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Russia is maneuvering a spy satellite on a collision course. The USA has deployed weapons in orbit. Musk is influencing the Ukraine war with Starlink. And Europe is watching with 80 satellites. Outer space has long been a war zone. An analysis.
Thousands of kilometers above Earth, the Russian spy satellite Kosmos 2612 has been tracking the Finnish radar satellite ICEYE-X36 for weeks, which provides imaging data to Ukraine – silently, without explosion, without science fiction drama. At the same time, the USA has for the first time confirmed deploying weapons in space.
Meanwhile, China is planning a mega-constellation of 13,000 satellites and is marching towards the Moon. “We are incredibly vulnerable because our, especially the European, infrastructure in space is not at all prepared for the event of a military conflict,” says Walter Ballheimer, founder of the Munich aerospace startup Reflex Aerospace, in an interview with BR24 for “Possoch klärt.”
Outer space has never been peaceful – now it is becoming more dangerous.
Space travel has always been driven by military interests, from V2 and Sputnik through the Cold War to today. What has changed is the pace and dimension. Jamming, spoofing, ground-based lasers that blind satellite cameras: the war in space is already happening. Enrico Fels, managing director of the security policy research center CASSIS at the University of Bonn, draws the conclusion: The dimension of space is so essential for modern warfare that future military conflicts between great powers will inevitably also be fought in orbit.
The USA has just confirmed for the first time that it has deployed weapons in space. Russia and China are presumably developing such weapons as well. Which ones? That is strictly classified. In fact, “space weapons” are not clearly defined under international law. The spectrum ranges from lasers and electromagnetic disruption systems to satellites with grappling arms to rockets or nuclear explosions.
A piece of debris with the energy of a hand grenade.
The real dilemma in the arms race in space is of a structural nature. A sunken ship goes under. A destroyed satellite generates thousands of pieces of debris that race through orbit at seven kilometers per second. Thus, each one-centimeter-sized piece carries the kinetic energy of a hand grenade. If this debris hits other satellites, a chain reaction occurs: the Kessler syndrome. Low Earth orbit would be unusable for generations. For everyone.
What this means for everyday life is often underestimated: GPS not only provides navigational coordinates but also the atomic time standard for the banking system. Without GPS, no debit cards and no stock trading. Power grids synchronize their 50 hertz frequency via GPS signals. If the satellite infrastructure fails, a Europe-wide blackout threatens. Fels calls this scenario a “spaceout” – with very serious consequences, not only economically but also politically.
Germany is focusing on disruptors, lasers, and inspector satellites in the establishment of the Bundeswehr’s space command. Deliberately nothing that generates additional debris. Major General Michael Traut, commander of the space command, sums up the dilemma with the image of a Roman gladiator who goes into the arena with only a shield: deterrence also requires offensive components. “I would be a bad military if I didn’t consider this option,” Traut said in August at “7 Fragen Zukunft.”
Leapfrogging as an opportunity: Can Europe catch up?
The balance of power is drastic: Elon Musk operates over 10,000 Starlink satellites, the US military is building the secret reconnaissance network “Starshield” on it. China is planning a state mega-constellation of 13,000 satellites with “Guowang.” Germany possesses around 80 satellites both civil and military combined.
When the EU wanted to reserve its own frequencies for European providers, the USA openly threatened with “devastating retaliation.” Even among allies, the rule in orbit is: whoever occupies frequencies and orbits dictates the rules.
Ballheimer warns against simply copying what SpaceX has already built. Europe’s only chance is leapfrogging: skipping technology generations. Micro-launchers from European launch sites, spacecraft that can take off from any airport: next-generation technologies that would allow Europe to play competitively again instead of always lagging behind.
Fels calculates what would be necessary: The Bundeswehr plans to invest around 100 billion euros by 2040 to operate up to 1,200 of their own satellites. That sounds like a lot, but, according to Fels, given the strategic importance of orbit, it is “extremely well invested.” Those who do not shape outer space will be blind in case of emergency.
An article written by Dominic Possoch (BR), initially published on 23 October 2026, 09:37 (CEST)