After last weekend’s would-be box office shakeup fizzled, Hollywood is taking another swing at Avatar: Fire and Ash. Sony’s 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple failed to deliver a knockout, debuting with a muted $12.5 million and leaving James Cameron’s sequel comfortably atop the charts for a fifth straight frame. Now a new challenger enters the ring as Amazon MGM’s Mercy opens nationwide.
Starring Chris Pratt and Rebecca Ferguson, the sci-fi thriller is tracking in the low-to-mid teens — potentially enough to finally end Avatar’s reign. Directed by Timur Bekmambetov, Mercy centers on a detective forced to plead his case before an A.I. judge, leaning heavily on star power and premium formats to lure moviegoers during a traditionally slow January stretch. It also marks Amazon MGM’s first wide theatrical release of 2026, making this weekend an early test of the studio’s big-screen ambitions.
Still, Fire and Ash has proven remarkably durable. Even in its sixth weekend, the sequel remains a formidable force, already surpassing $370 million domestically and $1.3 billion worldwide. If Mercy underperforms, Cameron could once again defy expectations and hang onto the top spot — something the previous two Avatar films made look routine.
Elsewhere on the chart, The Bone Temple hopes strong reviews help limit its second-weekend drop, while genre fans will also have Return to Silent Hill as a fresh option. The Housemaid and Zootopia 2 could both creep ahead in the rankings as holdovers remain competitive.
Meanwhile, A24’s Marty Supreme continues its impressive run, recently crossing $100 million globally and riding a major awards-season boost with nine Oscar nominations — including Best Picture and Best Actor for Timothée Chalamet. Whether Mercy can finally dethrone Pandora — or simply join the long list of challengers that came up short — will be the central question facing theaters this weekend.
New releases
Mercy
Director: Timur Bekmambetov
Distributor: Amazon MGM Studios
In the near future, a detective stands on trial accused of murdering his wife. He has 90 minutes to prove his innocence to the advanced A.I. Judge he once championed, before it determines his fate. The sci-fi thriller has a running time of one hour, 40 minutes, and is rated PG-13. Mercy is certified “rotten” with a 22 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally unfavorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 37 percent.
Return to Silent Hill
Director: Christophe Gans
Distributor: Iconic Events
When a man receives a mysterious letter from his lost love, he is drawn to Silent Hill, a once familiar town now consumed by darkness. The horror sequel has a running time of one hour, 46 minutes, and is rated R. Return to Silent Hill is certified “rotten” with a 17 percent score per the aggregated critic reviews at Rotten Tomatoes; “generally unfavorable” reviews compiled by Metacritic resulted in an overall score of 32 percent.
Here are Gold Derby’s predicted box-office rankings for the top five over the Jan. 23-25 weekend:
1. Mercy — $12 million
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash — $8 million
3. Zootopia 2 — $6.5 million
4. The Housemaid — $6 million
5. 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple — $5 million