In a rare display of quiet persistence, the Nifty has logged eight consecutive winning sessions — a feat that has gone largely unnoticed in portfolios. The understated 500-point climb of just 2.17% may be masking preparations for an explosive rally, as technical indicators flash increasingly bullish signals.
“Nifty is on the verge of breaking out from a Symmetrical Triangle pattern on the daily chart, a setup that often signals an impending sharp directional move,” said Sudeep Shah, Vice-President & Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. The technical setup is turning more favourable: “The daily RSI has moved above the 60 level for the first time since July 2025, signaling strengthening momentum.”
The stealth rally has been powered by hopes of deeper Fed rate cuts, despite a hotter-than-expected US CPI print and Trump’s tariff threats creating crosscurrents. Wall Street scaling fresh highs has provided additional tailwinds, with the IT sector leading the domestic rebound, spearheaded by Infosys.
Shah’s analysis reveals broad-based participation brewing beneath the surface: “Among Nifty components, 82% are trading above their 20-day EMA, while 76% are above their 50-day EMA — suggesting broad-based participation in the ongoing rally.” He sees the 25,150–25,200 zone as near-term resistance, with “a sustained move above 25,200 triggering a sharp rally towards 25,500, and eventually 25,700 in the short term.”
The measured nature of the advance is actually a bullish sign, according to Anand James of Geojit Investments: “The slowness of the recent strides is in fact a function of subdued volatility expectations or lack of surprise elements. This is reflected in the fact that VIX has been on a steady decline since April, and has stayed near 10 all week, implying that traders were not expecting large moves.”
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James remains cautiously optimistic: “While we are positive on continuation of the uptrend, upside objectives may be limited to 25,400–25,600 for now. Downside markers may be placed near 24,950.”Also Read | Diwali rally watch: Is Trump the last piece of the puzzle for Nifty breakout?Rupak De of LKP Securities views the current move as methodical positioning: “The Nifty’s recent up move looks more like a cautious rally rather than a sharp price rise, as investors embrace both positive and negative news. The index is consolidating gains, gradually building a base. As long as it holds above key support around 24,850, the bias remains positive.”
The fundamental backdrop is also supportive. Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments, highlighted the contrasting macro pictures: “The US market is bullish on expectations of a Fed rate cut on September 17. A 25 bps cut is the near consensus now,” he said, while cautioning that “rising inflation in the US, which came in at 2.9% YoY in August, is likely to worsen from tariff pass-through.”
In contrast, India’s macro environment remains robust. Strong financial stability as reflected in FD and CAD numbers, healthy GDP growth prospects, and falling inflation are all positive indicators. Vijayakumar pointed to upcoming consumer demand drivers: “After September 22, the sharp rise in demand for consumer durables, particularly automobiles, will dominate economic and business news.”
This resurgence can be attributed to expectations of limited impact on the domestic economy, the Indian government’s robust strategic response to US long-term policies, and significant domestic reforms such as GST rationalization. The upturn has also been supported by optimism over stronger H2FY26 earnings, aided by GST rationalization and monetary easing.
Vinay Paharia, CIO of PGIM India Mutual Fund, sees a structural shift underway: “After two years of strong performance, the market is currently in a consolidation phase, digesting past gains and recalibrating amid global and domestic shifts. However, we see a clear trend of outperformance in high quality–high growth strategies, while the basket of low quality–low growth companies and parts of the market that were in bubble territory are seeing a deceleration.”
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The wild card remains Trump’s tariff policies. “The joker in the pack will be the Trump tariffs. So, watch out for developments on that front,” warned Vijayakumar, noting that recent positive signals from the US on reinitiating trade discussions with India have paved the way for the index to ascend into a new range.
As the Nifty quietly builds momentum through its eighth consecutive session of gains, all eyes are now on whether this stealth accumulation will culminate in the explosive breakout that technical charts increasingly suggest.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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