How your travel plans have changed because of wars and warzones

Analysis: Airlines have adapted routes and plans to avoid conflict zones, but the real concern for passengers will be higher fuel prices and longer flights

The ripple effects of numerous ongoing conflicts are already being felt and will continue to unfold. The war in Ukraine has been ongoing for over four years, while the constantly-renewing conflict between the US and Iran has had far-reaching consequences in trade, supply and transport.

Airlines are one of the most obvious examples where this impact has been felt. In March, flights to and from the Middle East were cancelled and diverted after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran. A month after the conflict escalated in the Middle East and Gulf region, Eurocontrol reported that there were 59% fewer flights to and from the Middle East to Europe, a drop of 1,200 from the usual 2,000 daily flights. From that, 1,150 flights were rerouted to avoid conflict areas and closed airspaces, meaning an additional 206,000 km were flown because of these reroutings every day.

While airlines have adjusted, the bad news is that there’s no end in sight for these conflicts, says Dr David Murphy, director of the MA in Military History & Strategic Studies at Maynooth University. “This is a war of choice, he says of the US-Iran conflict. “We keep being told that discussions are going on, and Iran comes out and says there aren’t. Pakistan, who are the intermediaries in this, have not indicated that anything serious is happening.” The most benign way to stop this is to reset the diplomacy, he says, but there seems to be no sign the cycle is breaking with missile attacks happening both ways in recent days.

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With these conflicts continuing, Professor Marina Efthymiou, professor of Aviation Management at Dublin City University’s Business School, explains there are both direct and indirect effects. The direct effects are on airlines and the routes they take, while the indirect effects are higher fuel and energy costs.

“Where it becomes interesting is how long these disruptions are going on and whether it gets normalised or not,” says Efthymiou. When the Ukraine-Russia war emerged, the airlines didn’t know how to handle it… those airspaces have closed, and airlines have adapted.”

“For a passenger, the risk management is simple as they can just rebook, but for airlines, it’s a very complicated affair.”

She adds that what makes the Middle East and UAE regions different is how much of a structural dependency there was on it for flights. “It exposed a structural dependency on it as it is a massive bidirectional hub connecting traffic.” The result is such airline traffic is rerouted through airports further north, like Istanbul and other neighbouring airports.

Risk management

With such events being so prominent, it’s understandable that passengers may be concerned about flight routes and costs. The key thing to remember is that airlines are well prepared for such scenarios, with the key term being risk management, explains Fahad ibne Masood, lecturer in transport and aviation at the School of Transport & Civil Engineering at TU Dublin.

“For the airline, it is a complex exercise of risk management,” he says. “For a passenger, the risk management is simple as they can just rebook. But for airlines, it’s a very complicated affair.”

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While passenger sentiment matters, Masood mentions that airlines have good reasons to keep serving the routes they fly, even if adjusted. For one, they have spent a lot of money identifying and buying these routes. Another reason is that they generate revenue transporting cargo as well as transporting passengers.

Larger airlines, especially legacy or full-cost carriers, may also have state backing, giving them enough clout to influence policy. They would use diplomatic channels to ensure their flights continue without hindrance.

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“Qatar Airways, which is at the heart of the Iran war, rarely cancelled their flights,” points out Masood. “There were emergency diversions to other airports, but they made sure to continue operating. They utilised diplomatic political channels because it is a state-backed airline.”

The price of flying

What may concern passengers more is the cost of flying both with finances and their time. Alongside longer routes, fuel reserves have been a major concern with Europe drawing supplies from other territories like Canada, Nigeria, America, and Asia to prevent shortages.

“There’s not an acute scarcity now, but there is less of it flowing around,” says Dr David Murphy. “The prices have gone up, and [the questions are] how that’s going to play out now or later on in the year, and how we can sustain that.”

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For airlines and airports, there are winners and losers with much of it based on geography. While airports like Istanbul benefit from increased traffic, higher fuel prices and longer flights can influence passengers’ choices and impact airlines.

“For Finnair in Finland, it will take two hours longer to fly to Asia, so that airline has been significantly disadvantaged,” explains Prof Efthymiou. “You don’t want to be flying longer, so you won’t be connecting anymore in Helsinki; you will try and go to Amsterdam or Istanbul.”

When it comes to conflict zones, Fahad Masood says passengers shouldn’t feel anxious as airlines have enough resilience and contingency plans to navigate them. “Passengers should not be feeling anxious about these conflicts. Airlines are doing their due diligence because yes, the life of a person or passenger is important, but the life of the airline is also there.”

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The views expressed here are those of the author and do not represent or reflect the views of RTÉ

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