q26 revenue and sequential margin improvement were ahead of expectations. While 2026 guidance still leaves room for upside, our focus increasingly shifts to the next leg of growth. Approximately two-thirds of VNP\u2019s revenue base benefits from strong multi-year growth visibility through First Solar and AZUR, while several potentially meaningful organic opportunities remain within reach across IRIS\/European space, U.S. defence and medical imaging,\u201d said Mr. Tremblay.<\/p>\n * Scotia\u2019s Jonathan Goldman to $39 from $37 with a \u201csector outperform\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cPost-3Q results we see the earnings trajectory higher for longer,\u201d said Mr. Goldman. \u201cMain incremental data points were: (1) margins recovering from 2Q lows with pass-throughs on track to restore price\/cost spread by 2H27; (2) revenue exceeding elevated expectations with continued momentum i.e., up 25 per cent to 30 per cent this year per management; and (3) bullish commentary around space pipeline stretching into 2030 with the company currently evaluating another capacity expansion (on top of the 35-per-cent increase in 2025, 30-per-cent increase in 2026, and 25-per-cent increase coming online in 2027). Specialty Semiconductors backlog is\/has been maxed out at 365 days of annualized revenue, a level that historically signaled another capacity expansion. There were few questions on defense, but that is a large source of upside.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe raised our estimates and sit modestly above the high-end of guidance. Admittedly that incorporates a good deal of conservatism: the guide implies 4Q EBITDA margins of 15 per cent, or down 800 basis points quarter-over-quarter, whereas flat is a more reasonable base case, in our view. VNP shares trade at 16 times EV\/EBITDA on our 2027E, which is not expensive in the context of durable secular trends supporting a long runway for mid-teens earnings growth; upside to guidance and forward estimates; and a still underappreciated pivot to higher margin downstream operations.\u201d<\/p>\n In a client report titled Earnings Can Do the Heavy Lifting, Scotia Capital analyst Jonathan Goldman said he continues to view Toromont Industries Ltd. (TIH-T<\/a>) with \u201ca positive risk\/reward bias\u201d in the wake of its third-quarter earnings report, pointing to potential increasing return potential from its 60-per-cent controlling stake in AVL Manufacturing Inc., a Hamilton, Ontario\u2013based designer and fabricator of power generation and storage enclosures. <\/p>\n \u201cEither you believe the AI build out has a long runway and ascribe a multiple to AVL comparable to AI infra plays in the mid-20s P\/E \u2013 and a decent premium for legacy given strong fundamentals that were further reinforced by the 3Q print (i.e., commodity backdrop, improving construction, early stages product support cycle, technician adds, Build Canada greenshoots, and B\/S net cash) \u2013 to arrive at a share price in the mid-$240s,\u201d he said. <\/p>\n \u201cOr you don\u2019t believe in AI and value AVL as a declining perpetuity, we estimate $50\/share (assuming AVL doesn\u2019t surprise to the upside again!) \u2013 and $150\/share for legacy using a modest 10-per-cent premium to historicals \u2013 to arrive at a share price in the low-$200s, or close to where shares are trading today. Alternatively, use 22.5 times P\/E, a 3.5-times premium to CAT-US [Caterpillar Inc.], in-line with historicals, to get $215\/share. With CAT shares trading 40 per cent below 52-week highs, we think it\u2019s a good anchoring point for AI valuation reset. <\/p>\n Shares of Toromont jumped 8.5 per cent on Tuesday after it reported third-quarter EBIT and earnings per share of $279.3-million and $2.35, respectively, topping the Street\u2019s forecast by 17 per cent and 11 per cent, respectively ($239.2-million and $2.11). The beat was driven by better-than-anticipated revenue and margin performance.<\/p>\n \u201cWe estimate EPS would have beat by 18 per cent excluding one-timers related to AVL purchase commitment expenses and amortization of acquisition-related intangibles (reported $0.19 negative impact) and excluding the M2M adjustment on DSUs [deferred share units] (estimated $0.06 positive impact),\u201d said Mr. Goldman. \u201cEquipment Group revenues 6 per cent ahead of consensus and up 26 per cent year-over-year including new equipment ex-AVL up 22 per cent year-over-year with \u2018improved construction activity\u2019 (i.e., the end-market that has been lagging) and product support up 14 per cent year-over-year on accelerating two-year stack. <\/p>\n \u201cAVL revenues $220 million continued to exceed our estimates demonstrating either a quicker ramp at Charlotte or higher than expected capacity (TBD).\u201d<\/p>\n With his \u201csector outperform\u201d rating for Toromont shares, Mr. Goldman raised his target to $244 from $239. The average on the Street is $253.22.<\/p>\n \u201cWhile we acknowledge limited room for multiple expansion, double-digits earnings growth through 2027 at least (with upside potential) should be enough to support commensurate unit price returns,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n Elsewhere, CIBC analyst Krista Friesen upgraded Toromont to \u201coutperformer\u201d from \u201cneutral\u201d with a $256 target.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have long liked the business and have been waiting for an attractive entry point, and we believe the pullback over the last month provides just that. Looking toward the end of the decade, we see a broader growth opportunity, not just because of AVL, but construction and mining too,\u201d said Ms. Friesen.<\/p>\n Analysts making target revisions include: <\/p>\n * National Bank\u2019s Maxim Sytchev to $254 from $261 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cWe have no idea how long the data centre buildout will persist (management is seeing strong demand as far as 2029E) as access to funding\/power, ROI, pushback from the people living in the vicinity of these projects, etc. are real considerations, but it is encouraging to see the core ex-AVL business operating strongly (same goes for PS inflecting),\u201d said Mr. Sytchev. \u201cAVL contributed 13.7 per cent of top line to Q3\/26; on an annualized run-rate basis (and depending on a multitude of assumptions), we suspect AVL could contribute 20 per cent to 25 per cent to TIH EPS in 2027. The question remains regarding this vertical\u2019s sustainability and ultimately terminal values. We therefore need to balance that dynamic against an objectively stronger core performance (and ahead of a generational level of spending in Canadian infrastructure). As CAT shares have seen a multiple compression , we are therefore lowering the target P\/E for TIH shares.\u201d <\/p>\n * Canaccord Genuity\u2019s Yuri Lynk to $250 from $260 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are increasing our 2026, 2027, and 2028 EBITDA estimates by mid single-digit percentages reflecting modestly higher revenue assumptions and more meaningful increases to our gross margin assumptions. Despite this, we are revising our EPS estimates down between 2 per cent and 5 per cent as we refine our assumptions around AVL-related purchase liability expense and the NCI allocation of dividends paid by AVL. In conjunction, we have adjusted our model to reflect the fact that these expenses are non-taxable,\u201d said Mr. Lynk.<\/p>\n * Stifel\u2019s Ian Gillies to $260 from $250 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cTIH delivered what we view as excellent 3Q26 results with revenue, EBITDA and EPS beating consensus by 8.4 per cent, 9.4 per cent and 19.7 per cent. AVL continued to perform well with 3Q26 revenue outpacing our expectations by 7.1 per cent, and we expect there to be modest room for higher revenue as the company continues to look for incremental capacity. The Equipment Group was also supported by DD revenue growth in new equipment (excl. AVL: up 21.8 per cent), product support (up 13.7 per cent) and rental (up 11.7 per cent). In our view, this is the best all-around performance for TIH since 4Q22,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n While Desjardins Securities analyst Jerome Dubreuil warns Telesat Corp.\u2019s (TSAT-T<\/a>) pivot from its legacy geostationary satellite business to low-Earth orbit \u201ccomes with material execution, financing and commercial risk,\u201d he also thinks it \u201ccreates an opportunity to gain meaningful share in a very large market.\u201d<\/p>\n Emphasizing \u201cthe magnitude of the potential upside more than compensates investors for these risks,\u201d he initiated coverage of the Ottawa-based with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating on Wednesday.<\/p>\n \u201cWe do not believe TSAT needs to compete head-on with Starlink, the dominant player in LEO, on scale or capacity,\u201d said Mr. Dubreuil. \u201cIndeed, Lightspeed (TSAT\u2019s LEO constellation) is positioned toward government, defence and enterprise customers that place greater value on sovereignty, resiliency, network redundancy and contractual service level agreements (SLAs). For example, we believe the recent media reports about Starlink throttling its network in Ukraine highlight the importance of redundancy and\/or sovereignty for mission-critical services. The US$1.9b Enhanced Satellite Communications Project-Polar (ESCP-P) program awarded in August also provides an important validation of that point.\u201d<\/p>\n He did acknowledge the potential impact of the company\u2019s looming debt-repayment deadline, calling it an immediate \u201churdle\u201d to be monitored by potential investors.<\/p>\n Telesat evaluates alternatives as December deadline to repay debt looms<\/a><\/p>\n \u201cTSAT\u2019s balance sheet situation is complex, and we believe the stock reflects significant refinancing risk,\u201d he said. \u201cHowever, beyond the protection we believe is provided by TSAT\u2019s strategic importance to the government, our estimated enterprise value should comfortably cover debt obligations and Lightspeed investments, while leaving meaningful equity upside. We therefore expect a resolution of the near-term maturities that is satisfactory for all stakeholders, even if an equity issuance is probable. \u201d<\/p>\n The analyst set a 12-month target of $91 for Telesat shares. The average is $88.14.<\/p>\n \u201cTSAT does not need to hit guidance \u2014 the stock still works with a more down-to-Earth forecast,\u201d he said. \u201cOur investment thesis does not require TSAT to achieve its ambitious US$4.9-billion 2032 revenue target. We forecast $3.4-billion of LEO revenue in 2032, less than half of the $6.9-billion company guidance, but our DCF nonetheless supports a $91 target price. Plugging management\u2019s guidance into our model would return an equity value several times higher than our target price. \u201d<\/p>\n National Bank Financial analyst Dan Payne said International Petroleum Corp. (IPCO-T<\/a>) is \u201cincreasingly rising up [his] depth chart, as a function of the organic catalyst at Blackrod, but also an evolving consolidation theme for similarly styled assets (increasing scarcity of scalable thermal assets)<\/p>\n Accordingly, following the release of in-line third-quarter results, he raised his rating for the Toronto-based company to \u201coutperform\u201d from \u201csector perform\u201d previously.<\/p>\n \u201cBlackrod remains the key operational highlight, with production ramping and first sales achieved during the quarter, and on track to achieve plateau by late 2027 (30 mbbl\/d),\u201d said Mr. Payne. \u201cAt present, the asset is producing approximately 10 mbbl\/d from 16 well pairs, with rates to type-curve producing in-line to ahead of expectations (positively suggestive of the efficiencies being realized from the resource), with a further 14 to come on stream through YE26 and 10 in 2027 (while a further six have been drilled). As production scales at Blackrod, we expect material operating leverage to cash flow to be realized, with that building free cash to provide a meaningful value catalyst (delivered through the return of capital initiatives), and poise the company for the next stage of value expansion in further phases of development.\u201d<\/p>\n Before the bell on Tuesday, International Petroleum \u201cmodestly\u201d increased its full-year guidance, with capital now expected to be $185-million (from $163-million) to \u201dsupport modest incremental activity across its portfolio of assets (largely long-term production oriented items), to support unchanged average production of 45.5 mboe\/d (midpoint) within the context of solid funding (given rising prices.\u201c <\/p>\n Changes were also made to the company\u2019s Brent forecast (US$95 per barrel from US$80) with its 60-per-cent payout ratio remaining unchanged, which the analyst said implies free cash of 2-3 per cent \u201cto continue to be directed towards its ongoing buyback as leverage organically falls.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cIn association with the update and outlook for a building catalyst at Blackrod (expanding production, increasing operating leverage, FCF and return of capital inflection), paired with an increasingly active transactional landscape with strong valuation metrics being ascribed (accentuating scarcity and value for scalable thermal assets, akin to Blackrod), we are upgrading the stock to Outperform and increasing our target price to $50 (from $47.50),\u201d he said. \u201cOur increased target price is based on a 7 times 2027 EV\/DACF target multiple (from prior rounded 6.5-7.0 times) that is in line with recent peer transaction metrics and comparable asset trading metrics.\u201d<\/p>\n The analyst\u2019s new $50 target exceeds the average on the Street of $43.50.<\/p>\n In other analyst actions: <\/p>\n * Seeing the selloff in Allied Properties REIT (AP.UN-T<\/a>) following its distribution cut<\/a> creating an entry point for investors, ATB Cormark\u2019s Sam Srinivas raised his rating to \u201cspeculative buy\u201d from \u201csector perform\u201d with a $6.25 target, down from $11. The average is $6.50.\u201cAllied reported Q3 FFO\/Unit of $0.186, behind our $0.23 estimate and consensus. The miss was primarily due to lower NOI and lower interest income (94-per-cent reduction year-over-year as no interest income was recorded on loans outstanding from Westbank). While the distribution cut, outlook revision and Westbank loans have dominated headlines, the silver lining coming out of the quarter was the leasing fundamentals were ahead of expectations and this is crucial considering asset disposition and debt repayment are on top of the REIT\u2019s priority list,\u201d Mr. Srinivas said.<\/p>\n * In a client report titled Finding Growth Beyond Insurance, ATB Cormark\u2019s upgraded Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T<\/a>) to \u201coutperform\u201d from \u201csector perform\u201d with a $2,850 target, jumping from $2,500 but remaining below the $2,899.31 average.<\/p>\n ” Fairfax\u2019s Q3 results reflected the strong underwriting profitability that we had expected, along with a continuation of moderating premium growth given ongoing market softness. The key surprise in the quarter was the strength from investments in associates and non-insurance operations, which has been bolstered by continued new investments, which contributed to drive a meaningful beat to our pre-tax operating EPS forecast (an ATB metric), coming in at $73.68, ahead of our $57.62 and up 18 per cent year-over-year. These factors also boosted reported dil. EPS to $43.32, well ahead of our expectation despite significant drag from mark-to-market losses on bonds. BVPS of $1,349.15 was up 12 per cent year-over-year,” said Mr. Fenwick. <\/p>\n * Despite \u201cmixed\u201d third-quarter results, Scotia\u2019s Orest Wowkodaw upgraded Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T<\/a>) to \u201csector outperform\u201d from \u201csector perform\u201d with a $53 target, down from $55 and below the $55.21 average, citing \u201ca very attractive valuation, peer-leading FCF yield, and a solid near-term Cu-Au growth profile.\u201d The average is <\/p>\n * Seeing \u201cstrong\u201d fundamentals but a \u201cmore balanced risk\/reward,\u201d Raymond James\u2019 Theo Genzebu downgraded Fortis Inc. (FTS-T<\/a>) to \u201cmarket perform\u201d from \u201coutperform\u201d with a $86.50 target, up from $85.50. Others making changes include: RBC\u2019s Maurice Choy to $90 from $89 with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating, BMO\u2019s Ben Pham to $85 from $81 with a \u201cmarket perform\u201d rating, Scotia\u2019s Robert Hope to $83 from $78 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating, Desjardins Securities\u2019 Brent Stadler to $90 from $85 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating, National Bank\u2019s Patrick Kenny to $84 from $83 with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating and TD Cowen\u2019s John Mould to $90 from $87 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating.. The average is $80.43.<\/p>\n \u201cWe continue to view Fortis favourably given its high-quality, fully regulated business model, visible 7.5-per-cent rate base growth and expanding investment pipeline,\u201d said Mr. Genzebu. \u201cHowever, while these opportunities support a constructive long-term growth outlook, we believe much of the incremental upside remains longer dated and has yet to translate into near-term earnings. Balancing these positive fundamentals against the shares\u2019 strong 17-per-cent appreciation year-to-date, we believe the current valuation largely reflects FTS\u2019 improving growth profile. We are moving Fortis to Market Perform (from Outperform) while increasing our target price to $86.50\/sh (from $85.50\/sh), reflecting our updated FY2027 earnings outlook following Fortis\u2019 expanded capital plan.\u201d* With cost pressures weighing on its 2027 outlook, ATB Cormark\u2019s Tim Monachello downgraded PHX Energy Services Corp. (PHX-T<\/a>) to \u201csector perform\u201d from \u201coutperform\u201d with a $13.25 target, down from $15.50. The average is $15.25.\u201cWhile activity and pricing were largely in line with our model, PHX\u2019s EBITDA\/FCF\/EPS were lower due to both structural and transitory margin pressures. Given a view to lower margins going forward, we reduce our adj. EBITDAS estimates by 10 per cent across our forecast horizon, reduce our price target to $13.25 from $15.50 and reduce our rating to Sector Perform given just 9-per-cent implied adj. EBITDAS growth in 2027 and 11-per-cent total return to target,\u201d said Mr. Monachello.<\/p>\n * Following the completion of its acquisition of the remaining 27.5-per-cent interest in subsidiary Aecon Utilities for $320-million, RBC\u2019s Sabahat Khan hiked his Aecon Group Inc. (ARE-T<\/a>) target to $62 from $53 with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating. The average is $62.50.<\/p>\n \u201cOverall, this is a directionally positive development for Aecon longer-term as it allows for a simplified capital structure (and business), and positions the company to more directly benefit from the growing demand in the utilities end-market. With the closing complete, Aecon now owns 100 per cent of Aecon Utilities, with no change to pro-forma net debt,\u201d said Mr. Khan. <\/p>\n * Desjardins Securities\u2019 Gary Ho moved his Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust (AD.UN-T<\/a>) target to $27 from $27.50 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average is $29.54.<\/p>\n \u201c3Q results were mixed,\u201d he said. \u201cRevenue topped 3Q guidance and our estimate, and NDCF [net distributable cash flow] rose 46 per cent year-over-year, but BVPU [book value per unit] fell short, weighed by a $58.9-million unrealized FV loss \u2014 40 per cent from partner-specific adjustments (Sono Bello, Shipyard, DNT) and 60 per cent from rate-driven declines. AD also tempered near-term exit expectations. We look for updates on Sono Bello, 4Q FV recovery (rate decline post-3Q) and the deployment pipeline on the call.\u201d <\/p>\n * Canaccord Genuity\u2019s Charles Zhang became the first to initiate coverage of Vancouver-based Carrier Connect Data Solutions Inc. (CCDS-X<\/a>), giving it a \u201cspeculative buy\u201d rating and $3 target.<\/p>\n \u201cCarrier Connect is a data centre roll-up, acquiring and leasing small, already-energized Tier II\/III facilities at a fraction of public-market and new-build valuations. With the Alpharetta lease marking an inflection point, a compelling buy-not-build model, and revenue visibility underpinned by strong demand, we view Carrier Connect as a high-growth story with a clear path to a re-rating,\u201d said Mr. Zhang. <\/p>\n * TD Cowen\u2019s Aaron MacNeil raised his Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI-T<\/a>) target to $40 from $36 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. Other changes include: ATB Cormark\u2019s Nate Heywood to $39 from $37 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating, Scotia\u2019s Robert Hope to $33 from $31 with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating, Raymond James\u2019 Michael Barth to $38 from $37 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating, RBC\u2019s Maurice Choy to $34 from $33 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating and National Bank\u2019s Patrick Kenny to $35 from $34 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating.. The average is $33.17.<\/p>\n \u201cThe call commentary shifts Marketing from a one-quarter beat to a more normalized earnings base, partly hedged into 2027, lifting our 2027E EBITDA 6 per cent,\u201d said Mr. MacNeil. \u201cOne or several larger organic project announcements are expected next year, a sanctioning is the next catalyst and should support further upside in the shares.\u201d<\/p>\n * TD Cowen\u2019s Mario Mendonca raised his Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T<\/a>) target to $309 from $303 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating, while Raymond James\u2019 Stephen Boland increased his target to $315 from $305 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $307.75.<\/p>\n ” Q3\/26 op. EPS $3.63 was down 19 per cent year-over-year, but higher than our $2.76 est. (cons. $3.05). DWP and earned premium were up 5 per cent (estimate 6 per cent). EPS beat came from higher U\/W inc. reflecting lower claims ratio (better PYD and current year losses vs. estimate), and a lower expense ratio. Distribution income was up 16 per cent year-over-year (estimate 10 per cent). Investment income was in line,” said Mr. Mendonca.<\/p>\n * Following Tuesday\u2019s earnings release<\/a>, National Bank\u2019s Doug Taylor increased his Shopify Inc. (SHOP-Q<\/a>, SHOP-T<\/a>) target to US$185 from US$180 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. Other changes include: ATB Cormark\u2019s Martin Toner to $237 from $234 with a \u201csector perform\u201d rating and Wells Fargo\u2019s Ken Gawrelski to US$205 from US$208 with an \u201coverweight\u201d rating.<\/p>\n \u201cOur increase in our target price … is deliberate as we think sustaining aggressive growth outweighs a minor near-term margin reset. We believe the share price reaction (down 5 per cent as of writing) reflects lofty expectations vs. a deterioration in Shopify\u2019s financial profile\/prospects and therefore represents an interesting entry point. We maintain an Outperform rating while our new target reflects 10.0 times (from 10.5 times) NTM+1 Sales given the temporary margin pressure,\u201d said Mr. Taylor.<\/p>\n * TD Cowen\u2019s Aaron Bilkoski cut his target for Spartan Delta Corp. (SDE-T<\/a>) to $16 from $17 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average is $17.11.<\/p>\n \u201cHigher-than-expected 2027 capital may grab attention, but we think the headline misses the bigger picture. Infrastructure investment supports a higher 75 mBOE\/d Duvernay plateau, lower third-party reliance and a multi-year development plan that should sustain Spartan\u2019s industry-leading liquids growth profile,\u201d said Mr. Bilkoski.<\/p>\n * ATB Cormark\u2019s David McFadgen dropped his Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T<\/a>) target to $30 from $39 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. The average is $26.06.<\/p>\n \u201cWe are lowering our estimates for Spin Master after having reviewed its Q3\/26 results in more detail and its outlook. We are moving to the bottom of its guidance range for 2026. We were previously at the high end of its guidance range,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n * Seeing its quarterly results<\/a> a \u201csolid,\u201d National Bank\u2019s Adam Shine increased his Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-T<\/a>) target to $190 from $180 with an \u201coutperform\u201d rating. Other changes include: CIBC\u2019s Stephanie Price to US$139 from US$124 with an \u201coutperformer\u201d rating and Canaccord Genuity\u2019s Aravinda Galappatthige to USS$130.50 from US$129.50 with a \u201cbuy\u201d rating. The average is $174.45.<\/p>\n \u201cTRI is down 7 per cent post Q3\/26 earnings as investors digest the expectation of weaker Q4 organic growth and reinvestments impacting 2027 operating leverage. There is no change to our thesis upon Q3 results and we have made minimal changes to our model post earnings. We continue to regard TRI as well positioned to benefit from increased legal and tax industry spending on AI-enabled solutions and expect 2027 investments to yield greater growth going forward.,\u201d said Ms. Price.<\/p>\n