The Bureau of Labor Statistics rescheduled the release of the September Consumer Price Index report to Oct. 24 due to the government shutdown. The report was originally scheduled for Oct. 15.

Key TakeawaysInflation likely stayed steady but elevated in September, as tariffs continued putting pressure on goods prices.Economists say apparel and furnishings likely saw some of the larger price increases, while declining mortgages eased overall price pressures.Bond futures markets are near unanimous in expecting two Fed rate cuts by the end of the year.

Forecasts for the September Consumer Price Index report indicate inflation likely continued to run hot during the month as tariffs pushed goods prices higher. The CPI rose faster during the summer, hitting its largest increase so far this year in August, coming in higher than economists expected. Core CPI, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, also hit its highest level this year over both July and August.

Looking forward, “Inflation is certainly temporarily running hot,” says Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “But the operative word is ‘temporarily.’” He predicts that the CPI rose roughly in line with the consensus expectations in September.

Overall, economists foresee that inflation rose by 0.4% month over month in September, and 3.1% from year-ago levels. Core inflation will likely have risen 0.3% by month and 3.1% annually in September, according to data from FactSet. Figures consistent with these forecasts would be about the same as they were in August.

Roach says new tariffs will represent a onetime bump for consumer prices, not a permanent re-acceleration. He adds that the Federal Reserve has indicated that it expects inflation will stay above its 2% target for about a year or so, though he thinks it may decelerate sooner.

September CPI Report HighlightsCPI report release date and time: Friday, Oct. 24 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.The CPI is forecast to rise 0.4% in September after rising 0.4% in August.Core CPI is forecast to rise 0.3% in September after rising 0.3% in August.The CPI year over year is forecast to rise 3.1% in September after rising 2.9% in August.Core CPI year over year is forecast to rise 3.1% in September after rising 3.1% in August.Tariffs Likely Pushed Apparel and Furnishing Prices Higher

“Some of the pricing pressures coming from tariffs have been accelerating a bit,” says Kristy Akullian, head of investment strategy, Americas, at BlackRock. “In specific categories like apparel, furniture, and sporting goods, we’ve certainly seen a little bit of an uptick on the goods side of inflation, which is probably some of that tariff pass-through.”

Akullian says she expects inflation to come in roughly in line with consensus expectations, rising between 0.3% and 0.4% month over month. She adds that the sampling error in CPI data may be a bit larger than average, due to the need to rely more on online surveys amid the shutdown.

Falling Mortgage Rates May Lower Inflation

On the flip side, declines in housing costs may take some of the pressure off rising inflation. “We’re expecting a bit of a normalization in shelter, because we’ve seen mortgage rates come down over the course of the last months,” says Akullian. “We’re hoping that frees up a little bit more inventory and that can bring down some of the housing prices.”

According to the Primary Mortgage Market Survey from Freddie Mac, 30-year mortgage rates have fallen from just over 7.0% in mid-January to 6.3% in mid-September, with 15-year mortgages also seeing declines over that time.

Fed Expected to Make Two Cuts Despite Inflation

Futures markets predict a 98.9% chance of a 0.25-point interest rate cut at the Fed’s October meeting, according to CME FedWatch, with a 96.1% chance of another such cut at the December meeting.

“I don’t expect that anything we will see in the CPI data is going to change the outcome for the October Fed meeting,” says Akullian. “It’s clear from some of the rhetoric and language that we’ve heard from the Fed that they believe rates are restrictive, so it does feel like the bias from here is to cut.”

Akullian says that while price levels represent one key component of the nation’s economic health, they’re currently not the most important. “I think the more important factor that we’re watching right now is probably the labor market and how the weakness there translates to the real economy,” she says. She adds that a major downturn in the labor market could put downward pressure on prices that would outweigh the upward pressure from tariffs.