Ireland team announcement at 2pm
Key reads:
Join The Irish Times Rugby WhatsApp channel to stay up to date with all the latest Six Nations news, and get The Irish Times rugby coverage sent direct to your inbox by signing up to Gerry Thornley’s Counter Ruck newsletter.
Option 2 – Ireland win without a bonus point: If Ireland win without a bonus point, putting them on 18 points, Scotland would still be in contention if they lose by less than seven points (earning the losing bonus point) and if they score more than four tries (for the try-scoring bonus point). In that case, who comes out on top between Ireland and Scotland would go down to scoring differential, the Scots currently +5 ahead of Ireland.
For the sake of clarity, let’s take Scotland out of the equation. So Ireland get a win in Dublin, but no bonus point, what next? The most straightforward way by which Ireland would win the Six Nations is if France lose to England with no bonus point, or they lose to England and earn just one bonus point.
Should France lose and pick up a second bonus point, or draw with no bonus point, then the championship would go down to scoring difference again. As we’ve been over, France’s scoring differential is much better than Ireland’s (+79 versus +16) so this scenario would likely not play out well for us.
TLDR: If Scotland lose or draw to Ireland, and France beat England (bonus point or not), France will retain the Six Nations title.
Focusing on Ireland, it’s quite simple – they need to beat Scotland if they’re to really be in with a chance of snatching the title.
If Ireland win in Dublin, Scotland would likely be out of the running (needing a try-scoring and losing bonus point to stay in contention in the case of a defeat), leaving it down to England to do us a solid against France.
Let’s break down Ireland’s potential title-winning options…
Jack Crowley looks on during a scrum during last year’s Six Nations fixture between Ireland and Scotland. Photograph: Dan Sheridan/Inpho
Option 1 – Ireland win with a bonus point: Ireland move to 19 points and Scotland are out of the running. To win the title, Ireland then need France to lose to England (regardless of bonus points) or draw without a try-scoring bonus point.
Ireland could also win the championship if France draw against England with a try-scoring bonus point, but they would need to get ahead of Les Bleus on scoring difference. But given Ireland currently trail France by 63 points in terms of scoring difference, that’s a rather unlikely option.
To be continued… (Sorry, we’re nearly there, kind of.)
Now that the Scotland team is out of the way and we’ve a bit of time until the Ireland team is announced at 2pm, how about we wrap our heads around the permutations?
For the week that’s in it, the Six Nations is now a three-horse race as Ireland, Scotland and France all remain in contention for the championship.
Aside: Nathan Johns will shortly be kicking off a live blog to follow today’s Cheltenham action if you’re also interested in literal horse races.
France’s Louis Bielle-Biarrey celebrates as he runs in to score a try against Ireland in round one. Photograph: Inpho
But sticking with rugby, France hold the strongest position ahead of the final round, sitting top of the table on scoring difference while also having the benefit of playing in the last of Saturday’s games, meaning they’ll know exactly what is required of them to win the title well ahead of kick-off in Paris.
Here’s the breakdown of the top of the table:
France – 16 pts, +79 scoring difference
Scotland – 16 pts, +21 scoring difference
Ireland – 14 pts, +16 scoring difference
To be continued… (That makes it sound very mysterious when really I’m trying to avoid an information-overload.)
Scotland have gone for a new-look secondrow in the form of Max Williamson and Grant Gilchrist.
Gregor Townsend has made three changes for Saturday’s game, with Zander Fagerson restored to the starting XV replace D’Arcy Rae in the frontrow.
Scotland’s Zander Fagerson is challenged by Ireland’s Iain Henderson and Dan Sheehan during a pool game at the 2023 World Cup. Photograph: Julian Finney/World Rugby via Getty Images
The back line is unchanged from their win over France last time out, Ben White and Finn Russell retained at half back, captain Sione Tuipulotu continuing his centre partnership with Huw Jones, while Blair Kinghorn minds fullback.
Scotland have named their team for Saturday’s clash in Dublin. Here’s how they line out:
SCOTLAND: Blair Kinghorn; Darcy Graham, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu (capt), Kyle Steyn; Finn Russell (vice-capt), Ben White; Pierre Schoeman, George Turner, Zander Fagerson; Max Williamson, Grant Gilchrist; Matt Fagerson, Rory Darge (vice-capt), Jack Dempsey.
Replacements: Ewan Ashman, Rory Sutherland, D’Arcy Rae, Alex Craig, Magnus Bradbury, George Horne, Kyle Rowe, Tom Jordan.
The last round of games will all be played off on Saturday, ‘Super Saturday’ if you’re so inclined.
Ireland and Scotland play in the opener at the Aviva Stadium where there’ll be a 2.10pm kick-off. Then it’s over to Cardiff where Wales host Italy from 4.40pm before France and England bring the tournament to a close at the Stade de France (kick-off 8.10pm Irish time).
With Ireland, Scotland and France still in the running, the fall of Saturday’s games mean we’ll be waiting on the final whistle in Paris to learn who takes the 2026 title.
France lead the championship heading into the final weekend. Photograph: Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images
In the latest episode of The Counter Ruck, Nathan Johns and Gordon D’Arcy discuss the question both Ireland and Scotland alike will be wondering heading into Saturday’s game at the Aviva – do the Scots finally have the beating of Ireland?
“Might this finally be the weekend where Scotland, fresh off their stunning win over France, get over their Ireland hoodoo?”
Listen to what the lads had to say on that below or wherever you get your podcasts.
Are Scotland primed to finally beat Ireland?
Gerry Thornley has, of course, lodged his predictions for out consideration.
“Andy Farrell is expected to largely revert to the team which pitched up in Twickenham for Ireland’s record-breaking 42-21 win in round three when the side to face Scotland in Saturday’s eagerly awaited Triple Crown shoot-out is announced on Thursday,” Gerry writes.
With James Lowe and Jeremy Loughman ruled out through injury, GT thinks Tommy O’Brien is set for a starting role ahead of Jacob Stockdale while Tom O’Toole is expected to continue at loosehead.
Ireland’s Tommy O’Brien celebrates scoring a try against England. Photograph: Inpho
Here’s Gerry’s predicted starters and replacements to face Scotland:
IRELAND (possible): Jamie Osborne; Rob Baloucoune, Garry Ringrose, Stuart McCloskey, Tommy O’Brien; Jack Crowley, Jamison Gibson-Park; Tom O’Toole, Dan Sheehan, Tadhgh Furlong; Joe McCarthy, James Ryan; Tadhgh Beirne, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (capt).
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Mike Milne, Thomas Clarkson, Jack Conan, Nick Timoney, Craig Casey/Nathan Doak, Ciarán Frawley, Bundee Aki.
[ Tommy O’Brien in line for recall ahead of Jacob StockdaleOpens in new window ]
Good morning all.
We’ve made it! The final weekend of the 2026 Six Nations is nearly here – Andy Farrell has one last matchday side to announce as Ireland bring their campaign to a close in Dublin against Scotland on Saturday.
The Ireland team will be named at 2pm, while Scotland’s is due to be announced around 11am.
Ireland’s Jack Crowley and assistant coach Paul O’Connell during a training session on Tuesday. Photograph: Ben Brady/Inpho
In the meantime, we’ll be taking you through everything you need to know before Super Saturday. I’ll be chatting you through the title permutations, previewing this weekend’s fixtures and sharing the latest news, analysis and opinion from our team of rugby writers and contributors.
First things first, here’s how the Six Nations table is looking with one round remaining: