Track your investments for FREE with Simply Wall St, the portfolio command center trusted by over 7 million individual investors worldwide.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) has drawn fresh attention after a sharp move in its share price over the past 3 years, with total return sitting at a very large multiple of the starting level.
Over the past year, the stock’s total return is 151%, while year to date it is up 16%. More recently, the share price shows a month return of 1% and a past 3 months gain of 58%.
At a last close of US$96.92, the company screens with a value score of 1 and an intrinsic discount figure of 8%. These are metrics some investors use to compare current pricing with internal valuation models.
AST SpaceMobile reports revenue of US$18.531m and a net loss of US$303.831m, with annual revenue growth reported at 46% and net income growth at 50%. These figures indicate that the business is still in a capital-intensive investment phase.
The company’s core focus is building its BlueBird satellite constellation to support a space based cellular broadband network. Its SpaceMobile service is intended to reach users outside terrestrial coverage, including commercial and government customers.
See our latest analysis for AST SpaceMobile.
AST SpaceMobile’s 1 year total shareholder return above 250% and very large 3 year total shareholder return sit alongside a recent 90 day share price return of 58%. This points to strong momentum even after some short term pullbacks.
If this kind of move in AST SpaceMobile has caught your eye, it could be a moment to scan for other satellite and telecom related plays in AI infrastructure through our 34 AI infrastructure stocks.
With the share price now far above its level a year ago and metrics hinting at an intrinsic discount, the key question is whether AST SpaceMobile still trades at a discount or if the market is already pricing in future growth.
Compared with the most followed narrative fair value of $71.51, AST SpaceMobile’s last close at $96.92 sits well above that estimate, which raises questions about how bold the underlying assumptions need to be.
AST SpaceMobile is developing a global space based cellular broadband network that connects directly to everyday mobile phones for voice, text and data services.
Curious what justifies such an aggressive build out and valuation gap? The narrative leans on rapid service ramp, sharply higher margins and a future earnings profile that looks very different to today.
According to this widely followed narrative, the fair value of $71.51 is based on a detailed set of assumptions about how fast revenue and earnings could scale, what profit margins might look like once the satellite constellation is in place, and the valuation multiple the market might apply at that point. The analysis uses a 6.96% discount rate to bring those future earnings back to today’s dollars and then compares that figure with the current share price.
Result: Fair Value of $71.51 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, the story can change quickly if satellite deployment slips or partner carriers push competing offerings, which could leave those ambitious revenue assumptions looking stretched.
Find out about the key risks to this AST SpaceMobile narrative.
The consensus narrative flags AST SpaceMobile as 36% overvalued versus a fair value of $71.51, yet our DCF model puts fair value closer to $105.84, about 8.4% above the current $96.92 share price. When one approach says rich and another says discounted, which story do you find more convincing?
Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.
ASTS Discounted Cash Flow as at Feb 2026
Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out AST SpaceMobile for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 51 high quality undervalued stocks. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match – so you never miss a potential opportunity.
If the current fair value debates do not align with your own thinking, you can stress test the numbers yourself and build a tailored narrative in just a few minutes, then Do it your way.
A great starting point for your AST SpaceMobile research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
If AST SpaceMobile has sharpened your focus, do not stop here. Use the Simply Wall St Screener to uncover fresh ideas before others catch on.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ASTS.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com