A short note to flag two Market Notices published Monday afternoon 29th September 2025 as follows, looking forward to this weekend (Saturday 4th October 2025 and Sunday 5th October 2025):
Saturday 4th October 2025
Sunday 5th October 2025
Firstly at 14:50:05 the AEMO published MN129372 as follows:
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MARKET NOTICE
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From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 29/09/2025 14:50:05
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Notice ID : 129372
Notice Type ID : MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description : MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date : 29/09/2025
External Reference : Forecast Minimum System Load (MSL1) condition in the VIC region on 04/10/2025
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Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the VIC region on 04/10/2025.
Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when regional demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are:
o MSL1 – 1675 MW
o MSL2 – 1175 MW
o MSL3 – 675 MW
The regional demand is forecast to be below the MSL1 threshold for the following period:
From 1200 hrs to 1330 hrs 04/10/2025. Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1547 MW at 1300 hrs.
Forecast regional demand (DEMAND50) is published in Short Term and Pre-Dispatch PASA region solution reports available on Market Data NEMWEB: https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/market-data-nemweb.
AEMO Operations
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END OF REPORT
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Then at 14:50:18 the AEMO published MN129373 as follows:
‘——————————————————————-
MARKET NOTICE
——————————————————————-
From : AEMO
To : NEMITWEB1
Creation Date : 29/09/2025 14:50:18
——————————————————————-
Notice ID : 129373
Notice Type ID : MINIMUM SYSTEM LOAD
Notice Type Description : MSL1/MSL2/MSL3
Issue Date : 29/09/2025
External Reference : Forecast Minimum System Load (MSL1) condition in the VIC region on 05/10/2025
——————————————————————-
Reason :
AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
AEMO has detected that there is an elevated risk of insufficient demand to maintain a secure operating state in the VIC region on 05/10/2025.
Minimum System Load (MSL) conditions are forecast when regional demand is less than the relevant MSL threshold. The advisory MSL thresholds are:
o MSL1 – 1535 MW
o MSL2 – 1035 MW
o MSL3 – 535 MW
The regional demand is forecast to be below the MSL1 threshold for the following period:
From 1100 hrs to 1300 hrs 05/10/2025. Minimum regional demand is forecast to be 1399 MW at 1230 hrs.
Forecast regional demand (DEMAND50) is published in Short Term and Pre-Dispatch PASA region solution reports available on Market Data NEMWEB: https://aemo.com.au/en/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/market-data-nemweb .
AEMO Operations
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END OF REPORT
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With the ‘Forecast Convergence’ widget in ez2view, we take a quick look at forecast for the ‘DEMAND50’ term the AEMO references above in the STPASA time horizon:
If time permitted, this might be one to watch more….