Here we are, then. The clocks have gone forward, it’s post-Easter, into the business end of the season and we still don’t really know how good this Leinster team is, or will prove to be, come silverware time in May and June. One suspects they’re not exactly sure themselves.
We would normally have a better idea by now. Normally, they would be more cohesive and would have hit a run of wins by now. Granted, Leinster are consistently kickstarting their season back to life due to matters beyond their control. The Six Nations hiatus was the most recent illustration of this, while the Lions tour had a real impact on proceedings at the start of the season.
After carving a swathe through the pool stages three seasons ago, Ulster shook them to their core in the round of 16. They were also less than convincing against Leicester 12 months later. Then, last season, at this same juncture, they routed Harlequins 62-0 before beating Glasgow 52-0 a week later. It did them a fat lot of good come the semi-final at home to Northampton.
Ultimately, what matters most is the result. However, after underwhelming defeats away to Cardiff and Glasgow, Leinster needed more than a win last Sunday against Edinburgh. On balance, they achieved it.
The previous week’s win, at home against the Scarlets, had felt like Leinster’s real seasonal opener. Then, last Sunday, their set-piece, breakdown work, launch plays and the quality of their seven tries were, collectively, the best they’ve been this season.
That five of their seven tries were scored by outside backs is an indication of their width and adventure. For sure, leaking five tries and 31 points will not cut it against Sale Sharks in Saturday’s quarter-final. And it certainly wouldn’t do against Glasgow or one of the French giants.
But three of those were intercept tries and thus somewhat self-inflicted. In other words, they are fixable and better to do them in the round of 16 than later.
Their Irish frontliners are in very good form now. Andrew Porter and Hugo Keenan look in good nick and Ryan Baird’s return is a major boost. In the absence of RG Snyman, Baird provides qualities different from any other Leinster player. Harry Byrne’s composed all-round display in orchestrating the attack was very reassuring.
Ryan Baird of Leinster pushes past the tackles of two Edinburgh players during Sunday’s Champions Cup round of 16 at the Aviva Stadium. Photograph: Bryan Keane/Inpho
Then there was Rieko Ioane’s classy performance for an hour at outside centre and a quarter on the wing. He chipped in with two try assists and a nimble-footed finish.
In a recent interview with The Irish Times, Ioane acknowledged there had been an adjustment period. But he had been happy with his first block of games, as had been the coaches. He outlined how the target, for himself and Leinster, was to be “firing at finals time”.
His spiky reaction to scoring the last try against Edinburgh was vintage Ioane and good to see. It confirmed he is very emotionally engaged to his new team.
Reflecting Leinster’s patchy season to date, where previously they would have been shorter odds and probably favourites to win the Champions Cup at this point, currently they are second favourites at 11-4 behind Bordeaux Bègles at 23-10.
One suspects Leinster would be third favourites, behind Bordeaux Bègles and Toulouse, but for the draw. Whoever wins Sunday’s all-French clash in Bordeaux will become the warmest of favourites
to lay their hands on the trophy in Bilbao.
Although Leinster’s attack was more culpable than their defence in conceding five tries last Sunday, the fear remains that their Springboks-style blitz defence is essentially too alien and will be exposed, if not by Sale or Glasgow, then by one of the big French duo.
Once again, Leinster outdid Munster. In one respect, this was not in the manner they would have wanted – by conceding three intercept tries instead of two. What is it with these intercept tries?
Clayton McMillan, head coach of Munster. Photograph: Michael Steele/Getty
Munster’s season hit a new low in that first period in Exeter, when they trailed 31-0 at the break. Clayton McMillan, his coaching staff and the squad now have a real challenge to minimise the potential damage. Two wins in their last 10 games, unconvincingly at home to Zebre and the Dragons, is worrying form.
Maybe the first of two weeks respite in the URC run-in, as they seek to salvage a place in the play-offs and next season’s Champions Cup, will be helpful, akin to their URC title charge three seasons ago. One positive was the performance of their Irish-qualified former New Zealand under-20 scrumhalf Ben O’Donovan, who looks very assured in all the basics of the position.
After a trek to Benetton in a fortnight, Munster have two huge derbies at home to Ulster and, after another week off, away to Connacht before hosting the Lions in their final game. Eight-pointers abound.
Connacht’s season continues to progress in the opposite trajectory. Friday’s win over an admittedly half-hearted Sharks, was their sixth in succession and further demonstrated their improvement in both red zones. Stuart Lancaster, the team and the home fans at the Dexcom are building momentum by the week.
But they have a demanding balancing act henceforth. On Saturday, they revisit Montpellier, where the shoots of something special were very evident in January’s pool meeting, as they scored four good tries to lead 31-14 entering the last quarter before losing 33-31.
After this, they must immediately fly to South Africa for challenging games against the Stormers and Lions. Were they to lose to Montpellier, the silver lining would be a week off before hosting Munster and then a trek to Edinburgh.
Ulster rode their luck in eventually beating the Ospreys in horrid conditions to earn a quarter-final at home to La Rochelle, which takes place next Friday. Their Irish Triple Crown winners are flying and Richie Murphy’s balancing act in negotiating a URC run-in against Leinster, Munster, the Stormers and Glasgow is helped by all bar the Munster game being in Belfast.
They’re in a good place, one they’d have taken at the start of the season.