On September 20th, a month after every other political party has already done so, Sinn Féin’s ard chomhairle, the party’s governing body, will finally make the big decision about its chosen approach to the presidential election.
The party’s decision-making process has become the longest slow bicycle race in recent political history.
Its continuation into the autumn has led to frustration among the three parties that already back the “united left” candidate, Catherine Connolly: Labour, the Social Democrats and People Before Profit.
With time moving on and key strategic decisions to be made, they want to know if Sinn Féin is with them, or will the party beat its own drum?
During a recent visit to west Belfast, Connolly criticised delays in naming candidates, without naming any particular party. She described the delays as “Lanigan’s Ball”, saying it was “disrespectful” to the Constitution.
Labour leader Ivana Bacik was uncharacteristically direct in her criticism of Sinn Féin this week, accusing it of “dithering” over its decision on Connolly.
[ What’s going on with Sinn Féin and nominating a presidential candidate?Opens in new window ]
The sense of impatience is not shared by Sinn Féin. “We can’t understand why everybody else seems to be panicking,” says a senior party TD. “We have a decision to make and we will make it in our own good time.”
The two previous presidential campaigns show Sinn Féin followed its own precedent. In 2018 Liadh Ní Riada was named on September 16th. In 2011, it was September 18th when Martin McGuinness was dramatically announced.
In addition, the party’s internal process is far more complicated this time. Another senior TD says it stems from the party getting its call completely wrong on the referendums last year – on family and care in the home.
“There was a lot of criticism from members about having no role in the decision,” says the TD.
Party leader Mary Lou McDonald decided there would be a full party-wide consultation this time, involving all of the party’s cumainn (party branches). It took some time and involved collating thousands of responses into a report that was discussed by its ruling ard chomhairle earlier this summer.
“There was no clear majority view. It was split between people who favoured a Sinn Féin candidate and those who strongly believed we should explore a joint candidate with other progressive parties of the left,” says the TD, who, like all Sinn Féin contributors to this article, is speaking on the basis of anonymity.
And that question has yet to be settled.
“The parliamentary party and the leadership is broadly in a similar position to the wider activists, which is weighing up the two options very carefully,” says the TD.
“There are challenges and opportunities in both courses of action. It’s not like we’ve made a decision and we’re keeping it secret. I think people are still mulling it over.”
The sequencing has been laid out. The party will begin an “away day” parliamentary party meeting on Monday, which will be dominated by the issue.
The prevailing view of the meeting will form the basis of further deliberations by the party’s six-person national officer board, composed of McDonald, vice-president Michelle O’Neill and four senior officials. The board will make a recommendation to the ard chomhairle at the September 20th meeting.
Conversations with more than a dozen parliamentarians gave no clear indication of a possible candidate. In one sense it was like an episode of The Traitors: plenty of names, many suspicions but a complete lack of evidence on which to ground them.
There are a number of TDs who want the party to back Connolly, but then there are others who are adamant that it should be a Sinn Féin candidate.
Michelle O’Neill. Photograph: David Young/PA Wire
Both McDonald and O’Neill’s names have been mentioned, and neither have dismissed themselves entirely. Some parliamentarians have told The Irish Times that McDonald has said she has no interest in the role.
But then in recent interviews, she has not closed it off.
“I’m in public life for the long haul and I’m committed to representing people, to doing my level best always,” she said in an ambiguous response to a question about standing for election in an interview with the Journal last week.
“Do you really want to stand your party leader, and the person you want to become taoiseach, as a presidential candidate?” says one TD who believes she will not stand.
The name of former party leader Gerry Adams is also mentioned by some. He is now 76. Would he come out of retirement?
He is revered by republicans but would face the same headwinds and confrontations over the IRA’s legacy from the Troubles that McGuinness faced in 2011.
Rose Conway-Walsh at Leinster House. Photograph: Sam Boal/Collins Photo
One name that has cropped up repeatedly in recent weeks has been Mayo TD Rose Conway-Walsh. It is understood that if asked, she would stand but she has not canvassed for it. In recent interviews she has sounded not unlike an Áras candidate, with her contributions focusing on a united Ireland. Her problem would be recognition; unlike McDonald, she is not a household name.
The party does want to build up a coalition of the left in the Oireachtas and this would present an opportunity to bolster it by backing Connolly.
“There’s a lot of respect for Catherine inside the party, particularly on social justice, neutrality, and on housing,” says a senior figure. “We also like the way she conducts herself in a calm, measured and thoughtful way.”
If Connolly is the candidate, will the breadth of the Sinn Féin project be represented?
However, almost all TDs point to the election as an opportunity to put the issue of a united Ireland front and centre. With Connolly as candidate, that would not be the focus, some say.
Aware of that reservation, she has spoken publicly – and deliberately – of her support for a united Ireland during August, most recently in her west Belfast visit that was seen as her effort to assuage concerns she might not be sufficiently republican.
“We encouraged her to speak out. I, for one, was convinced by what she said,” says one TD who supports her.
There’s also the fact that Sinn Féin is the largest Opposition party, and has distinct positions.
“If Connolly is the candidate, will the breadth of the Sinn Féin project be represented?” asks one TD rhetorically.
Catherine Connolly outside Leinster House. Photograph: Bryan O’Brien
Muiris MacCarthaigh, professor of politics and public policy at Queen’s University Belfast, points to important changes in the nature of recent presidential elections, some of which might feed into Sinn Féin’s thinking.
“The Constitution favoured a party-focused position for elected office, including that of the president. But there has been a definite shift in the last few elections towards a more candidate-focused contest,” he says.
“It does seem to be more about the candidate and the individual. You can see that with Sean Gallagher, who was an outsider, who nearly got through in 2011.
“Even the incumbents tend to be defined less by their party once they are in office. There is also more of a social focus rather than an economic one [in office], which might explain the tendency towards centre-left incumbents in more recent times.”
MacCarthaigh says the presidency tends to evoke conversations about what kind of society we want rather than what kind of economic model we want to follow, even though Michael D Higgins managed to integrate both.
“Fine Gael would be traditionally seen as the party of the economy. But it has never held the presidency,” he adds by way of example.
It can be taken that its choice of candidate will therefore be crucial for Sinn Féin, as will that person’s ability to foreground a united Ireland as an issue.
“My sense is that we are leaning towards running our own person and doing a deal with Connolly for transfers,” says a Sinn Féin TD who wants the party to support the Galway West candidate but senses the ground is shifting.
But who will the party’s nominee be? There may be another fortnight of waiting before the final piece of the jigsaw is placed.