The brain drain of workers who would be considered the ‘brightest and the best’, and operate in key sectors such as healthcare, appears to be due to quality-of-life issues. The shortage of housing, the expense of childcare, and even bad weather are thought to be among the reasons why they decide to leave Ireland again.
The finding is reported in “Future Forty: Ireland’s Demographic Outlook”, an analysis by the Department of Finance of the economic and fiscal changes we can expect between now and 2065.
It looks at three separate scenarios for migration, which has the biggest impact on population growth but is the most difficult to predict. In the central scenario, net migration ranges is at 35,000 to 40,000 a year, pushing Ireland’s population up to 6.77 million by 2065.
In this scenario, the growth in the Irish labour force is sustained until 2047.
For now, however, the finding that highly skilled workers tend not to put down roots in Ireland is a concern.
Describing the emigration rate as “extremely high”, the report points out that the departure of young, well paid and highly skilled workers poses challenges for the labour force and the Exchequer.
“From an enterprise perspective, high workforce churn increases recruitment costs, disrupts workforce planning, and potentially hampers productivity in the short run as workers take time to learn how to perform new job functions,” the report says.
“Losing highly skilled talent is also potentially damaging from a fiscal perspective if high tax-paying individuals leave the State. It would also be beneficial to retain talent from a broader integration standpoint, enhancing social cohesion.”
It says more research is needed to find out why the exit rates are so high, but speculates that building community and social connections is key to keeping skilled foreign workers here.
“Addressing barriers such as housing affordability, public transport reliability and access to childcare would also likely help to ensure that more skilled migrants see Ireland as a viable place to stay and build their lives,” the report says.
“These actions could also increase overall population fertility rates. Other barriers may include family reunification policies, skills development opportunities and clarity of pathways to stay in Ireland which would be worth exploring further in future research.”
As the Irish economy has expanded, more migrant workers have been needed in key areas, due to shortages of local labour. While 4,702 work permits were issued in 2016, some 25,549 were issued last year. Ireland needs specialist skills to build out the electricity grid, to construct wind turbines and to retrofit buildings.
Employment permit holders are typically younger than the average migrant, with the average age being about 30.
Due to falling fertility rates, migration is likely to be the only driver of growth in the Irish labour force.
In the central scenario looked at by the Department of Finance, the fertility rate drops from the current 1.5 to 1.3 by 2038. For a population to replace itself, the fertility rate needs to be slightly over 2.
Even in the highest scenario analysed by the department, the fertility rate stabilises at 1.5. In no scenario it looked at did the fertility rate increase.
The research found that Ireland’s old-age dependency ratio will rise significantly over the coming decades, from 23.1pc in 2022, to 55.2pc in 2065 under a baseline scenario.
“This will place significant pressure on public finances, pensions and healthcare services,” the report says. “Continuing to enhance the management of migration can help sustain a larger working-age population, alleviating some of the pressures from these demographic shifts.”