CEOs at the world’s biggest companies are preparing to dump even more money into AI next year, despite mounting evidence that their existing investments aren’t actually paying off.
The Wall Street Journal reported today that 68% of chief executives plan to increase AI spending in 2026, citing an annual survey of more than 350 public-company CEOs conducted by advisory firm Teneo. Bewilderingly, those same executives admitted that fewer than half of their current AI projects have generated returns that exceeded their initial costs. The survey focused on CEOs at public companies with at least $1 billion in annual revenue and was conducted this fall.
The survey’s findings arrive as fears of an AI bubble continue to rise. AI investments now account for roughly 40% of U.S. GDP growth in 2025, and AI companies are responsible for about 80% of gains in the American stock market. Despite the U.S. economy becoming more dependent on AI, there is surprisingly little to show for it as of now, even in small ways at non-AI corporations.
Wall Street analysts have increasingly noted the circular nature of major AI investments. For example, Nvidia announced this year that it is investing $100 million in OpenAI, which then turns around and buys Nvidia chips for data centers it has planned with Oracle. Making things worse, those data centers have been slow to materialize. Reports that Oracle is delaying some of its data center projects have only heightened Wall Street’s anxiety, as they push any tangible payoffs further into the future. Meanwhile, AI companies continue to promise that more advanced models will unlock significant productivity gains, spark innovation, and maybe even help cure diseases.
Non-AI companies have already started putting the tech to the test, rolling out AI tools across various departments including customer service, IT, marketing, and human resources. But there’s still little evidence that even in those spaces AI tools are transforming operations or even meaningfully improving bottom lines.
Today’s survey echoes a report released by MIT in August. Despite the major push to adopt AI in the corporate world, fewer than one in ten AI pilot programs have produced real revenue gains, the report found. The MIT analysis drew from 150 executive interviews, a survey of 350 employees, and a review of 300 public AI deployments.
“Just 5% of integrated AI pilots are extracting millions in value, while the vast majority remain stuck with no measurable [profit and loss] impact,” the report said. Meaning that “95 per cent of organizations are getting zero return.”
The findings briefly rattled investors and sent AI stocks sliding at the time.
And yet, CEOs still appear convinced that AI will eventually justify the spending spree. According to Teneo’s survey, 84% of leaders at companies with more than $10 billion in annual revenue believe it will take longer than six months for AI investments to start paying off.