With the date of the upcoming by-elections expected in late May but still to be finalised, parties have mostly selected their candidates for Dublin Central and Galway West and canvassing is getting under way on the ground.
The electoral contest in Galway West is for the seat held by Catherine Connolly before she was elected President of Ireland.
RóisÃn Cullen takes a look at the constituency and the candidates vying to be the next TD for the constituency.
This week, Sinn Féin became the latest party to field a candidate in the race for the Galway West seat vacated by Catherine Connolly after she was elected President.
Mark Lohan, a trade union official, will campaign for the Dáil seat in this large constituency that incorporates Galway city and environs, Conamara and all of the west of the county and the Aran Islands.
Other declared candidates so far include Sean Kyne of Fine Gael, Labour’s Helen Ogbu, Noel Thomas from Independent Ireland, and Independent Thomas Welby.
MÃde Nic Fhionnlaoich is standing for the Social Democrats, the Green Party is represented by Niall Murphy, Denman Rooke runs for People Before Profit, while Orla Nugent is the Aontú candidate.
Canadian native Sheila Garrity, a lecturer in early childhood education, who was campaign manager for Ms Connolly’s presidential campaign has been mooted by some as the continuity Connolly candidate.
It is thought the current Mayor of Galway, Independent Mike Cubbard, may also run.
He could provide strong competition for Noel Thomas who is making use of his strong Conamara base, and is currently favoured by the bookies.
Independent Ireland councillor Mr Thomas resigned from Fianna Fáil after facing disciplinary action for comments he made in the wake of a fire that destroyed the Ross Lake House Hotel in Rosscahill in December 2023. The hotel was earmarked for the housing of international protection applicants.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil know the challenge at hand
A by-election is often seen as a referendum on the current government.
And government parties have won just three times from 26 attempts in by-elections over the last three decades.
With rising oil prices and a worsening cost-of-living crisis, the two main parties know the challenge at hand in May.
A Fine Gael backbencher said the party is putting in a strong effort and getting behind Senator Kyne but it will come down to support on the ground.
They acknowledged it will be difficult for a government party to be successful.
Fianna Fáil will hold a convention at the end of this month to select a candidate
Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil has yet to show its hand in this race. It has not held two seats in this constituency since 2011.
Broadcaster Gráinne Seoige polled only 5% in the 2024 General Election and failed to take a second Fianna Fáil seat.
The party’s convention to select a candidate is on 29 March with councillors Alan Cheevers, Cillian Keane and MáirtÃn Lee currently nominated.
Party TD John Connolly said Fianna Fáil believes it has a “good chance”.
All three candidates definitely seeking the nomination have contested previous elections and are experienced, said Mr Connolly.
“There has been good engagement with delegates,” he says.
Mr Connolly said it has been “heartening” to see candidates out garnering support.
Fianna Fáil left it ‘very late’ to announce candidate – Ó Cuiv
Éamon Ó CuÃv, retired Fianna Fáil TD and Éamon de Valera’s grandson, had publicly mulled over standing again.
In the end he clarified to Tuairisc.ie that he was joking about throwing his hat in the ring.
Mr Ó Cuiv told RTÉ News this weekend that Fianna Fáil has left it “very late” to announce a candidate.
Whether, it is too late will only be known on the day of the count, he said.
The largest Opposition party in the area, Sinn Féin, will use this by-election to “punish the Government”, he said.
Sinn Féin’s Mairéad Farrell topped the poll here in last year’s General Election and this by-election provides a large opportunity for the party.
Mr Ó Cuiv held a seat in Galway West between 1992 until his retirement in 2024.
He said “normally oppositions win by-elections” and that Mr Thomas is currently the “most out in the public”.
“The bookies are rarely wrong,” he said.
Mr Ó Cuiv said the ability to speak Irish in Galway West “wouldn’t elect you” but is a “huge addition”.
Galway West an ‘open race’, says lecturer
In the 2024 General Election, the five seats in this constituency went to Fianna Fáil’s John Connolly, Fine Gael’s Hildegarde Naughton, Sinn Féin’s Mairéad Farrell, Independent Noel Grealish, and now-President Connolly.
The bulk of voters are based in Galway city but people in the rural communities and Conamara, where many still speak the Irish language, will be crucial to the outcome.
Dr Eoin Daly, from University of Galway’s School of Law, has been closely watching what he sees as an “open race”.
“Historically governments hardly ever win by-elections,” he said, adding that there is “an opposition advantage” for this particular seat.
“It wouldn’t look good for the government party because of it being midterm and because of the impending inflation and energy crisis,” he said.
He said the number of home heating trucks currently on the road in the area is striking.
People are concerned, said Dr Daly, suggesting that people could protest vote against the Government.
However, he said it would be hard to see the left rallying around a candidate that was not President Connolly, stressing that a by-election is a different ballgame to a Presidential Election.
The parties that backed Catherine Connolly in the presidential election secured almost 25% of first preferences in Galway in 2024
“It could come down to the person rather than the party,” he said.
‘Left momentum and left wave’
Meanwhile, candidates on the left are hoping the “magic” of the left alliance during Ms Connolly’s presidential campaign can be repeated.
They will be hoping to benefit from the emergence of a new group Tonn na Clé (the Left Wave).
It’s a grassroots movement of 330 members that wants to build on the success of the Presidential Election and is eager to play a crucial role in this by-election.
Founding Member Michelle Nà Chléirigh said they will support six candidates in a vote left, transfer left pact.
They are: Labour’s Helen Ogbu, People before Profit’s Denman Rooke, Sinn Féin’s Mark Lohan, Social Democrats MÃde Nic Fhionnlaoich, Green Party’s Niall Murphy and Independent Sheila Garrity.
These candidates were involved in the President’s campaign in some shape or form, said Ms Nà Chléirigh.
She said Tonn na Clé will be supporting the six candidates in its community equally and hopes the left will emerge stronger as a result of this by-election.
A “left momentum and left wave” is emerging from Galway West, she said.
“We’re seeing excellent alignment that was the movement and some of the magic that came through from it [the Presidential Election] that has transformed left politics,” said Ms Chléirigh.
“That magic is very much alive and building strength.”
However, a source within Fine Gael dismissed the emergence of a left alliance, saying it will quickly become “dog-eat-dog” once the race heats up.
A lot can change between now and May with experts suggesting that inflation could become an even bigger issues for households by then, depending on developments in the Iran war.
It is likely then voters will be watching oil prices, how much they are paying at the pumps and cost of living issues.
They may only focus on the by-election in the final days of the campaign and will be deciding the candidate they think will best serve their interests and those of Galway West in the Dáil.