Six Nations: England v Ireland, Twickenham, Saturday, 2.10pm,Live on RTÉ2 and ITV. Live blog on irishtimes.com/sport
It’s one of the great pilgrimages in Irish sport, the Green Army’s invasion of a little corner of southwest London, where there’s no better place to win and no worse place to lose. Judged on the influx from Dublin to Heathrow in the 24 hours beforehand, they have again travelled in vast numbers to swell the ex-pats present, if seemingly more in hope than the expectation of recent times.
This is in part because Ireland have had an inevitable decline since the high of 2023, all the more so in the last 12 months, with four defeats in their last eight games against Tier One nations.
Granted, Ireland have won four of the last five meetings with England and as Scotland showed last week, that counts for something. Similarly, this Ireland will not be in awe of this England. Furthermore, that sole defeat in the last five clashes was by a point and achieved with the last kick of the game here two years ago.
So it is that Andy Farrell has regrouped four of his big game hunters in the pack with Tadhg Furlong, Tadhg Beirne (a big game player if ever there was one), Josh van der Flier and Caelan Doris, perhaps with a pre-hatched plan to have them primed for this game, as well as inserting Jack Crowley.
If it comes off, it will be a masterstroke. If it doesn’t, then Ireland’s title hopes will be gone, in advance of games at home to Wales and Scotland.
Hence, this feels like something of a landmark game and this latest Anglo-Irish clash is given added intrigue by it coming in the aftermath of the first Lions tour in history when the Irish players and coaches outnumbered their English counterparts.
How might Ireland pull off a Twickenham upset?
Even when gauged on respected podcasts, to some English rugby people, that is seemingly incomprehensible and against the natural order of things.
In any case, there will be renewals of rivalries and friendships from the Oz odyssey aplenty. Ireland’s match day squad features 14 summer tourists and ditto 11 of England’s 23.
Ireland’s Jack Crowley limbers up during the captain’s run on Friday. Photograph: Getty Images
Nine of Ireland’s squad featured in the Test series, including five who started all three Tests, while eight of England’s squad played in the series, among them three ever-presents. All of which ought also neutralise the post-Lions hangover, albeit many of Ireland’s Lions play for Leinster, which adds to the unremitting load of big games in recent years.
Lions skipper Maro Itoje becomes just the 9th English player to reach 100 caps for his country. That will also stoke England’s fire and coming after their 12-game winning run ended in Murrayfield, Ireland might well feel the full wrath of the empire as a consequence. In response, Steve Borthwick has picked a more balanced backrow and three-quarter line.
There are, it seems, two factors which could propel England to a commanding win, namely the scrum battle and Henry Pollock, with his acceleration, game-breaking and poaching ability, who makes his first start after seven caps off the bench.
Irish sides have, of late, developed an unhealthy reputation as poor scrummagers, not just in the eyes of opposing teams and supporters but perhaps more importantly, referees.
England have an aggressive frontrow and they will target the Irish scrum, as they did the Scottish scrum last week. After just two scrums, Luke Cowan-Dickie was in the ear of referee Nika Amashukeli seeking sanction against Zander Fagerson.
Yellow cards for being out-scrummed are something of an absurdity but disappointingly, Amashukeli, normally a good referee, duly warned Fagerson. The English players will be in Andrea Piardi’s ear and while the Italian is a good referee, he is not empathetic to a scrum he sees going backwards, no matter why.
There will be a palpable mix of expectation and trepidation for the very first put-in. And from that moment onwards, the scrum will be a huge, pivotal battle on which the match could hinge.
The Irish scrum has suffered here in the past, ie, when Mike Ross was forced off in 2012 and Ireland conceded a penalty try, six scrum penalties and three scrums against the head. All but three of England’s points in that humbling 30-9 defeat emanated from the scrum and even when Ireland won here in 2022, they conceded six scrum penalties.
England debutant Henry Pollock is set for his first cap against Ireland. Photograph: Getty Images
After last week’s loss, England would take a scrappy, scrum-oriented win, but Pollock is the new great white hope of English rugby. And if he ignites home team and crowd alike early on, it could be a long afternoon of listening to Swing Low.
In reuniting the bulk of the pack which faced down the All Blacks in 2022 and the Boks at the 2023 World Cup, Farrell evidently expects a big response from the wounded Furlong and co.
“If you are just trying to get parity in the upfront battle, then you’re not ambitious enough yourself,” said Farrell. “We want to make sure that our set-piece and the way that we go forward in general, as far as the gainline is concerned, on both sides of the ball, is pretty important against an English side which is very good at that.
“The English thrive on the high ball situation and use the lack of discipline from the opposition to kick you into the 22 and put you under pressure. So we need to make sure that our discipline and our collective plan, as far as the overall game, as far as the kicking game is concerned, is pretty important.”
Intriguingly, Scotland had evidently planned for England’s prescriptive, kicking-orientated game by often opting to run the ball back rather than engage in aerial ping-pong.
“Yeah, I know, [but] you look at the England selection and they’ve picked a backrow to go after the ball there,” said Farrell, which suggested that running the ball back has a heightened risk. “It’s swings and roundabouts, isn’t it?”
But if Ireland are to make green hearts swell, aside from scrummaging strongly and competing as well as last week in the air, they’re going to have to fire shots.
Those multiphase tries last week were a reminder that Ireland are still capable of outsmarting heavyweights. But home advantage is huge in the Six Nations and the suspicion lurks that England are that bit more desperate.
ENGLAND: Freddie Steward (Leicester); Tommy Freeman (Northampton), Ollie Lawrence (Bath), Fraser Dingwall (Northampton), Henry Arundell (Bath); George Ford (Sale), Alex Mitchell (Northampton); Ellis Genge (Bristol), Luke Cowan-Dickie (Sale), Joe Heyes (Leicester); Maro Itoje (Saracens, capt), Ollie Chessum (Leicester); Tom Curry (Sale), Ben Earl (Saracens), Henry Pollock (Northampton).
Replacements: Jamie George (Saracens), Bevan Rodd (Sale), Trevor Davison (Northampton), Alex Coles (Northampton), Guy Pepper (Bath), Sam Underhill (Bath), Jack van Poortvliet (Leicester), Marcus Smith (Harlequins).
IRELAND: Jamie Osborne (Leinster); Robert Baloucoune (Ulster), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Stuart McCloskey (Ulster), James Lowe (Leinster); Jack Crowley (Munster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Jeremy Loughman (Munster), Dan Sheehan (Leinster), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster); Joe McCarthy (Leinster), James Ryan (Leinster); Tadhg Beirne (Munster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Caelan Doris (Leinster, capt).
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher (Leinster), Tom O’Toole (Ulster), Finlay Bealham (Connacht), Nick Timoney (Ulster), Jack Conan (Leinster), Craig Casey (Munster), Ciarán Frawley (Leinster), Tommy O’Brien (Leinster).
Referee: Andrea Piardi (FIR).
Assistant Referees: Pierre Brousset (FFR), Gianluca Gnecchi (FIR).
TMO: Matteo Liperini (FIR).
FPRO: Mike Adamson (SRU).
Overall head-to-head: Played 143, England 81 wins, Ireland 54 wins, 8 draws.
Last five meetings – 2025: Ireland 27 England 22; 2024: England 23 Ireland 22; 2023: Ireland 29 England 10; 2023: Ireland 29 England 16; 2022: England 15 Ireland 32-15.
Betting: 1-5 England, 25-1 draw, 7-2 Ireland. Handicap odds (Ireland +10 pts) Evens England, 16-1 draw, Evens Ireland.
Forecast: England by 5-10.