The southern Guangdong province has been the largest engine powering China’s economic rise for decades. But the region is now in danger of losing its status as the country’s top regional economy, as a rival to the east outpaces its growth.
Jiangsu, home to a wide range of multinationals and hi-tech enterprises, has long been Guangdong’s closest competitor: together, the two provinces account for over 20 per cent of China’s gross domestic product (GDP).
And the region has shown greater dynamism over the past few years as Guangdong’s growth engines have sputtered. Though Guangdong managed to retain first place in GDP terms last year, according to recently released provincial data, the gap narrowed significantly.
This story explores why Jiangsu is outperforming Guangdong, when it might officially claim the No 1 ranking, and how the race reflects wider shifts in the Chinese economy.
How close is Jiangsu to overtaking Guangdong?
Jiangsu’s GDP rose to 14.23 trillion yuan (US$2.05 trillion) in 2025, while Guangdong’s reached 14.58 trillion yuan, making it China’s largest provincial economy for the 37th consecutive year.