Pop goes that sweet, sweet Carabao – it’s time for the EFL Cup final!
Arsenal and Man City meet under the Wembley arch this Sunday in the Carabao Cup final and we’ve assembled a crack team of football flutterers to have their say on the first piece of proper silverware handed out this season.
Peter Crouch, Joe Cole, Andrew Beasley, Andy Robson and Feargal Brennan have all pitched in with their favourite bets for Arsenal v Man City…
Who’ll lift the Trophy?
Peter Crouch
I fancy Arsenal to do the job on Sunday – I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s reasonably comfortable in the end.
Joe Cole
I’m going to go with Manchester City to win. I don’t think it’ll be cagey as it’s a one-off game that they can just put everything aside and go and try and win
Andrew Beasley
Arsenal. They’re unbeaten in the previous six meetings, have been the better team for the last two seasons and are in better form now. It won’t be pretty though.
Feargal Brennan
Pep Guardiola was Mr EFL Cup in his early years at City with four successive titles from 2018 to 2021. However, they’ve not reached the final since then and City’s season is in danger of taking another hit on Sunday. Mikel Arteta has broken his long Premier League hoodoo against his old team, with Arsenal unbeaten in their last six in all competitions, and I firmly fancy the Gunners to lift the first trophy of this season this weekend.
andy Robson
I can see Manchester City getting over the line here given their vastly superior experience in finals compared to Mikel Arteta’s side. Pep Guardiola has won 21 of the 24 cup finals that he has taken charge of in his managerial career, including winning the EFL Cup on four occasions with Manchester City – most recently in the 2020/21 season. Arsenal have been the best side in Europe this season, but I don’t think this final will be their main priority.
How Will they do it?
Peter Crouch
Extra time and penalties are in the mix on Sunday, but I’m going for the Gunners in 90 minutes. 3-1 to Mikel Arteta’s side looks a decent shout to me.
Joe Cole
It will be an entertaining final. I’m going for 3-2 City in 90 minutes.
Andrew Beasley
The obvious answer is from a corner. These teams usually produce low scoring games, with no more than two goals in four of the last five clashes that didn’t feature a red card. I’ll say 1-0 Arsenal in normal time, though extra time wouldn’t be a shock.
Feargal Brennan
This is where it could get a little interesting. With both of them being in midweek Champions League action, I don’t think Pep or Mikel will want extra time, so I can see Arsenal getting it done in 90 minutes.
andy Robson
The recent meetings between the sides have generally been quite tight, aside from Arsenal coming away 5-1 winners over Manchester City in February last year. I’m expecting another tight game here, Arsenal usually stay within touching distance when playing against other top six sides, so I can’t see a commanding victory for either side in the final – it will be tight, and possibly go the distance. The tight nature of this game would probably benefit Arsenal if it was a league game, but Pep Guardiola and City have so much experience in the squad of navigating these finals, which is notably absent in this Arsenal side. I see City getting a narrow win in 90 minutes, or coming out on top in a penalty shoot-out – giving them the edge on account of their superior experience in cup finals.
Who’s Going to score the goals?
Peter Crouch
Eberechi Eze performed well against Leverkusen and I fancy him to cause City problems again, while Gabriel Martinelli has a good record against City too, but Bukayo Saka stands out for me in an Arsenal win.
Joe Cole
I’m going to go with Antoine Semenyo to score. He’s had seven goals already since joining City from Bournemouth and looks at home already.
Andrew Beasley
I’ve backed myself into an Arsenal corner here. Their recent goals against Manchester City were mostly from defenders (shock) or left wingers. It’ll probably be a Gabriel – Magalhaes scored at the Etihad last season, Martinelli bagged the Gunners’ only goal in two of the last five meetings. But if Leandro Trossard starts over the latter, pick him. No Arsenal player has scored more goals against the Premier League top six this season.
Feargal Brennan
Erling Haaland obviously feels like the go-to, but Gabriel Martinelli has been a thorn in City’s side in recent years. He scored a late equaliser against them earlier this season in the Premier League and the winner in Arsenal’s 2023 victory. After only playing 20 minutes against Leverkusen, he should start, and will be keen to run at City’s struggling defence.
andy Robson
I’m really pulled to the price of Antoine Semenyo to find the back of the net in this final. He has scored seven goals across his 16 appearances for Manchester City since joining the club in January, and is City’s biggest goal threat outside of Erling Haaland, who can be afforded very intense attention in games like this. Only Erling Haaland (22) and Igor Thiago (19) have scored more goals in the Premier League this season, so it’s no exaggeration to call Semenyo one of the best goalscorers in the country at the moment. If we take away penalty goals from this tally, then Semenyo is the joint-2nd top scorer in the division with 14 goals to his name.
Anyone you fancy for a card?
Peter Crouch
Bernardo Silva got sent off versus Madrid for his handball and has been in referees’ sights a lot this season. That’s his 14th card in all competitions – 13 yellows and one red. He leads City’s squad for fouls in the league this season too with 34 and is averaging over one per game all season.
Joe Cole
I think it’ll be an open game so don’t really fancy too many cards.
Andrew Beasley
If he’s fit, Jurrien Timber. He’s committed a foul in 26 Premier League matches this season, the joint-most of any player. Failing that, perhaps a surprising name for you: Erling Haaland. He’s been penalised for 11 fouls in games between these teams in the last three seasons, at least four more than anyone else.
Feargal Brennan
Bernardo Silva has been City’s card king this season with his dismissal against Real Madrid moving him onto 14 for the season. As captain, he’ll be itching to start, and he has seven cautions in his last 12 games against the Gunners.
andy Robson
Rodri is worth focusing on for a few fouls and a card in this game, he has a long history with Arsenal – including picking up that ACL injury against the Gunners, which has disrupted his career for the last few seasons. Rodri has picked up two yellow cards across his 14 starts in the Premier League this season while averaging 0.72 fouls committed per 90. I’d expect his foul output to increase here, given that it is a cup final, and Rodri is a player who doesn’t hide his pride. Rodri tends to pick up cautions in high profile games, his two yellow cards in the Premier League this season have come against Tottenham and Manchester United, indicating that this cup final is the perfect stage for Rodri to pick up a caution from a few fouls.
Any other bets you fancy?
Peter Crouch
I’ve predicted quite a few goals, so over 3.5 makes sense to me.
Joe Cole
Gabriel Magalhaes to have 1+ shots on target because they look to him at every set piece
Andrew Beasley
Take a low corner count. The 2024 final between Chelsea and Liverpool saw just five in normal time, Wembley games are often light on corners. Five of the 12 league games between Arsenal and City in the Mikel Arteta era featured a maximum of seven, with the matches averaging just 8.8 each. Go as low as you dare limbo.
Feargal Brennan
Looking at the 1-1 draw in September, Bukayo Saka flagged up six foul involvements, more than any other player in that game. He averages 2.5 based on his last four appearances, so I fancy him for 3+ foul involvements at Wembley.
andy Robson
There are two angles that are worth exploring outside of your usual markets. One of those is both teams to be shown 2+ cards. This is pretty generously priced at time of publishing of 13/10, it’s been priced along Arsenal’s tame disciplinary record across the season as a whole – but I think the context of this game makes it worthwhile to test these card lines. Manchester City have been way more aggressive this season when out of possession compared to last season – already just one card fewer (56) than their card tally across the entirety of last season (57). The natural competitive edge between the sides because of the title race should also aid this selection at a generous price. I think it’s also worth looking at either team to win on penalties, and Manchester City to win on penalties. I think the final will be tight, but going the distance surely suits City more than Arsenal with the extra experience that City have in the side.
*All odds quoted are correct at time of publication but subject to change
READ MORE
Tap here for PP.com’s latest football odds
The Paddy Power Guide To Safer Gambling – Everything You Need To Know
