WALSH PURE SPREADER
Pure Hedge Division
RICH MORAN 10/22/2023
I mentioned on Friday that as much as I like to look at charts as a resource, I will rarely make or suggest a trade based solely on technical analysis. I always like to combine technical analysis with fundamental analysis. We are still not getting our economic releases with the government shutdown, so today we are still going through our current active trades ….
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10/10/2025: ZLH26-ZLK26 (MAR-MAY ’26 Soybean Oil Spread)
Today’s settlement: -0.19, Long at -0.18
On Wednesday (10/15/25) I said ….
“Today the spread settled -18, above the 14-day that settled -19 and even with the 21-day (-18).
Last Friday (10/10/25) I said, “I think if we can trade and settle above both of these moving averages, we should try to buy this spread with a short stop below the 52-week low of -0.27.”
Today, we did trade above both moving averages. We settled above the 14-day and even with the 21-day. I think when the market re-opens, we should try to buy the ZLH26-ZLK26 spread at -18 (today’s settlement) or better if we open lower. If we are not able to buy it there on the open, leave a resting -0.18 bid.
If and when we get filled, we will define risk/reward levels, but on the down side, get out at -0.33, six tics below the 52-week low of -0.27. We will look to for a reward of about four times our risk.”
On Thursday, 10/16/25, we opened at -0.18 and traded lower, so we are long at -0.18.
Risk 10 ticks (price -0.28) or $60 to make 30 tics (price or +0.12) or $180 plus fees and commissions.
On 10/16/25 this spread traded and settled -0.28 so we were stopped out for a loss of $60 per spread.
10/3/2025: ZCZ25-ZOZ25 (DEC Corn-Oats Spread)
Today the spread settled 121, even with the 14-day, but above the 21-day that ended the day at 118½.
I think if we can break through this support and trade below, as well as settle below, both of these moving averages, this support could turn into resistance. At that point, it might be a good time to get short the ZCZ25-ZOZ25 spread (sell ZCZ25 and buy ZOZ25).
10/1/2025: SBH26-SBK26 (MAR-MAY’26 Sugar #11 Spread)
Today’s settlement: .49, Long at .42
On 10/1/25 I said “I think it might be a good play to bid today’s settlement (42 cents) or better when the corn market opens.”
“If we get filled, risk 24 cents or $268.80 Per Spread to make 50 cents or $560 Per Spread plus fees and commissions.
On 10/2/25 the market opened at .41, so we are long at .42.
Risk 24 cents (price of .18) or $268.80 Per Spread to make 50 cents (price of .92) or $560.00 Per Spread plus fees and commissions.
9/24/25: KEZ25-ZWZ25 (DEC’25 Kansas City-Chicago Wheat Spread)
Today’s settlement: -15¼, Long at -14½
On 9/24/25, KEZ25-ZWZ25 settled -12¾.
I suggested placing an offer to buy KEZ25-ZWZ25 at -14½ on 9/25/25. The spread traded -15, so we are long at -14½.
Risking 8 cents (price of -22½) or $400 to make 24 cents (price of +9½) or $1,200 plus fees and commissions.
9/17/2025: ZWZ25-ZCZ25 (DEC Wheat-Corn Spread)
Today the spread settled 80¾, below the 14-day that settled 85 and the 21-day that settled 88.
If we can get the ZWZ25-ZCZ25 spread to trade and settle above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, I think getting long this spread with a relatively short stop could be a good play. I believe this might offer us a nice risk to reward trade. We can define our exact risk/reward levels if we establish a position in the ZWZ25-ZCZ25 spread, but I think we should risk about 15 cents or $750 Per Spread to make about 50 cents or $2,500 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
9/10/25: ZCZ25-ZCH26 (DEC-MAR Corn Spread)
Today’s settlement: -12¾, Long at -17½
On Wednesday (9/10/25) I suggested that if the ZCZ25-ZCH26 opens at -17½ (Wednesday’s settlement) or higher, trying to get long the spread (buying Dec25-Corn versus selling Mar’26-Corn) at -17½.
The spread opened at -17½ and traded lower, so we are long at -17½.
We were risking 2 cents (price of -19½) or $100 Per Spread to make 6 cents (price of -11½) or $300 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
On Friday (10/17) I raised our stop to -17½ for a scratch. I hate to turn a winner into a loser.
Today we are raising our stop another 2 cents to -15½ for a 2 cents winner. This was our original risk on this trade.
So now we are looking to make 2 cents ($100 Per Spread) at -15½ or to make 6 cents ($300 Per Spread) at -11½, plus fees and commissions.
8/27/25: ZSF26-ZSN26 (JAN-JULY’26 Soybean Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -36, Long at -40¼
On Friday (10/3/25) I said, “yesterday (10/2/25) this spread, ZSF26-ZSN26 (JAN-JULY’26 Soybean Spread), settled above both the 14-day and the 21-day moving averages at -39. I suggest buying the spread at -39 or better when the Soybean market opens. If you do not get filled on the opening, work a -39 bid.”
On Monday (10/3/25) the spread opened at -40½, so we are long at -40¼.
I said to risk 4 cents (price of -44¼) or $200 to make 12 cents (price of -28¼) or $600 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
We are only risking 4 cents on this trade and we have a 4¼ cent lead on the trade so we are raising our stop to -40¼ for a scratch. I hate to turn a winner into a loser.
Now we are risking a scratch at -40¼ to make 12 cents ($600) at -28¼, plus fees and commissions.
8/6/25: ZSX25-ZSF26 (NOV-JAN Soybean Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -15¼, Long at -17½
The spread settled above the 14-day and the 21-day at -17¾ on 8/21/25. You should be long at -17½ from the open on 8/22/25.
Risking 3½ cents (price of -21) or $175 to make 9 ½ cents (price of -8) or $475 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
7/23/25: ZWZ25-ZWH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Wheat Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -15¾, Long at -18½
Risking 3½ cents (price of -22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (price of -8½) or $500 Per Spread, plus fees and commissions.
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Rich Moran
Senior Commodities Broker
Direct: (312)985-0298
Cell: (773)502-5321
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
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