MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Flash PMI data for eurozone, Germany, France, U.K.; France monthly business survey; U.K. public sector finances, retail sales; trading updates for ASOS, Babcock International
Opening Call:
European stock futures traded lower early Friday amid renewed worries over valuations of AI companies. Asian stock benchmarks tracked U.S. indexes lower; the dollar and Treasury yields were little changed; while oil and gold futures fell.
Equities:
Stock futures point to a lower open on Friday in European markets.
Optimism over Nvidia’s strong results dissipated as many investors still worry the swollen valuations of AI companies and their aggressive spending plans could mark signs of a bubble.
“What stands out to me is the lack of any substantial shift in narrative to cause such a big shift,” said Tony Roth, chief investment officer at Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors. “There’s just not a lot of confidence in the market right now.”
Investors are also increasingly jittery about how tech giants are using large and complex debt deals to finance the infrastructure build-out.
Forex:
The dollar faces profit-taking risks ahead of next week’s Thanksgiving holiday-shortened U.S. trading week, said Philip Wee at DBS.
U.S. stock indexes have been unable to shake off persistent AI stock overvaluation worries amid signs that investors are seeking safety in Treasurys, he says.
Bonds:
“Overall, the bond market if anything got lucky with this [nonfarm payrolls] print,” TS Lombard’s Freya Beamish said. She said Trump’s anti-immigration efforts could be tightening labor supply, “underlining the stickiness of wage growth.”
Beamish expects the Fed to pause in December and cut in 1H 2026. She foresees “more inflationary dynamics” helping keep the Fed more hawkish than markets are currently pricing.
Energy:
Oil futures fell in Asia as the U.S. presented a plan to restart peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, reducing risk premium a day before U.S. sanctions on Russia are set to go into effect.
“If a cease-fire in Ukraine does come to fruition and sanctions on Russia are lifted, I would think WTI crude oil trades sharply lower and takes out the $55.12 level from April 9,” Mizuho’s Robert Yawger said.
U.S. sanctions on Russia’s major oil producers have been holding up oil prices amid market concerns about large coming oversupply.
Metals:
Indecision has become more evident as market expectations shift around the Federal Reserve’s policy path ahead following the release of September jobs data, says FOREX.com’s Julian Pineda.
Central banks’ demand for gold remains solid and, in tandem with monetary policy uncertainty, appears to be driving prolonged neutrality in prices of the precious metal. “If this dynamic continues, indecision in gold’s price movements is likely to persist in the near term,” he adds.
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Iron ore prices fell in Asia, weighed by high inventory and lower demand. Demand has been weak recently given the lack of profitability of steel mills, Baocheng Futures said.
Inventories remain high and overseas shipments have been strong as well, both weighing on prices, it added.
TODAY’S TOP HEADLINES
U.K. Consumer Confidence Falls Ahead of Budget
U.K. consumer sentiment slipped in November, with households tightening the purse strings ahead of the budget and a crucial holiday season for retailers.
Consumer confidence fell two points to minus 19 in the month, according to research group GfK’s index, published with the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions on Friday. The survey, which gauged the sentiment of around 2,000 consumers, fell short of a consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal, which expected the index to remain flat at minus 17.
The Middle Class Is Buckling Under Almost Five Years of Persistent Inflation
America’s middle class is weary.
After nearly five years of high prices, many middle-class earners thought life would be more affordable by now. Costs for goods and services are 25% above where they were in 2020. Even though the inflation rate is below its recent 2022 high, certain essentials like coffee, ground beef and car repairs are up markedly this year.
U.S. Sanctions Loosen Russia’s Grip on Serbia by Forcing Sale of Oil Company
BELGRADE, Serbia-U.S. sanctions are forcing the sale of Russia’s flagship oil company in Serbia, loosening Moscow’s grip on a country that has been a historical partner and a base for projecting influence in the Balkans.
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, based in the United Arab Emirates, is in talks to buy Russia’s stake in energy behemoth NIS, according to an official U.S. document seen by The Wall Street Journal. The deal to purchase NIS, which is Serbia’s only oil importer and domestic refiner, could still fall apart.
Trump Peace Plan Demands Major Concessions From Ukraine
WASHINGTON-The Trump administration’s peace plan for Ukraine demands sweeping territorial and security concessions from Kyiv while offering Moscow major economic and political incentives, including U.S. recognition of its claims to parts of Ukraine, to halt the nearly four-year-old war.
The White House has been pursuing a deal to end the conflict since President Trump took office in January, but the details of the terms he and his top aides were offering Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have been kept largely under wraps until now.
Paramount, Comcast and Netflix Submit Bids for Warner Bros. Discovery
Paramount, Comcast and Netflix have submitted bids for Warner Bros. Discovery, owner of the storied Warner Bros. movie and television studio and HBO, according to people familiar with the matter.
The bids submitted are nonbinding, and additional rounds are expected, The Wall Street Journal previously reported. Warner Discovery has indicated it would like to have the process concluded by the end of the year.
The Chip CEO Staring Down Nvidia and Talk of an AI Bubble
AUSTIN, Texas-At a board meeting in late 2022, Lisa Su, chief executive of chip designer Advanced Micro Devices, announced that she was radically changing course.
“I’m going to pivot the entire company,” she told the directors gathered around a boardroom table at the company’s Austin campus. The rise of artificial intelligence was a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity,” she said, and the company had to put AI at the center of its entire product line.
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Expected Major Events for Friday
00:01/UK: Nov UK Consumer Confidence Survey
05:30/NED: Oct House Price Index
07:00/SWE: 3Q Industrial capacity utilization
07:00/UK: Oct Public sector finances
07:00/NOR: 3Q Labour Cost Index – preliminary figures
07:00/UK: Oct UK monthly retail sales figures
07:00/DEN: Nov Business tendency survey
07:00/SWE: 3Q Industrial inventories
07:45/FRA: Nov Monthly business survey (goods-producing industries)
08:00/SPN: Sep Industrial Orders & Turnover
08:15/FRA: Nov France Flash PMI
08:30/GER: Nov Germany Flash PMI
09:00/ICE: Oct Harmonized CPI
09:00/EU: Nov Eurozone Flash PMI
09:30/UK: Nov Flash UK PMI
11:00/FRA: 3Q OECD trade statistics release
11:00/IRL: Oct WPI
17:59/POR: Sep ICSG Copper Report
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
11-21-25 0017ET