Up to 1,000 hospital beds will be needed for people requiring admission for the flu as part of a surge in cases expected in the coming weeks, doctors have warned.
The Irish Medical Organisation (IMO) said the equivalent of two large hospitals will soon be occupied by patients with flu across the State.
This would put significant pressure on a hospital system already challenged by a shortage of beds, the doctors’ trade union said.
Dr Peadar Gilligan, consultant in emergency medicine at Dublin’s Beaumont Hospital, said nine people have died as a result of flu this year in Ireland. All but one were over the age of 65.
“The flu has come early and is accelerating in terms of the number of cases presenting to general practice and emergency departments,” said Dr Gilligan, who is a member of the IMO’s consultant committee.
He said cases reported to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC) have doubled over the last two weeks, while more than 500 people have been hospitalised with the flu. This figure is projected to surpass 1,000 in the coming weeks, he said.
Dr Gilligan said the surge in patients needing hospital admission has again highlighted the shortage of beds in the health system.
“Irish acute hospitals run at 97 per cent to 110 per cent occupancy due to inadequate capacity in the system to address the healthcare needs of our population,” he said. “This allows for little or no capacity to deal with any increase in workload.”
Dr Gilligan said that, even before the influenza season started, most acute hospitals were using their surge capacity, including assigning inpatients to chairs and trolleys in day wards and dealing with extra patients on wards and emergency department corridors.
“The rise in patient attendances to emergency departments and the associated increased numbers requiring admission to hospital leads to real challenges in providing safe care,” he said.
“Before the flu season began we already had ambulances waiting outside emergency departments and ambulance crews waiting with patients in emergency departments because there was no cubicle space available for them to transfer the patient to.” This prevents ambulances from being available to deal with the next emergency, he said.
“Crowding of acute hospitals both in their emergency departments and on their wards leads to challenges in reducing the spread of infection. Hospitalised patients are already sick and it is important that they are not exposed to an increased risk of infection when in emergency departments and on hospital wards.”
Last week the HSE warned it had seen a surge in cases of flu and that health services could come under significant pressure in the coming weeks.
HSE chief clinical officer Colm Henry said during the week that the health service was seeing a “rapid increase of cases of patients with influenza, including those needing hospitalisation”.
“There has been an earlier start to the influenza season and we are concerned at the risk this presents to those susceptible to more severe disease,” he said. Those most at risk include people over 60 years of age, people with underlying medical conditions, pregnant women and people who are immunocompromised.
“It is imperative that those groups take action now to protect themselves now in order to get the protection they need,” said Dr Henry.
The HSE said modelling by the HPSC “projected significant pressures on healthcare services in the coming weeks”.
It said 418 flu cases were reported in hospitals the week ending November 29th, compared to 213 the week before.