Elon Musk has never been one for modest projections, but his latest forecast makes a typical bull market look like a rounding error.
Speaking remotely to the Abundance Summit last week, Musk told XPRIZE founder Peter Diamandis that the global economy is on the verge of an explosion so massive it defies historical precedent.
“I’d say the economy is 10 times its current size in 10 years,” Musk said, before quickly clarifying that the growth could be even more explosive. “Greater than,” he added, framing the projected shift in economic output as a “fairly comfortable prediction.”
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While a tenfold increase represents a 900% increase from today’s output, Musk offered one massive, looming asterisk to his vision of a hyper-abundant future.
“Obviously if there’s like World War III or something, that could put a kink in those plans or those expectations,” Musk warned. “But in the absence of World War III, if current trends continue, I would say the economy 10xes in 10 years.”
The catalyst for this vertical climb isn’t traditional manufacturing or trade, but the “hard takeoff” of artificial intelligence. Musk explained that civilization is currently moving through a period of recursive self-improvement, where AI models are increasingly being used to design and build their successors.
For investors looking to tap into the AI revolution Musk describes, Rad AI offers exposure to the AI ecosystem, with opportunities to invest in companies at the forefront of this transformative technology.
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According to Musk, the human element in this loop is fading fast. He noted that every successive model is being built by the one before it, a process he expects could be fully automated as early as the end of this year. This rapid-fire evolution has reached a point where Musk claims even he struggles to keep track, noting that massive breakthroughs seem to happen every time he wakes up.
To illustrate the scale of this expansion, Musk looked toward the energy output of the sun. He argued that even if civilization increased its energy usage by a million times to power this new level of intelligence, we would still only be harnessing a tiny fraction—roughly a millionth—of the energy available in our solar system.