Ireland needs to encourage larger families and welcome more migrants as numbers of children and workers born here fall, according to a report to the Oireachtas.
“Ireland is undergoing a series of demographic shifts and has already passed two notable turning points: ‘peak baby’ in 2010 and ‘peak child’ in 2024, both reflecting a sharp and sustained fall in births,” said the Building a Virtuous Demographic Cycle report, published by the National Economic and Social Council (NESC) on Monday.
The year 2010 marked the point when there were the most births – 77,000 – in one year while 2024 was the point at which the number of children being born began to decline.
Births have declined steadily since 2010, to 54,000 last year.
On current trends, “within a decade” the ratio of workers to non-workers “will narrow”, the NESC said, noting the population is projected to contract by the 2050s.
“Without timely, co-ordinated action, these trends will place increasing pressure on public finances, social protection and essential services,” the report said.
The council, whose chair is appointed by the Government, reports to the Oireachtas on strategic issues relating to the economy and social justice.
Its report said there are “long-term challenges for labour force renewal, economic vitality and the sustainability of intergenerational supports”.
Births have declined steadily since 2010, to 54,000 last year. Photograph: Guillem de Balanzo/Getty Images
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In a context of immediate pressures on housing, public services and infrastructural deficits, there may be an “impulse to aim for lower population growth and migration” the report said. This could create a “vicious cycle”, it cautioned.
“The effect of this is that fertility declines further, emigration rises, and the population continues to age,” the report said.
“Fiscal and pension pressures mount, constraining future investment and creating a downward spiral of stagnation, as well as intergenerational and regional unfairness. Once established, such dynamics can be very difficult to reverse.”
Instead, the NESC recommended planning for a “virtuous cycle” which sees demographic growth “as an opportunity and invests accordingly”.
This will require investment in services, especially affordable housing, childcare, accessible public transport and creating an employment environment that accommodates care responsibilities and largely untapped cohorts like disabled and older people and lone parents.
“Fertility may be stabilised through stronger family supports: affordable childcare and housing, adequate parental leave, and income and welfare policies that de-risk family formation,” it said.
It called for measures to attract migrants especially younger ones who will want to have children here. “The core demographic group that typically fuels migration flows – people aged in their 20s – is projected to decline and will be increasingly in demand across other ageing societies,” in coming years, it noted.
“Stronger integration policies, long-term settlement opportunities and support for returning emigrants are vital. A social contract of migration is needed where the state invests in integration and communities, and migrants are supported to contribute and settle.
“This can strengthen cohesion and public confidence in migration,” it said.
It said that if its recommendations are implemented across Government, the results will include a stabilised population age structure, increased workforce participation, fiscal sustainability and greater capacity to invest in services.
“This eases infrastructure pressures, improves the quality of life, and strengthens integration and retention of citizens,” said the report.