Intel (INTC) is back under the microscope after a fresh wave of concerns that it is lagging in the AI race, with rising costs, legal overhangs, and deal missteps all weighing on sentiment.
See our latest analysis for Intel.
Those worries are hitting a stock that has already run hard, with a roughly 64% 3 month share price return and about 90% 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum is now being tested rather than building.
If Intel’s mixed signals have you reassessing your semiconductor exposure, this could be a good moment to explore other high growth tech and AI stocks that might offer cleaner AI upside.
With Intel trading slightly above the average analyst price target and carrying a richer multiple than many legacy peers, investors now face a tougher call: is the stock still mispriced, or already discounting an ambitious AI turnaround?
With Intel’s last close at $39.51 and the most popular narrative pointing to fair value around $37.27, investors are weighing a modest premium for the turnaround story.
Supportive balance sheet actions and aggressive investment in product and foundry buildout are viewed as increasing the probability that Intel can narrow its technology and scale gap with leading foundry peers over time, which underpins higher valuation multiples.
Curious why a company with slow top line assumptions and still recovering profitability can command such a rich future earnings multiple in this narrative? The forecast blends steady revenue, expanding margins, and a striking re rating of profits that looks more like a high growth leader than a restructuring heavyweight. Want to see exactly how these moving parts justify today’s premium over fair value?
Result: Fair Value of $37.27 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, lingering execution risks in Intel’s AI and foundry strategy, along with potential margin pressure from capital intensity, could still undermine this optimistic turnaround narrative.
Find out about the key risks to this Intel narrative.
While the popular narrative sees Intel only 6% over fair value, our DCF model is far harsher, putting fair value closer to $15.17 per share. That gap implies the market may be pricing in a much smoother AI and foundry turnaround than the cash flows support. Which story do you trust more: the mood or the math?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
INTC Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025
If you see the story differently or want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom Intel narrative in minutes: Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Intel research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
Before you move on, take a moment to uncover fresh opportunities so you are not relying solely on Intel when the next big winner emerges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include INTC.
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