China’s exports grew at the slowest pace in six months in August, as trade tensions with the US continued to weigh on the country’s economic outlook.
Exports added 4.4 per cent in dollar terms last month on a year earlier, according to data released by China’s customs administration on Monday, missing forecasts in a Reuters poll and trailing 7.2 per cent growth in July.
Imports rose 1.3 per cent, also at a slower pace than expected and less than July’s figure of 4.1 per cent.
While the exports reading was the lowest since the beginning of 2025, it nonetheless adds to sustained growth in the months following the eruption of a full-blown trade war with the US in April.
A series of truces since then has temporarily reduced sky-high tariff levels on either side, but the world’s two largest economies have yet to carve out a longer-term agreement on trade.
Beijing, which is facing concerns over the strength of consumer momentum domestically, has relied heavily on exports to power growth in recent years, even as its high trade surpluses have put pressure on its relationships with trading partners. Exports in dollar terms have not declined since March last year.
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China’s exports to the US fell 33 per cent in August, following sharp declines in recent months. But its exports to other regions including southeast Asia have increased, adding to scrutiny of potential rerouting of goods. Exports to southeast Asia rose 22.5 per cent in August, while exports to the EU added 10 per cent.
China’s trade surplus was $102.3 billion (€87.2 billion) in August, up from $98.2 billion in July.
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Analysts at Goldman Sachs noted this month that weekly container throughput dipped in August, but was 5.6 per cent above the 2024 level at the end of the month.
Zichun Huang, chief China economist at Capital Economics, said the lower export growth rate in August was driven by a higher base rate a year earlier.
But she added: “With the temporary boost from the US-China trade truce fading and the US raising tariffs on shipments rerouted via other countries, exports are likely to come under pressure in the near term.”
Policymakers in China last September introduced a package of supportive measures, including support for the stock market, which has rallied in recent months.
Analysts are closely watching for signs of any further easing, especially given continued pressure on house prices on the back of a four-year property slowdown.
Meanwhile, trade talks between the US and China are set to continue after a 90-day tariff truce, originally struck in May, was extended for a further 90 days last month.
The Trump administration last month also confirmed its “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of trading partners following its initial April announcement.
“While China’s exports and imports both slowed in August, this is not yet reflecting the impact of the shift in higher US tariffs on other countries,” noted analysts at HSBC. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2025