But this move is unlikely to transform the market. Those 7,000 dwellings represent just 0.4% of the national housing stock, and only those listed for sale are eligible.
“Once you account for all that, you’re looking at maybe 200-300 extra transactions a year, and only in upper-end areas,” Davidson said. “Yes, there might be a price effect in those fancy suburbs, but elsewhere the rule change will be largely irrelevant.”
Dwelling consents hold steady
Another reason for caution about a rapid house price rebound in 2026 is the steady level of new construction. While not a glut, the number of new dwellings consented in July was 3% lower than the same month last year, according to Stats NZ. However, the annual total remains in a tight range of 33,500 to 34,000 – much higher than in previous downturns.
Net migration remains weak
Stats NZ will release July’s migration figures this week. New arrivals have been dropping, while departures – especially among young Kiwis – remain high. Net migration is trending downward, though the rate of decline has slowed. This ongoing weakness is a key reason why property rents remain sluggish.
Economic hopes rest on August data
All eyes are on Friday’s release of August updates for manufacturing and retail. There were hints of improvement in July, so a continued upturn would be welcome news for both the housing market and the broader economy, OneRoof reported.