Meanwhile, global trade tensions have contributed to volatility in oil prices, which remains a cornerstone of Alberta’s economy. Lower oil prices, driven in part by weaker global demand and increased supply from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), have led to reduced investment in the province’s oil and gas sector.
At the same time, Alberta has been somewhat shielded from the harshest effects of US tariffs, especially due to exemptions for goods compliant with the Canada United States Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). This has helped protect some manufacturing and export sectors, such as steel, aluminum, and autos, from more severe disruptions.
“Alberta’s economy is not immune to the effects of the trade war, but is expected to weather the storm better than other provinces. Looking beyond the current trade challenges, emerging industries like technology and tourism will support Alberta’s growth,” Mark Parsons, ATB Financial’s chief economist, said.
Challenges and opportunities in labour market and housing
However, the overall uncertainty caused by the trade war has weighed on business confidence and investment decisions. Companies have been more cautious about expanding or hiring, contributing to a softer labour market and higher unemployment.
“Many Albertans are feeling the weight of the economic slowdown,” Parsons said. “We’re seeing a disconnect where the economy is growing, but the job market can’t keep up with the number of job seekers. The potential for major projects in energy and infrastructure to create new jobs is a major upside, but we’re waiting for shovels to actually hit the ground.”