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Jagwar needs to defy December Gold Cup trends if he’s to mark his comeback with a bang at Cheltenham on Saturday.
Recent history suggests match action is key to success yet the Cheltenham Festival winner is running for the first time since scoring in the Plate Handicap Chase in March.
It’ll be interesting to see if support comes in for Jagwar as favourites have a poor record in the Premier Handicap, which is being run in support of The Hunt Family Fund this year.
December Gold Cup odds are on the Paddy Power website and app, otherwise, key historical trends from the last 10 renewals and tips based off the big-race stats are below.
December Gold Cup 2025 trends
DISTANCE FORM
10/10 had won at least once over 2m4f to 2m5f
A trio of fancied runners are early fallers as Hoe Joly Smoke, Kim Roque and Vincenzo have all failed to score over this trip.
LAST TIME OUT
10/10 were returning from 36-day breaks or shorter
A concern emerges over Jagwar as the Plate Handicap Chase winner has been off the track for 275 days since his Cheltenham Festival success.
Ga Law and Imperial Saint have not been seen for 42 days and 48 days respectively.
RATING
10/10 were rated 132 or higher
Hoe Joly Smoke (131), Kim Roque (125) and Glengouly (121) all lack the necessary class, according to the handicapper.
AGE
9/10 were aged between four and eight
It’s a mark against 10-year-old Es Perfecto as there have been just three double-digit aged winners in the history of the race.
WEIGHT
9/10 carried 11st 5lbs or less
Grand Sefton scorer Colonel Harry is lumbered with 11st 8lbs. It’s another concern over Ga Law (12st) and Jagwar (11st 8lbs).
December Gold Cup 2025 trends verdict
The stats highlight concerns over the market leaders and point in the direction of IL RIDOTO, who finished second in the 2023 edition, and the Venetia Williams-trained MARTATOR.
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