The Republic of Ireland beat Poland 3-2 in Gdansk in their World Cup qualifier, their first win of the campaign, to move up to third in Group A2 ahead of Poland, behind the Netherlands and France. Ireland play Poland in the return fixture at the Aviva Stadium in Dublin on Saturday at 3pm.
Ireland could still top their group if they win their remaining games and other results go their way. Should the Netherlands beat France again in Saturday’s other game in the group and Ireland repeat the trick of winning against Poland, then a chance to finish second opens up, as Carla Ward’s side would be on the same points as France with two games remaining. But finishing third is a more realistic target given the strength of the Dutch and French, both top 10 teams in the world who beat Ireland in their opening games in March.
Ireland’s World Cup Group A2 as it stands Would finishing second or third qualify Ireland for the World Cup?
No it won’t, but it would be an incredible achievement to qualify automatically. This World Cup qualifying campaign doubles up as the Nations League, but only the winners from the four League A groups, the highest division in European football, qualify for the 2027 World Cup in Brazil. World champions Spain are among the teams that could struggle to qualify automatically, having lost to England on Tuesday night.
So what happens then if Ireland are in the playoffs?
Thirty-two teams across Leagues A, B and C qualify for a playoff bonanza in the October and November international breaks, which will include two rounds of home-and-away knockout matches. Ireland are already guaranteed a spot if they fail to qualify automatically.
In Path 1, the runners-up and third-place teams from League A will be drawn against the group winners and two best-ranked runners-up from League C. The League A teams will be seeded.
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In Path 2, the fourth-place teams from League A and the group winners from League B will be drawn against the runners-up and third-place teams from League B. The fourth-place League A teams and League B group winners will be seeded.
In the final round, the winners from Path 1 will be drawn against the winner from Path 2, with Path 1 teams seeded.
All those teams go through then to the World Cup?
Not quite. The top seven ranked teams from the playoffs will qualify, the eighth-ranked team, based on their overall league ranking (how many points they accrued in the initial league groups), will have to play one more game in the inter-confederation playoffs.
Seems complicated. So why does it matter if Ireland finish third or fourth in their group now then?
While it is not quite a do-or-die situation, if Ireland finish third in League A, their first-round playoff should be considerably easier against a League C team, the bottom division of European football. Finishing fourth would lead to a more difficult game, albeit one for which they would still be favourites. For their all-important second round tie, they would avoid other second and third-placed teams in League A, which could include Spain or England. They would also be seeded and play their second leg at home.
What other benefits would come from finishing at least third in their group?
From a Nations League standpoint, it would be beneficial long-term to avoid relegation to League B. Ireland would be in League A for the next edition of the Nations League, which would give them a chance to qualify automatically for Euro 2029 in Germany, and also increase their chances of a favourable playoff for the European tournament. Aside from that, it also gives Ireland more experience playing against Europe’s elite teams.