Everyone together now – one, two three: ‘Thank you Scotland.’
In denying France the bonus-point win they needed to claim the Six Nations title with a round remaining, Scotland have forced the championship to a final-round showdown, while also ending Les Bleus’ Grand Slam push.
Scotland’s 50-40 victory at Murrayfield on Saturday afternoon means they now sit top of the table alongside France, both on 16 points, with Ireland third on 14.
Scotland’s magnificent fourth-round win was in contrast to Ireland’s laboured 27-17 win over Wales on Friday night, adding extra pep to Gregor Townsend’s step as his side come to Dublin next weekend on Super Saturday.
Here’s how things need to play out in the final round to see Ireland claim the 2026 title.
[ Six Nations tableOpens in new window ]
What are the Round 5 fixtures?
Ireland v Scotland, Aviva Stadium, Saturday, 2.10pm
Wales v Italy, Principality Stadium, Saturday, 4.40pm
France v England, Stade de France, Saturday, 8.10pm
What teams are still in the running for the championship?
It’s a three-horse race between Ireland, France and Scotland.
England and Italy, both on five points ahead of their fourth-round clash in Rome on Saturday evening, and Wales, with just one point from four games, are already out of the running regardless of how the rest of their campaigns pan out.
What’s the breakdown of the top-three standings heading into the final round?
France – 16 points (3 wins, 1 loss; 4 bonus points; Points diff +79)
Scotland – 16 points (3 wins, 1 loss; 4 bonus points; Points diff +21)
Ireland – 14 points (3 wins, 1 loss; 2 bonus points; Points diff +16)
Scotland captain Sione Tuipulotu lifts the Auld Alliance Trophy after the win over France at Murrayfield. Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA Wire How will the tournament be decided?
With thing so close at the top, we’ll get some housekeeping out of the way first.
The title goes to the team with the most match points, but where two teams finish level it then goes to scoring difference (total points scored less total points conceded) and then tries scored.
France’s scoring difference heading into next weekend is plus 79 with 24 tries scored across the four rounds to date. Scotland have a scoring difference of plus 21 with 17 tries scored, and Ireland’s scoring difference is plus 16 with 14 tries scored.
What are the permutations?
Ireland and Scotland’s Triple Crown decider is up first on Saturday, meaning France will know exactly what is required of them before taking to the pitch for Le Crunch, giving them the upper hand.
France’s healthier scoring difference will also afford them a bit of breathing room as, in a case where they claim the same amount of points as Scotland from Round 5 (such as both taking bonus-point wins), unless the Scots manage to overturn their scoring-difference deficit to France (currently 58), the latter will earn the title.
But how can Ireland elbow in on the action, you ask? Well, first off, they need to beat Scotland, nothing else will do. That would take the Scots out of title-contention and leave France in need of at least a draw against England.
If Ireland beat Scotland without a bonus point it would put Andy Farrell’s side on 18 points. Given France’s much better scoring differential, Ireland would only win the title if Les Bleus then lost to England. A draw in Paris would be of little good to us.
A bonus-point win over Scotland would give Ireland slightly more hope for the title, putting them on 19 points and forcing France to go for at least a draw with a try-scoring bonus point in order to return the championship trophy to Paris for another year.
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