Frustrated politicians and diplomats like to point out Europe is too often pigeonholed as a “payer and not a player” in the Middle East, a reference to the persistent failure to translate its significant aid contributions in the region into influence.
Internal divisions hamstrung the European Union’s efforts to exert any serious geopolitical pull during Israel’s two-year bombardment of Gaza.
The fact the EU is the largest international donor to Palestine didn’t seem to count for much when the Trump administration was drafting a peace plan for Gaza that sidelined Europe.
The EU wants to avoid being seen as a powerless bystander in the escalating conflict in Iran.
The immediate concern of European governments is the large numbers of their own nationals and citizens living in the region.
Those in Iran and Israel would have spent recent weeks bracing themselves for a resumption of the 12-day war that began and ended last June.
Iran’s retaliatory strikes launched towards Dubai and other Gulf states, however, will have shaken the sense of security European residents enjoyed in those life-of-luxury destinations, which were relatively untouched by the nearby conflicts of the last two and a half years.
A plume of smoke rises from the port of Jebel Ali following a reported Iranian strike in Dubai on March 1, 2026. Photograph: Fadel Senna/ AFP via Getty Images
Evacuating large numbers of the expat populations from Dubai and other cities would be a major diplomatic and logistical operation, should governments begin airlifting citizens out of the region. That could become necessary if there is another serious escalation in the conflict and lasting disruption to civilian flights.
The war is on the doorstep of one EU state, Cyprus. An Iranian drone hit a British military airbase on the Mediterranean island at the weekend, causing a small amount of damage, but no injuries. Two further unmanned drones were intercepted on Monday.
The apparent target, Akrotiri, is one of two RAF bases on the island, which are sovereign British overseas territory under the terms of a 1960 agreement that saw the former British colony granted independence.
Senior figures in the Cyprus government have spent months privately warning that the British bases could become a target, in a spiralling military conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran.
The concern has always been that the bases would be viewed as legitimate targets by forces seeking to strike back at western powers.
The government of Cyprus would rather not host the two British bases, but the UK government has shown no interest in giving up the small tracts of strategically important territory close to the Middle East.
Greek defence minister Nikos Dendias said Athens was sending two frigates and a pair of F-16 fighter jets to Cyprus, to aid its defences.
The drone attacks, particularly should they intensify, will spur debate in Brussels about co-ordinating further help at EU-level.
It would be open to Cyprus to trigger the mutual defence clause in the EU treaties. That commits other EU states to provide “aid and assistance by all the means in their power”, to a member under attack.
It has been triggered just once before, by France in the immediate aftermath of the 2015 Paris terror attacks.
“For the moment, no such discussion has taken place on the activation of the mutual defence clause, we will have to see if that is the case in the coming days”, a European Commission spokeswoman said on Monday.
The clause does not bind other EU states to military action. It contains an asterisk that effectively recognises the neutrality of Ireland, Austria and Malta.
A Cypriot source said the government in Nicosia would continue to assess the situation as it evolved.
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