As the year draws to a close, there are signs that Northern Ireland has delivered stronger economic performance than many expected at the start of 2025.
And this is particularly impressive in a business environment still impacted by cost pressures and the post-Brexit adjustment.
On the most widely watched barometer, the Northern Ireland Composite Economic Index, output continued to expand.
Economic activity in the second quarter was up 3.5% on an annual basis and now sits more than 12% above its pre-pandemic level.
Services have been the main engine of growth, with consumer-facing activity performing strongly. Taken together, this points to an economy that has continued to build momentum through 2025.
The labour market tells a similar story. Employment growth has been strong, with provisional HMRC data pointing to a 1.2% increase in payrolled employees in the year to November. This would make Northern Ireland the only UK region to have growth in employment over the period.
It is striking that the fastest-growing employment hot spots over this period are not in London or the South East, but in Mid Ulster and Antrim & Newtownabbey.
There has been good news on the earnings front as well, with the same HMRC data showing a 5.2% increase in average pay in the year to October 2025.
Again, Northern Ireland leads the way across the UK and was the only region outside London to see pay substantively outpacing inflation.
Not all the indicators are moving in the right direction. Northern Ireland continues to have a large share of people out of the workforce, classified as economically inactive. This has been a long-standing structural issue and, despite the strong jobs market, inactivity has increased further this year.
The statistics show that more than one in four working-age adults are not actively participating in the employment market, with health-related inactivity and caring responsibilities remaining significant factors.
It’s been a strong year for investment, not least a flurry of announcements in September from Seagate investing further in the north west and new investment announcements from major US financial services firms in Belfast.
Trade data are less encouraging, with a 1% fall in the value of goods exports in the year to September, compared to the previous year. Exports to the EU have been growing though, driven by strong growth in exports to Ireland.
Taken as a whole, the picture is positive, and all eyes will be on the data coming out over the course of 2026 to see whether the momentum can be maintained.
Greg Boyd, Northern Ireland economist at PwC UK
Long-term issues remain though, including Northern Ireland’s productivity challenges, the rate of economic inactivity and the sustained cost pressures facing both businesses and households.
Greg Boyd is Northern Ireland economist at PwC UK