Following a low-key winner last week, Ben Coley seeks another in the altogether more illustrious surroundings of Wentworth and the BMW PGA Championship.
Golf betting tips: BMW PGA Championship
3pts e.w. Viktor Hovland at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
2pts e.w. Aaron Rai at 25/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1.5pts e.w. Rasmus Hojgaard at 40/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
1.5pts e.w. Hideki Matsuyama at 45/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)
1pt e.w. Matteo Manassero at 125/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Rory McIlroy’s latest moment of magic in this most memorable of years was the perfect way to begin September and now the DP World Tour heads to Wentworth, its spiritual home, for the event which still has to be considered its best: the BMW PGA Championship.
It’s 10 years since former chief executive Keith Pelley insisted that the DP World Tour Championship, the big-money, season-ending affair in Dubai, had taken over as the flagship of the world’s greatest golf tour. Here we are, a decade later, with categorical proof not only of what he got wrong, badly so in this case, but what he got right.
Buoyed by a move to this September slot and elevation to Rolex Series status, these events one of the key successes of Pelley’s tenure, the BMW PGA has attracted another fantastic field. Perhaps it could’ve been improved further by the presence of some of the best American golfers, who instead are in California, but there are stars like Hideki Matsuyama and Adam Scott joining the very best that Europe has to offer.
Every member of the Ryder Cup team bar one is here, every player who got anywhere close to making it joins them, and with Billy Horschel back from injury just in time to defend a title he won at McIlroy’s expense, only the weather can upset the mood of this tournament. Unfortunately, the forecast at this stage suggests it could threaten to do that, but unless there are big delays then there’s no way this thing gets blown off course.
McIlroy and Jon Rahm share favouritism which is a bit surprising when you consider that McIlroy has been shorter for every event they’ve both taken part in this year, he’s won four times to Rahm’s zero despite playing a generally tougher schedule, and unlike the Spaniard he’s a former champion and play-off loser here at Wentworth.
With his driver back firing after a brief lull and the softness in the turf to suit just as it did 12 months ago, back-to-back wins for the world number two could well be on the cards. Last year his Irish Open and BMW PGA results were identical, both defeats hard to swallow; now, everything right in the world, he should certainly be the clear favourite.
My favourite bet though is VIKTOR HOVLAND, who probably owes us one by now and can hopefully deliver it on Sunday.
Selected in both starts before he won the Valspar at enormous odds, then for the US PGA only to contend instead for the US Open a month later, Hovland has frustrated me more than perhaps any other golfer so far this year.
However, it’s been a generally good campaign for the Norwegian, who was deeply impressive under the gun at a course not unalike this one in Florida, where his killer iron play is such a massive weapon.
Second only to Scottie Scheffler in strokes-gained approach this season, Hovland’s improvements in that department have gone somewhat under the radar and they’re key to selecting him for this, as I feel Wentworth is less about the driver, and driving in general, than at first it may appear.
Rain-softened fairways could change that somewhat but in essence, the scoring opportunities here are holes where accuracy trumps power, such as the sweeping fourth and the reachable 12th, plus the famous 18th. We could even see some hit iron off the first of these par-fives, with the big-hitters also forced to club down on 18. Hole 17, the potential exception, is so very hard to hit in two whoever you are.
For the stock par-fours, including the particularly tough ones like one, three, nine, 13 and 15, power really doesn’t help all that much and this is more of a second-shot course, where placement is key and the wayward struggle. Some of the statistically strongest players off the tee last year were Jeff Winther, Marcus Kinhult and Si Woo Kim, all lacking power, but all pounding fairways and staying out of the trees.
Hovland is plenty long but the point here is really to emphasise that players like him just won’t need the big stick that often and providing he’s solid off the tee, this course should help to emphasise the improvements he’s made with his irons. This year has been twice as good as last from a strokes-gained perspective and up 50% even on his brilliant 2023 season, when for a time he was arguably the best player in the world.
We know already that Wentworth is a great fit as Hovland was 11th just a couple of months after turning professional and in each of his last two visits has finished fifth. His form in the build-up to the most recent of them (2023) was admittedly excellent, but that wasn’t true a year earlier yet he led after rounds one and two of a renewal cut to 54 holes, just outgunned in the end in round three.
Supreme with his irons that week and excellent both off the tee and with his irons again last time, he returns having closed with a round of 63 at East Lake, bettered by only one player, and looks to have an outstanding each-way chance. For my money, there are only three players more likely to win this thing, so he’s must-bet material.
The other option towards the head of the betting who I thought long and hard about was Ludvig Aberg. Tenth on his debut and sole visit to date in 2023, when leading after rounds two and three, that’s one of a run of five successive top-10s in regular DP World Tour starts over the past two years, including that one victory in Switzerland. He’s basically always been close to the leaders.
Brilliant off the tee, his approach play dropped badly at East Lake but had previously been solid, and he looks to be improving around the green. There’s plenty to like and I think he’ll go close to winning this again one day soon, but the price looks right and patience does wear a little thin for now. I’ve been on the wrong side of Aberg all year and would’ve needed 20/1 and bigger to try again.
It seems likely though that the winner comes from near the head of the betting and next on my list is AARON RAI.
Although unable to do enough to earn a Ryder Cup debut, Rai has enjoyed a solid campaign on the PGA Tour, including in the majors where he was always on the fringes of something significant.
But his best efforts came at courses he likes, firstly when fourth in Mexico and, more recently, fifth when defending the Wyndham Championship. Tree-lined and old-school, that course is quite a bit like this one and requires precession over power, Rai’s putter in the end the difference between winning and losing.
That could be the case again here and I’ll admit to a nagging doubt when it comes to Rai putting from close range, but there’s encouragement to be drawn from the fact that he’s gained strokes on these greens in each of the last five years, the last two his best despite having been dreadful on his previous start.
This time, Rai’s previous start came at Crans where he missed the cut for the third time in as many visits. Increasingly it looks like he just hasn’t taken to the place and I can see why, as he’s a meticulous, precise golfer who likes control, which that funky course high up in the Swiss Alps is always working to rip away from you.
Still, a second-round 65 to miss the cut by a single stroke was his best yet and we’re just going to have to assume that Friday misses from 10 and six inches – yes, inches – were shot-tracking errors. Not even Rai can do that, I simply will not believe it without video evidence to the contrary.
Anyway, Wentworth is much more his thing as he’s shown when finishing runner-up two years ago then fourth last year, both times thanks to high-class tee-to-green displays. Like Hovland, he’s a fantastic iron player (22nd and seventh in last two PGA Tour seasons), and he’s both accurate off the tee and sharp with a wedge in his hands around the green.
Ultimately, if he does what he’s done every year since 2020 and putts better than average here, Rai ought to be in the mix again. I find him hard to get away from.
Ryder Cup rookie ready to shine
If you can handle two iffy putters then the case for Shane Lowry writes itself given his record here while Corey Conners, another part of an excellent international ensemble, was the only player to outscore Hovland in the final round of the PGA Tour season and should find this place to his liking.
My preference though is for RASMUS HOJGAARD, who edges out Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen among the young Danes in this field and can underline why he’s worthy of the place he earned on Luke Donald’s Ryder Cup side.
I’m not sure Hojgaard has quite received enough credit for coming back to Europe desperately needing to perform, finishing second in his homeland and then getting the job done under enormous pressure at the Belfry.
To go from that to a stunning final-round charge in Crans was deeply impressive, too, and speaks to someone right on top of his game at the moment. As has typically been the case when he’s won, Rasmus has started to dial in his approach play, some of the very best on the DP World Tour right now.
In fact his entire game looks good, from his prodigious driving through to generally encouraging putting numbers since a top-20 finish in the Open in July. From there he performed well at the Wyndham and since returning to Europe he’s barely missed a beat, only out of the action when his focus was over his shoulder rather than out in front of him at the British Masters.
If there is a worry it’s that his driver won’t be as useful here as it can be at somewhere like Crans, but I like the fact that he’s won there and at the Belfry, particularly the latter, plus having taken the Irish Open off he should be fit and raring to go, eager no doubt to rubber-stamp that place on the Ryder Cup side. It can’t have been easy to make that decision given that he was due to defend, but it was the right one.
And while his course record doesn’t leap off the page, he’s made his last three cuts here and, on each occasion, has been close to the top of the leaderboard. Slow starts have hurt the last twice but I can forgive him last year’s, days after that Irish Open win, while in the both previous years he arrived well short of the level form he’s at right now.
Rounds of 66 and 67 demonstrate that he very much can handle Wentworth and I was very pleasantly surprised by the price.
Rookies Angel Ayora and Oliver Lindell continue to impress but experience of this event, particularly in the forecast conditions, could go a long way, which puts MATTEO MANASSERO atop my list of outsiders.
Manassero went off at about 33/1 in this last year, days after he’d contended for the Irish Open at twice that price, and duly rewarded those who rowed in again by leading through 54 holes and eventually settling for fourth.
Yes, I’d say his form was generally stronger back then, but he’s performed with credit on the PGA Tour this year, often missing cuts by narrow margins, ranking above average in strokes-gained total, and finding something like his best game to finish sixth in Canada at the beginning of June.
Pro golf is a lot of fighting and greed right now.
But these are the stories that make me love pro golf.
11 years, ELEVEN years after his last win Matteo Manassero wins again. In the dark after a delay, and back from the depths. Just awesome.
— Monday Q Info (@acaseofthegolf1) March 10, 2024
Whether a coincidence or not that leaderboard was packed with Wentworth winners, from Ryan Fox to the likes of Ben An, Danny Willett and Manassero himself, and I can find pretty good excuses for the three missed cuts that followed: the first was on a big-hitters’ course, then he missed by one in the Open, and one again in the Wyndham Championship.
An opening 65 in what was his final start of the PGA Tour campaign again hinted that Manassero might not be far away, as did the first three rounds of the European Masters, and he played well in patches to finish 37th in the Irish Open at a long, soft K Club, where he’d struggled on one previous visit.
Ultimately, with strong approach-play numbers across this two starts back in Europe and his wedge game as sharp as ever, I don’t think Manassero is far away at all and he’s far more likely to produce his best back at the scene of his finest hour, plus one of his standout performances since returning to this level.
Wentworth gives Manassero the opportunity to compete off the tee – he ranked third last year – in a way that the last two courses he’s played simply do not, and I can’t leave him alone at three-figure prices. He’s capable of competing with the star names in this field as he did 12 months ago and three-figure prices appeal plenty, with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair paying 125/1 down to 10th at the time of publication.
At the odds, it has to be Hideki
Kiradech Aphibarnrat was the most appealing of the absolute rags but is probably best backed in the first-round leader market or not at all, so the final place in the staking plan came down to Matt Wallace, Adam Scott, and HIDEKI MATSUYAMA.
The fact that Matsuyama is only a fraction shorter than the other two despite being far more prolific, indeed far classier than even Scott these days ultimately made my mind up, though Wallace’s closing 64 last year and Scott’s generally improved ball-striking are reasons to be optimistic.
With Matsuyama, there’s arguably more risk but certainly greater upside at these odds and while he did finish the PGA Tour season with a dismal effort in the TOUR Championship, all prior starts following a top-20 finish in the Open were of a good standard. That’s why he’s retained his position in DataGolf’s top 30 and as we know with Matsuyama, a big spike week is seldom that far away.
Why here? Well, aesthetically it fits, possibly because courses in his native Japan tend to be densely tree-lined and feature plenty of dog-legs. Secondly, the idea that driver isn’t everything helps as it’s been his weakest club of late, whereas his iron play always has the potential to shine as six top-10 strokes-gained-approach performances since the Masters confirm.
Arguably the most underrated player in the sport around the greens, Matsuyama definitely has the game for Wentworth and when we consider that he was 28/1 for the Masters in April and 33s for the PGA as recently as May, I can’t help but feel that 40-50/1 or so for the BMW PGA, even a strong renewal such as this, lends too much weight to the idea that he doesn’t travel all that well.
Matsuyama’s every visit to the UK and Ireland prior to this week has been for links golf but he does have a couple of notable performances to his name, and remember he earned a bronze medal at Paris 2024 despite mediocre golf coming in. I see no reason why he can’t produce his A-game on this first attempt at parkland golf in England.
That A-game won him the FedEx St Jude last August and The Sentry in January and while it’s been missing since, these are victories against world-class opposition from a world-class player who has been close to that level at times during the last few months. I’m very happy to take the risks attached, knowing we’re backing an elite golfer at prices which are bordering on disrespectful.
Posted at 2100 BST on 08/09/25
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