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Published by Global Banking & Finance Review®
Posted on March 6, 2026
2 min read
Last updated: March 7, 2026
Barclays Warns Brent Crude Could Test $120 Amid Middle East Conflict
Barclays’ Analysis of Oil Market Risks and Price Projections
Potential Price Surge if Conflict Persists
March 6 (Reuters) – Barclays said on Friday that Brent crude could potentially test $120 a barrel if the Middle East conflict persists for another couple of weeks.
Comparisons to Previous Oil Market Crises
“These numbers might seem too high, especially given widespread pessimism about the oil market outlook heading into this year, but we reiterate that fundamentals are stronger and risks are bigger than the Russia​-​Ukraine conflict, when we saw these levels materialize,” Barclays added.
Impact of Strait of Hormuz Disruption
Supply Constraints and Shipping Disruptions
Oil prices have jumped sharply as the widening U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, constraining Middle East supplies.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of global oil and oil and liquefied natural gas, has been disrupted after Iran threatened to fire on passing vessels.
Current Oil Price Levels
Brent crude futures were trading around $93.60 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate were at $91.62 as of 1857 GMT.
Market Reactions and Ongoing Risks
Rising Oil Volumes Stranded
Barclays said oil volumes stranded on tankers in the Middle East Gulf have risen by about 85 million barrels since the conflict began, adding that risks to oil prices remain skewed to the upside.
Geopolitical Escalation
U.S. President Donald Trump demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” on Friday, a dramatic escalation of his demands a week into the war he launched alongside Israel, which could make it more difficult to negotiate a swift end to hostilities.
Production Shut-ins and Further Price Scenarios
Regional Production Impacts
“Production shut-ins in Iraq and Kuwait are already happening and might spread to UAE and even Saudi Arabia over time,” Barclays said.
Extreme Price Scenario
Brent Crude Could Hit $150
Barclays said the far‑end 10% scenario now implies Brent could hit $150 a barrel before the end of the month.
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru; Editing by Mark Porter and Chizu Nomiyama)