One of AI’s biggest backers claims the end of compulsory work is nearer than you think. When labor goes to zero, do prices follow, or just power?

Vinod Khosla, billionaire investor and early OpenAI backer, sketches a near future where AI absorbs about 80% of jobs by 2040 to 2045, from sales and medicine to accounting and writing. With labor costs plunging, he sees cheaper goods and services and work becoming a choice rather than a necessity, a view Elon Musk has echoed in his own way. Critics counter that the math is fuzzier than the vision, asking whether companies would pass savings to consumers and how a universal income funded by tech giants would actually work. And for now, a recent study suggests AI’s impact on employment and productivity remains modest, keeping Khosla’s timeline squarely in debate.

A future without work?

Vinod Khosla, the billionaire behind Khosla Ventures and an early OpenAI backer, has a startling forecast: children born in 2026 might never need to work. His claim, highlighted by journalist Audrey Oeillet on JVTECH (jeuxvideo.com’s tech vertical), rests on the rise of AI. He says automation will rewrite labor itself. The idea sounds audacious, yet it resonates with today’s uneasy headlines.

80% of jobs could disappear by 2045

According to Khosla, AI could absorb up to 80% of current jobs by 2045. If that happens, he argues, work becomes a choice. Lower labor costs would push prices down, making goods and services cheaper.

Sales and customer support
Healthcare diagnostics and triage
Accounting and compliance
Writing and content production

Creative and managerial roles would narrow too, he says, as agents plan, sell, and iterate at scale. The long tail of tasks becomes software-defined.

An economy without employment: promise or paradox?

Khosla pairs his forecast with social supports like universal basic income. Some tech leaders, Elon Musk among them, even suggest money could fade as AI scales. Supporters picture financial security untethered from payrolls, free time swelling as routine tasks vanish. Critics ask whether companies will pass savings to consumers or keep margins elevated.

Skepticism from economists

Economists note automation arrives unevenly, slowed by regulation, liability, and trust, and they counter with cooler data and thorny logistics. Taxing giant platforms to fund income floors could prove unstable across cycles and jurisdictions. And recent evidence shows limited disruption: 90% of surveyed executives reported no AI-driven change to jobs or productivity over the past 3 years, projecting just 1.4% productivity and 0.8% output gains by 2029 (a multi-firm survey). Could this grand timeline be more mirage than map?

Where tech meets optimism

Khosla’s outlook is shaped by proximity to the frontier: Khosla Ventures has backed OpenAI (since 2019). His bet reflects a wider struggle between techno-optimism and institutional friction. The abundance narrative is magnetic, yet implementation is granular and slow. Whether AI remakes labor wholesale or settles into complementarity, the next decade will test assumptions more than slogans.