United Rugby Championship: Leinster v Connacht, Aviva Stadium, Saturday, 5.30 – Live on TG4 and Premier Sports
Addressing an argument about whether winning matches supersedes all other considerations, including performance levels, requires a little more nuance than pointing exclusively to the outcome as the sole arbiter and is often distorted by perspective in the post-match scrutiny: objective, subjective or the lesser spotted halfway house.
Leinster lost three of their first four matches in the URC, both games in South Africa, and suffered a heavy 31-14 defeat to Munster at Croke Park. From that point, they have won six on the bounce, four in the league and two Champions Cup pool matches against Harlequins (45-28) and Leicester Tigers (23-15).
They have done so with a significant injury profile in terms of frontline players and while adhering to the national player management programme. The cohesion that comes with continuity in selection terms has been compromised and that’s been very evident in aspects of their performances to date. Victories offer a salve of sorts, but it doesn’t camouflage the in-game wobbles.
Leinster head coach Leo Cullen has made nine changes to the team that demonstrated a gritty resilience and determination to escape Thomond Park with a victory last week, displaying traits common to those that helped to eke out a similarly narrow win over Ulster just before Christmas.
Connacht’s visit to Dublin sees their hosts immersed in the second half of a tough seven-match schedule that includes four Champions Cup matches and three interprovincials. La Rochelle are in town next week so Rieko Ioane, James Lowe, Rónan Kelleher, Tadhg Furlong, James Ryan and Caelan Doris get a chance to recharge physically and mentally.
Ciarán Frawley, who signed a contract to join Connacht in the summer, continues his run at fullback while there is a new midfield pairing in Hugh Cooney and Charlie Tector; the latter replaced the injured Robbie Henshaw in the first half against Munster.
Leinster’s Charlie Tector. Photograph: Ryan Byrne/Inpho
They are accomplished young players who will be weighed and measured by Bundee Aki and a fit again David Hawkshaw with Cathal Forde waiting in reserve. The battle on the wings will be a fascinating watch, Tommy O’Brien against Finn Treacy and the free-scoring Joshua Kenny opposing Chay Mullins, who boasts a similar athletic profile to the Leinster man.
Sam Prendergast is restored to the 10 jersey, while up front Dan Sheehan returns and will captain the side, with Brian Deeny, Diarmuid Mangan, Will Connors (back for a first game since October) and Jack Conan freshening up the pack.
It’s good to see Conor O’Tighearnaigh getting his first chance this season off the bench. He possesses the desirable qualities of size, athleticism and a better than average skill set. A six-two split means that Luke McGrath and Harry Byrne represent the backline cover.
Connacht head coach Stuart Lancaster has made five changes from the side that lost 29-24 to Ulster in Galway, a late flourish of 14 points on the scoreboard perhaps softening the disappointment a tad but more likely leaving a pocketful of regrets that they were not able summon a greater urgency and accuracy earlier in the contest.
Mullins and Hawkshaw are promoted in the three-quarter line while Josh Ioane and Matthew Devine form a new halfback pairing. Dylan Tierney-Martin replaces Dave Heffernan at hooker in the only change to the pack. In real terms Hawkshaw, Ioane, Devine, Tierney-Martin were on the bench last week, while Fiachna Barrett and Darragh Murray fulfil that role once again.
Kildare native Billy Bohan made an auspicious start to his Connacht career on debut by winning a scrum penalty when introduced fresh from the bench against the Georgian side, Black Lion in a recent Challenge Cup match.
Connacht’s Billy Bohan. Photograph: James Crombie/Inpho
The 20-year-old from Newbridge is a former Irish 20s international and playing in matches of this ilk, where he may potentially scrum against Thomas Clarkson and Rabah Slimani, represent an elite benchmarking process. Paul Boyle has recovered from injury and is included among the replacements as is young outhalf Harry West.
In an ideal world it would be great to see Shayne Bolton and Hugh Gavin, who made try-scoring debuts for Ireland against Portugal in the summer, in action at the Aviva Stadium this evening but there are constraints, injury and otherwise, that thwarted the prospect.
An Ireland XV take on England A at Thomond Park on Friday, February 6th so there is that background context regarding individual tussles, both in Belfast and Dublin this weekend. That is an ancillary concern to the main thrust of winning matches.
While Leinster won’t get too sniffy about the aesthetics, Cullen and his fellow coaches will be hoping for a greater fluency to their attacking patterns. They will look to elevate the basics of run, catch and pass to the desired levels, while retaining the uncompromising power game of which the pack is eminently capable from the set piece to the breakdown and beyond.
It will be about making good use of possession and that a scratch three-quarter line can transfer training ground accuracy to the match environment with enough zip and shape to create space and build on whatever platform the pack constructs. The bench is formidable, capable of accumulating points in double quick time.
Connacht will look to squeeze newly minted partnerships into mistakes and apply pressure where they can without deviating from their commitment to be creative, led by Ioane, and his clever range of passing in chasing opportunities in the wider channels. A kick-led strategy is unlikely to suffice.
Leinster are heavy favourites, and that should be reflected in a bonus-point win, but there is more at stake, no matter what the viewpoint is adopted to parse the result.
Leinster: C Frawley: T O’Brien, H Cooney, C Tector, J Kenny; S Prendergast, J Gibson-Park; A Porter, D Sheehan (capt), T Clarkson; J McCarthy, B Deeny, D Mangan, W Connors, J Conan. Replacements: G McCarthy, J Boyle, R Slimani, C O’Tighearnaigh, M Deegan, J van der Flier, L McGrath, H Byrne.
Connacht: S Gilbert; C Mullins, David Hawkshaw, B Aki, F Treacy; J Ioane, M Devine; D Buckley, D Tierney-Martin, F Bealham; J Joyce, D O’Connor; J Murphy, C Prendergast (capt), S Jansen. Replacements: E de Buitlear, B Bohan, F Barrett, D Murray, P Boyle, B Murphy, H West, C Forde.
Referee: Andrew Brace (IRFU)