Ireland’s seeding for the Thursday’s World Cup play-off draw was confirmed this evening, with Heimir Hallgrimsson’s side receiving a slight blow to their qualification chances.

Ireland required favours from both Austria and North Macedonia in their games tonight in order to be confirmed as second seeds, with both sides needing to avoid defeat against Bosnia & Herzegovina and Wales respectively. Unfortunately, North Macedonia would suffer a heavy defeat in Cardiff.

Ireland will now be third seeds for the draw.

Not only does that mean they will face a higher ranked side in the semi-finals of the play-off, but they will also be away from home for the game. Home advantage for the final will be decided in the draw later this week.

With the teams in all four pots now confirmed, here are the best and worst case scenarios for Ireland ahead of the draw at 12pm on Thursday.

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Best & Worst Case Scenarios For Ireland In World Cup Play-Off Draw
Best Case Scenario For Ireland In World Cup Play-Off Draw

Semi-Final: Czechia (Away)
Final: Ukraine/North Macedonia (Home)

Ireland’s status as third seeds for the draw means that they will face a higher ranked ranked team in the play-off semi-final, taking on a team from pot 2 away from home. They would then face the winner of a semi-final between a first and fourth seed should they reach the final.

Ireland’s potential opponents in that first game will be Poland, Wales, Slovakia, or Czechia.

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Of that bunch, Czechia would be the best case scenario. They have had some very results in recent times, including a loss to Faroe Islands earlier in the campaign.

Ukraine would be the weakest of the top seeds, and while Northern Ireland would be a good draw in a vacuum, such a derby game would bring about plenty of uncertainty. A side note, an away draw against Ukraine would likely be played in a neutral venue (probably Poland) due to the ongoing conflict in the country.

As a result, North Macedonia would be the most favourable draw potential final opponent for Ireland from pot 4. Of course, it is unlikely that the bottom seed will beat the top side in that semi-final.

 

Worst Case Scenario For Ireland In World Cup Play-Off Draw

Semi-Final: Poland (Away)
Final: Italy/Sweden (Away)

A trip to Poland would be a difficult task for Ireland, with the Polish having a very strong record of tournament qualification in recent times. Ireland also have a fairly questionable record against the Poles down through the years.

A trip to Italy in a potential final would be somewhat of a nightmare scenario for Heimir Hallgrimsson’s side, even if the Italians do have a poor recent record in play-offs.

Sweden had a disastrous qualification campaign, but they certainly have the most talented squad in Pot 4. The likes of Alexander Isak, Viktor Gyokeres, and Anthony Elanga are not the type of attacking talent you would like to face in a one-off fixture.

Summary

Best Case: Czechia (Away), then Ukraine/North Macedonia (Home)

Worst Case: Poland (Away), then Italy/Sweden (Away)

The best case scenario would certainly give Ireland a good chance of reaching next summer’s World Cup. However, they would be facing an uphill battle were the worst case scenario to occur.

In any case, we will know on Thursday evening where the team stands heading into the March window.

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