{"id":96499,"date":"2025-08-25T18:44:08","date_gmt":"2025-08-25T18:44:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/96499\/"},"modified":"2025-08-25T18:44:08","modified_gmt":"2025-08-25T18:44:08","slug":"surprise-surprise-which-nba-teams-will-outperform-their-projections-and-which-will-underperform","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newsbeep.com\/ca\/96499\/","title":{"rendered":"Surprise, Surprise: Which NBA Teams Will Outperform Their Projections and Which Will Underperform?"},"content":{"rendered":"

There are surprise
\nteams and teams that disappoint every year in the
\nNBA<\/a>.
\nHere are the most likely of each for 2025-26.<\/p>\n

The great surprises of free agency are likely behind
\nus.\u00a0<\/p>\n

With the NBA offseason almost over, fans will have to wait until
\nbasketball is played for their next batch of surprises.<\/p>\n

A few
\nweeks ago<\/a>, we revealed our preseason power rankings \u2013 which
\nblend our in-house team and player metrics. However, even the best
\nprojections don\u2019t get it all right. There wouldn\u2019t be much of a
\npoint in playing the games if the projections were 100%
\ncorrect.<\/p>\n

To account for this margin for error, we look at the teams that
\nwill surprise the most when compared to our projections. Here are
\nthree teams that could overperform and three that could
\nunderperform.<\/p>\n

NBA Teams That Will Overperform
\nMilwaukee Bucks<\/p>\n

Preseason TRACR: 17th in NBA, 7th in Eastern
\nConference\u00a0<\/p>\n

Why They Will Overperform: The
\n2025 race for Giannis Antetokounmpo<\/a> received an anti-climactic
\nending, as, barring anything out of left field, it appears the
\ntwo-time MVP will remain with the only franchise he\u2019s ever
\nknown.<\/p>\n

Even with the team retaining one of the best players on the
\nplanet (8th in DRIP<\/a>),
\nmost folks see this as a gap year for the Bucks. But when you
\nreally dig into their roster, this team could be really good.<\/p>\n

As we saw<\/a>
\nwhen Damian Lillard went down with injury toward the end of the
\nregular season, Antetokounmpo does better as a lone star with good
\ncomplementary pieces instead of an ill-fitting co-star. Right now,
\nthe Bucks boast a ton of depth around the Greek Freak.<\/p>\n

They have firebird scorers (Cole Anthony, Bobby Portis, Kyle
\nKuzma and Kevin Porter Jr.), two-way wings\/forwards (Ryan Rollins,
\nAmir Coffey, Taurean Prince, Gary Trent Jr., AJ Green and Andre
\nJackson Jr.), a younger replacement to Brook Lopez (Myles Turner),
\nand a backup to relieve him (Jericho Sims).<\/p>\n

If Antetokounmpo can stay healthy, pencil this team in for a
\ntop-six spot in the East.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Denver Nuggets<\/p>\n

Preseason TRACR: 7th in NBA, 6th in Western
\nConference<\/p>\n

Why They Will Overperform: Outside of the
\nIndiana Pacers, no team pushed the defending-champion Oklahoma City
\nThunder harder than the Nuggets.<\/p>\n

The only thing that really held back the team that touts the
\nbest player on the planet was its lack of depth. Last season, they
\nfinished 27th in points per game off the bench.<\/p>\n

How did they respond to that dilemma this summer? Only by
\nswapping out Michael Porter Jr. and Dario Saric (who was out of the
\nrotation by the end of the year) for Cam Johnson, Jonas
\nValanciunas, Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr.<\/p>\n

The team that finished fourth in the Western Conference with
\nvirtually no bench significantly addressed this weakness and yet it
\nis projected to be worse? Feels like the perfect outperformer
\nsituation to me.<\/p>\n

\"Top
\nDallas Mavericks<\/p>\n

Preseason TRACR: 20th in NBA, 12th in Western
\nConference<\/p>\n

Why They Will Overperform: Forget all the
\nstupidity surrounding the front office over the last six months.
\nForget that Kyrie Irving (23rd in offensive DRIP or O-DRIP) could
\nmiss the entire season rehabbing from a torn ACL. This team is
\nDEEP, particularly when it comes to wings, forwards and bigs.<\/p>\n

Listen to this list of players: Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II,
\nDaniel Gafford, PJ Washington, Cooper Flagg, Naji Marshall, Max
\nChristie, Caleb Martin and Klay Thompson. Two of those players
\n(Davis and Lively) finished in the top 30 in defensive DRIP
\n(D-DRIP), and Flagg (one of the best prospects of the last decade)
\nfinished fourth in college basketball last year in
\nD-VAPR<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Sounds like a lock for a top-10 defense, right?<\/p>\n

Well, our model currently expects them to be a bottom-10 unit
\n(21st in D-TRACR). Even if the Mavericks crumble offensively
\nwithout Irving, the defense alone should be enough to keep them
\nfrom being a bottom-feeder in the Western Conference.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Top<\/p>\n

NBA Teams That Will Underperform
\nBoston Celtics<\/p>\n

Preseason TRACR: 8th in NBA, 2nd in Eastern
\nConference<\/p>\n

Why They Will Underperform: Despite our model
\naccounting for the team being without Jayson Tatum for all of next
\nyear, it still sees the Celtics being a strong contender in the
\nEastern Conference. Part of the reason for this is that the model
\nassumes that Al Horford (89th percentile DRIP) will re-sign with
\nthe team, which, at this point, is very
\nunlikely<\/a>.<\/p>\n

It also believes that Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and Payton
\nPritchard will be enough to keep Boston afloat without Tatum. But
\nthere has always been a big disconnect between the perception of
\nBrown and his impact on winning. Brown won the 2024 NBA Finals MVP,
\nbut he wasn\u2019t even in the top five on the team in DRIP when last
\nseason ended.<\/p>\n

On top of that, they have very little depth. Outside of the trio
\nwe mentioned above, the only other surefire rotation players
\ncurrently on the roster are Anfernee Simons and Sam Hauser. Not to
\nmention the gaping hole this team has at the 5 spot (the Celtics
\ndon\u2019t have a single center in the top 200 in DRIP on their
\nroster).\u00a0<\/p>\n

Minnesota
\nTimberwolves<\/p>\n

Preseason TRACR: 2nd in NBA, 2nd in Western
\nConference<\/p>\n

Why They Will Underperform: The Timberwolves
\nwent to their second straight Western Conference finals in 2025,
\nand with them set to welcome back their top eight players in DRIP,
\nour model sees them as a strong candidate to continue their success
\nin 2025-26.<\/p>\n

But if we\u2019ve learned anything over the last few years, it\u2019s that
\nthe league is rapidly growing, and banking on continuity isn\u2019t
\nenough to get the job done. There\u2019s a reason we\u2019ve had seven
\nstraight new champions.<\/p>\n

Losing Nickeil Alexander-Walker in free agency to the Atlanta
\nHawks (a
\ngreat move by them<\/a>, by the way) could be offset by the internal
\ndevelopment of young players like Terrence Shannon Jr., Jaylen
\nClark and Rob Dillingham. But even then, this team stayed largely
\nthe same, with key figures like Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle and Mike
\nConley another year older, and multiple Western Conference
\ncompetitors getting notably stronger (the Denver Nuggets, Houston
\nRockets, and Los Angeles Clippers).<\/p>\n

Don\u2019t be surprised if they go from West finalists to first-round
\nexit in just the span of a year.<\/p>\n

\"Preseason
\nSacramento Kings<\/p>\n

Preseason TRACR: 12th in NBA, 9th in the
\nWestern Conference<\/p>\n

Why They Will Underperform: Our supercomputer
\nis high on the Kings because their heavy-hitters (Domantas Sabonis,
\nDeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Keegan Murray) are generally pretty
\navailable. In this instance, though, availability isn\u2019t the best
\nability.<\/p>\n

This roster makes very little sense. The Kings have way too many
\nguards (LaVine, DeRozan, Dennis Schroder, Malik Monk, Keon Ellis
\nand Devin Carter), no real backup center (Saric and Drew Eubanks
\nare currently slated behind Sabonis), and very little by way of
\ndefense (which will make it tricky for them to finish outside the
\nbottom 10 in D-TRACR like our model projects).<\/p>\n

We love the idea of
\ntrading up to draft Nique Clifford<\/a>, but outside of that, there
\nis little about this team that suggests that it won\u2019t be a
\nbottom-five team in the Western Conference.\u00a0<\/p>\n

For more
\ncoverage, follow along on social media on\u00a0Instagram<\/a>,\u00a0Bluesky<\/a>,\u00a0Facebook<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0X<\/a>.<\/p>\n