Picking winning stocks could lead your portfolio into millionaire territory over time — so it’s important to choose wisely. How to do that? By selecting companies with strong competitive positions and long-term prospects. And it’s key to get in on these players for reasonable prices and aim to hold on for a number of years.
Today, investors may look to two pharma giants operating in a high-growth market — a market forecast to reach almost $100 billion by the end of the decade. These companies have been selling products that lead in this market and deliver blockbuster revenue, and these players have also recently introduced new products that could keep the growth going. I’m talking about the weight loss drug market and key actors Novo Nordisk (NVO +1.90%) and Eli Lilly (LLY +2.22%). Which of these healthcare giants is more likely to be a millionaire maker? Let’s find out.
Image source: Getty Images.
The case for Novo Nordisk
Novo Nordisk was the first to commercialize a certain product that took the weight loss drug market by storm: the GLP-1 drug. This class of drugs acts on hormones involved in digestion, helping control appetite and blood sugar levels. Regulators in 2017 approved Novo’s semaglutide as Ozempic for type 2 diabetes, then gave the nod to semaglutide as Wegovy for weight loss. These are injectable drugs, administered weekly.
Sales soared as demand roared higher, and at certain points in time, it even exceeded supply. Eli Lilly’s market entrance resulted in competition, but Novo has attempted to stay a step ahead, at least from a timeline perspective. The pharma company became the first to win approval for an oral GLP-1 drug late last year when regulators gave the OK to oral Wegovy. And performance so far looks promising: The company noted “rapid early uptake” of the pill, and a study by Truveta showed that more than 36% of oral Wegovy users are new to GLP-1 drugs. This latter point is key as it shows that a GLP-1 pill may expand the number of potential patients.
Today’s Change
(1.90%) $0.70
Current Price
$37.61
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$124B
Day’s Range
$37.33 – $38.19
52wk Range
$35.12 – $81.44
Volume
14M
Avg Vol
24M
Gross Margin
80.90%
Dividend Yield
4.88%
The case for Eli Lilly
Eli Lilly joined Novo in this market in recent years with tirzepatide, approved as Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and as Zepbound for weight loss. And, importantly, it’s managed to leap past Novo in the U.S. market: Lilly’s drugs now have 60% share.
The reason for this movement? Lilly has invested heavily in manufacturing to boost the availability of its products, and a head-to-head study of tirzepatide versus semaglutide showed that the former resulted in greater weight loss. These elements may have won over doctors as they considered which drug to prescribe for patients. And it’s resulted in explosive revenue growth for Lilly, with Mounjaro and Zepbound together bringing in more than $36 billion last year.
Lilly just recently won approval for its oral weight loss drug — Foundayo — so as of now, it will also be competing with Novo in this space. It will be important to keep an eye on the uptake of Foundayo in the coming weeks to see if doctors and patients shift toward this option — or stick with oral Wegovy.
Today’s Change
(2.22%) $20.67
Current Price
$951.76
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$880B
Day’s Range
$933.70 – $961.13
52wk Range
$623.78 – $1133.95
Volume
123K
Avg Vol
3.2M
Gross Margin
83.04%
Dividend Yield
0.67%
Which is more likely to be a millionaire maker?
Novo has lost the market share battle so far in the U.S., and Lilly has emerged as the leader. As patients have increasingly turned to Lilly, this company has delivered a stronger revenue performance.
LLY Revenue (Annual) data by YCharts
As a result, Lilly’s stock has soared, and the shares trade at a significant premium to those of Novo.
LLY PE Ratio (Forward) data by YCharts
If we look at valuation, we may say that Novo, at a bargain level, could attract more investors and then take off — and that may help you on your way to millions. And oral Wegovy could be a growth driver in the months to come.
I would be comfortable with this scenario if Lilly were absent from the oral GLP-1 market. But with Foundayo just launching, and the fact that it may be more convenient than oral Wegovy — Foundayo can be taken with food and beverages — the Lilly pill may be on its way to gaining significant market share. This might drive further revenue growth at Lilly and stock performance, and such a trend could weigh on Novo.
So, Lilly may be well-positioned to extend its leadership. That said, at today’s share price and valuation level, I wouldn’t expect this stock to be a multi-bagger, and on its own, make you a millionaire. As part of a diversified portfolio, however, Lilly may be more likely than Novo to offer you significant growth — and help your portfolio reach into the millions.