Scientists are monitoring one of the biggest sunspot groups of the past decade, though experts say the likelihood of a major solar storm similar to the historic 1859 Carrington Event remains low
Region 486 unleashed a record flare last week(Image: NASA)
A massive sunspot cluster roughly the size of the one responsible for the most powerful solar storm ever recorded has rotated into view on the sun’s Earth-facing side, now pointing directly toward our planet.
But scientists are urging calm, noting that while auroras and minor tech disruptions may occur over the next several days, this new formation is highly unlikely to trigger another Carrington Event, according to Live Science. The formation, designated AR 4294-4296, comprises two magnetically linked sunspot groups, AR 4294 and AR 4296. It became visible on Nov. 28 as it rotated into view on the sun’s western edge.
Interestingly, NASA’s Perseverance Mars rover had already detected these dark regions roughly a week before they appeared from Earth’s perspective, while monitoring the sun’s far side.
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New sunspot cluster approaches 90% of historic Carrington Event sunspot’s dimensions.
The Carrington Event of 1859 set fire to telegraph stations(Image: NASA)
The report indicates AR 4294-4296 measures close to the dimensions of a massive sunspot documented by British astronomer Richard Carrington in September 1859, which later produced the “Carrington Event” – the strongest solar storm in human history. While the current complex may look bigger initially, its dark regions actually span about 90% of the Carrington sunspot’s area, reports the Express.
Sunspots pose potential threat for intense solar flares and coronal mass ejections Sunspots have the ability to emit potent bursts of radiation, or solar flares, when their unseen magnetic field lines twist and break, releasing energy into space. These explosive eruptions can cause temporary radio blackouts on Earth and send large, fast-moving clouds of plasma, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), hurtling towards our planet.
This can disrupt Earth’s magnetic field and interfere with electronics, while also creating stunning auroras in the night sky.
Spaceweather.com reports that the new dark spots are “one of the biggest sunspot groups of the past 10 years” and have the potential to release supercharged X-class flares – the most powerful category on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s solar flare classification system. If a CME is indeed unleashed, the resulting solar storm “will be geoeffective,” they added.
The record-breaking X45 solar flare from the Carrington Event and its possible impact on modern infrastructure is also noteworthy.
The Carrington Event of 1859 unleashed a record-breaking X45 magnitude solar flare, the likes of which have not been seen since, although geological evidence suggests even more powerful blasts occurred before human existence. To put it in perspective, an X45 flare is over five times stronger than the most potent solar flare of the past decade—an X7 blast in October 2024.
Recent simulations show that if a similar blast hit Earth today, it would wipe out all satellites in orbit and cause chaos on the ground, potentially damaging parts of the electrical grid, with total damages easily surpassing $1 trillion.
However, size isn’t everything when it comes to solar flares: The magnetic field configuration and explosion frequency also matter.
While larger sunspots can potentially trigger more powerful solar flares, size alone doesn’t guarantee a massive solar storm. The arrangement of a sunspot’s magnetic field and how often it explodes are crucial factors in determining its maximum explosive potential, meaning some giant sunspots can be entirely harmless.
The magnetic fields of AR 4294-4296 are quite intertwined, suggesting that flares are possible, and the complex has already released a potential X-class flare while still on the sun’s far side, according to Spaceweather.com. However, despite this, experts say there’s no clear indication of a superstorm on the level of the Carrington Event in the near future.
Scientists are keeping a close watch on AR 4294-4296’s magnetic field for indicators of approaching activity.
Researchers will be paying particularly close attention to the magnetic field of the latest giant for hints of upcoming activity. However, if it happens to spin past Earth without any eruptions, the massive dark patches are probably substantial enough to endure more than one journey around the sun, suggesting they could return for “round two” sometime around Christmas.
As the enormous sunspot cluster AR 4294-4296 aims directly at Earth, specialists encourage the public to stay composed and avoid alarm. While auroras and some technological disruptions are possible during the upcoming week, the probability of a second Carrington Event remains minimal.
Researchers will continue to carefully observe the complex’s magnetic field for indicators of approaching activity and evaluate its potential impact on our planet.