Perhaps more than any other Six Nations team, Ireland appear to be striving to rediscover their identity or even to establish a new one. This can be an extremely difficult task, especially after recent glories have built up a certain level of expectation.
And still, Ireland will meet England on a run of five wins in their past six games in this fixture. Their only defeat in that sequence came in a tight and exciting contest courtesy of Marcus Smith’s drop-goal. Before that, England held the upper hand.
England were outclassed in Dublin last year but Ireland have not been the force of old in this year’s Six Nations
SPORTSFILE
In 2019 they staged a tactical masterclass to ransack Dublin and then thrashed Ireland in a World Cup warm-up game that obliterated Irish confidence on the cusp of that tournament. England bullied their opponents across two games in 2020, either side of lockdown. Ireland were bedding in more intricate attacking systems, taking a step backwards that would eventually lead to them climbing to new heights. Sam Underhill and co punished tentativeness and indecision with brutality.
It has been a boom-or-bust rivalry and the next instalment is fascinating. Farrell has leant into gnarly knowhow. Eleven of his 23 are over 30, compared with six of England’s match-day squad and Ireland’s average age (29.4) is higher than that of England (27.1). The cap profile, however, is similar. England average a touch over 40 a man, with Ireland on 38.6.
Steve Borthwick also has the three most experienced individuals in George Ford, Jamie George (both 107 caps) and Maro Itoje (99). All this suggests that England are ahead with future planning, but Saturday is a seismic game that carries weighty significance in itself.
Emotional stimuli for Ireland are plentiful. Farrell can urge Josh van der Flier, overlooked for Test action on the British & Irish Lions tour, to prove him wrong by bettering Tom Curry. The healthy Leinster contingent will be itching to get to grips with Henry Pollock after what happened in an absorbing Champions Cup semi-final nine months ago. Tadhg Furlong, comprehensively outmanoeuvred by Italy’s scrum, will be challenged to prove his enduring value, as will Jamison Gibson-Park and James Lowe among others.
Baloucoune’s pace, which was on display during his fine performance against Italy last weekend, has added another dimension to Ireland’s game
BRENDAN MORAN/SPORTSFILE
Perhaps even more intriguing, though, is Ireland’s tactical approach.
In hindsight, their performance against France was reminiscent of England’s at Murrayfield. Both games underlined the importance of the aerial battle. When contestable kicks are not coming off, a side can look horribly limited. There was sense in peppering Louis Bielle-Biarrey and Thomas Ramos with high balls as rain teemed down, but the strategy proved futile. When Ireland did attempt to cycle through phases, they were foiled by clattering tackles. Anthony Jelonch was particularly vicious.
After two rounds, Ireland have accumulated the most attacking rucks inside their own half (76). Only Wales, with 73, are anywhere close. The others are clustered between 53 (Italy) and 51 (France). This suggests a firm commitment to keeping the ball, which caused angst in the opening 90 seconds last weekend when Leonardo Marin swam past decoy runners and caught Sam Prendergast way behind the gainline on the edge of the hosts’ 22.
Injuries and the suspension of Bundee Aki have compromised the fluency of these familiar patterns. Yet the offloading Stuart McCloskey and Robert Baloucoune’s speed have provided additional dimensions.
Ireland often find themselves in a 3-2 shape, with one bank of three forwards being fed by the scrum half and another bank of two in midfield.
Here, Thomas Clarkson lifts a pull-back to Prendergast, who throws a flat pass to James Ryan.
As part of the extended attack that heralded Jack Crowley’s introduction, and eventually led to Baloucoune’s finish, Ireland set up a four-man pod.
Caelan Doris takes Crowley’s whipped pass and spins to find McCloskey, opening up the field.
From another flat set-up a year ago, a short tip-pass from Dan Sheehan sent Jack Conan carving through the England line.
There are various options and different ways to manipulate a defence within these structures.
Ireland have accumulated 66 kicks from hand over the first two matches of this campaign, only two fewer than England. In the game two years ago, Lowe scored his first try from Gibson-Park’s recovered box-kick. Despite a forecast of light rain, Ireland are bound to search for width and will target Alex Mitchell, specifically.
According to Stats Perform, the England scrum half averages almost three missed tackles per match since the last World Cup. Across 1,151 minutes, he has slipped off 42 of 98 attempts. A completion rate of 57.1 per cent is the lowest of any England player to attempt 50 tackles. Nobody else is below 70 per cent.
Tackle statistics require context and Mitchell’s misses tend to be more damaging because he is asked to press up towards the edge of England’s defensive line. A perfect example cropped up at the Aviva Stadium a year ago. The visiting team were clinging on to a 7-0 lead, despite losing Marcus Smith to the sin-bin. Ireland worked the ball to Lowe, who powered through Mitchell and fed Gibson-Park for a try that enlivened their team.
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Mitchell missed six tackles that day and slipped off two more in similar scenarios on Saturday. Kyle Steyn beat him to spark the Scotland attack that brought about Henry Arundell’s yellow card.
The second was part of the catastrophic kick-chase that led to Ben White scoring Scotland’s third try.
Borthwick has picked a swarming back row and Ollie Lawrence’s jackalling is now a big weapon. Key battles await at the scrum, the lineout and in the air. England will be eager to impose themselves with ball in hand as well, having failed to convert territory at Murrayfield. However, a classic tussle between Ireland’s phase attack — their calling card — and a spoiling defence lies ahead.
England v Ireland
Guinness Six Nations
Saturday, 2.10pm
TV ITV1