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Micron Technology (MU) has drawn fresh attention after recent trading saw the share price close at $420.95, with returns of 5.30% over the past day and 2.59% over the past week.
See our latest analysis for Micron Technology.
Beyond the latest move, Micron’s recent strength stands out, with a 30 day share price return of 16.04% and a 1 year total shareholder return above 300%, pointing to strong momentum and a sharply improved market view of its prospects and risks.
If this kind of momentum in memory and AI related hardware has your attention, it could be a good time to scan our screener of 34 AI infrastructure stocks for potential next ideas.
With Micron shares at $420.95 after a very strong 1-year total return and the price now above the average analyst target, investors may wonder whether there is still upside potential or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.
According to BlackGoat, the most followed Micron narrative pegs fair value at $300.21, well below the recent $420.95 close. This frames a clear valuation gap.
The AI Supercycle: This is the most powerful catalyst. The demand for next-generation HBM is unprecedented. Micron has successfully passed NVIDIA’s quality verification for its HBM3E products, becoming a key supplier for the next-generation “Blackwell” AI accelerator. The company is now shipping high-volume HBM to four major customers across both GPU and ASIC platforms. With its entire 2025 production capacity already sold out, analysts project the HBM market will grow from roughly $30 billion in 2025 to a staggering $100 billion by 2030, representing a massive runway for growth.
Want to see what kind of revenue trajectory and margin profile could support that fair value, and how the future profit multiple ties it together? The full narrative lays out a detailed earnings roadmap, a specific profitability target and the valuation anchor that holds it all together.
Result: Fair Value of $300.21 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what’s behind the forecasts.
However, this hinges on AI memory demand staying firm. A classic oversupply downturn or sharper U.S. China tensions could quickly undercut those assumptions.
Find out about the key risks to this Micron Technology narrative.
That $300.21 fair value comes from BlackGoat’s narrative model. Micron’s current P/E of 39.8x is below both the US semiconductor average of 42.3x and its own fair ratio of 63.6x, and also below a peer average of 88.6x. Is the market still catching up, or has it already run ahead of fundamentals?
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
NasdaqGS:MU P/E Ratio as at Feb 2026
Given the mixed signals on valuation and sentiment, it could be worth checking the underlying numbers yourself and deciding quickly where you stand, including weighing up 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign.
If Micron has you thinking bigger, do not stop here, use the Simply Wall St screener to quickly spot other opportunities that could fit your game plan.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include MU.
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