Oil steadies as hopes of renewed US-Iran negotiations offset Houthi threat
Oil prices were steady this afternoon, pulling back from earlier highs as price pressure from hopes of renewed US-Iran negotiations was countered by Yemen’s Houthis declaring a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia.
Benchmark prices had earlier touched more than one-month highs on concern over disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The Middle East conflict escalated over the weekend, with the US conducting a ninth night of attacks in a row against Iran while US allies Kuwait and Bahrain reported more Iranian strikes.
Brent crude futures were down six cents, or around 0.1%, at $88.04 a barrel this afternoon after hitting $91.42 for their highest since June 11.
US West Texas Intermediate crude was down two cents, or 0.2%, at $82.29 after touching its highest level since June 12 at $85.39.
Mediators have passed Iran a proposal to de-escalate the war with the US, suggesting a 10-day ceasefire to find ways to revive an interim deal reached last month, a senior Iranian official told Reuters today.
“Considering that the amount that Saudi Arabia was exporting via the Yanbu port, these are significant amounts of oil which are potentially at risk,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
“The market is probably waiting to see how the Houthis will try to impose that blockade -probably the reason why the market has not reacted more strongly, but it’s definitely another concern which could cause a further tightening of the oil market,” he said.
Drop in tanker traffic from Gulf
The collapse of a US-Iran truce has reignited concerns over energy supplies moving through the strait. Before the Iran war, about 20% of global oil supplies flowed through the waterway. Iran has also pressed the Houthis to close the Red Sea route if the US attacks Iranian power infrastructure.
Four vessels made the transit through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, down from eight the previous day, LSEG data showed. At least three oil products tankers and one very large crude carrier have entered the strait since Friday to load oil, the data showed.
Greek shipping company Dynacom Tankers said two of its managed vessels were hit by projectiles of unknown origin on Monday while sailing off the coast of Oman.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said two oil tankers “exploded” and were immobilised after attempting to take what it called an unsafe southern route through the Strait of Hormuz. The Guards also pointed to two ships involved in an “accident” in the same area yesterda.
It was unclear if the two incidents were related or whether they were connected to attacks on the Dynacom vessels.
“The supply narrative has become more bearish. The anticipated recovery in shipping has effectively stalled, with Strait of Hormuz transit volumes falling to single digits,” ANZ analysts said in a note.
Gulf countries boosted crude oil and condensate exports in the first half of July to their highest since before the Iran war began in late February, shipping data showed, though flows through the Strait of Hormuz are slowing as fighting escalates.