Amazon MGM’s new sci-fi movie venture is reportedly a wildly expensive one.
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller’s Project Hail Mary, based on Andy Weir’s (the author of The Martian) 2021 novel of the same name, stars Ryan Gosling as a lone astronaut with no memory from before the mission, who must prevent the sun from dying in order to save Earth. The movie’s cast also includes Sandra Hüller, Lionel Boyce, Ken Leung, and Milana Vayntrub.
A new report from Puck reveals exactly how big this venture is, as Matthew Belloni refers to Project Hail Mary as a “nearly $200 million-budgeted” movie, also calling it “the closest thing to a franchise-free, one-and-done global blockbuster that Hollywood has attempted since Tenet in 2020.” Belloni clarifies that the movie’s gross budget was $248 million, “according to an internal Amazon document,” before tax credits brought it down.
Based on these numbers and the general rule of thumb that a movie needs to make 2.5x its budget to account for marketing costs, Project Hail Mary probably needs to make $500 million to $600 million to break even. This is not necessarily impossible, looking at the numbers for the closest comparable project: 2015’s The Martian, which grossed $630 million worldwide.
Starring Matt Damon as an astronaut accidentally left behind on Mars who must survive until someone comes to retrieve him, The Martian was a runaway success, which went on to be nominated for seven Oscars. However, with an estimated budget of $108 million, grossing more than $600 million means it was incredibly profitable, while it would be only modestly commercially successful for Project Hail Mary.
Can Project Hail Mary actually reach this benchmark? Belloni points out that F1, last year’s original action blockbuster, grossed over $600 million, but was based around an iconic brand. The Martian, very importantly, came out before the COVID-19 pandemic; nowadays, even the best original movies often don’t perform as well as sequels or adaptations of beloved IPs.
Even Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, a continuation of a beloved sci-fi thriller franchise, completely flopped at the box office in 2024 because of an inflated budget. Project Hail Mary is currently projected to have a domestic opening of $50 million, and Belloni predicts that it could match The Housemaid’s gross of $385 million — which would be a huge loss for Amazon MGM.
Project Hail Mary has some of the elements to become a major blockbuster, including a well-known cast and an adventurous premise that promises spectacle, as well as a PG-13 rating that makes it accessible to a broader audience. It will need good word-of-mouth to get off the ground, and Guillermo del Toro at least gave Project Hail Mary a glowing review. However, it is apparent that this will be an uphill battle for the new sci-fi adventure.
Project Hail Mary releases in theaters on March 20, 2026.
Release Date
March 20, 2026
Runtime
156 Minutes
Director
Christopher Miller, Phil Lord
Sandra Hüller
Eva Stratt
Milana Vayntrub
Olesya Ilyukhina
