fell 0.2% in December as expectations, new orders, and manufacturing hours cooled. Trade is another weak spot. The US goods deficit widened to $70.31 billion in December as imports rose and exports fell. Put together, it helps explain why Atlanta Fed GDPNow trimmed its Q4 growth estimate to 3.0% from 3.6% – still solid, just less punchy than before.
Why should I care?
For markets: Good news is getting more selective.
Low layoffs usually support consumer-facing sectors because paychecks keep flowing. But weaker leading signals and a wider trade gap can keep investors debating whether growth is merely cooling or about to downshift faster – which often reshuffles leadership between cyclical areas and defensive ones.
Zooming out: Energy can still steer inflation.
Inventory moves matter because energy prices feed into inflation, and inflation shapes how long interest rates stay restrictive. Natural gas stocks fell to 2.070 trillion cubic feet and sit below the five-year average, while crude inventories dropped sharply in the latest week. If supplies stay tight, energy could keep overall price pressures stickier than other data suggests.