More inflated than past years
Not as inflated as past years
More inflated than past years
Computers, smart home assistants
Many TVs, smartphones and tablets are made in China, India and Vietnam — countries affected by US tariffs. Apple plans to produce most US iPhones in India, which currently faces a 50% tariff, by 2026.
The Consumer Technology Association estimates that tariffs on consumer tech product imports could cut US purchasing power by roughly $123 billion and drive average retail prices sharply higher — by more than 30% for smartphones, 34% for laptops and tablets and 69% for video game consoles. AI-driven chip demand may add further pressure in the months ahead.
“The window to beat tariff-driven price increases has likely closed,” said Willy Shih, a supply chain expert at Harvard Business School. As an example, Shih stocked up on camera and video equipment in April, just after tariffs were announced, since he knew they were manufactured in Thailand. Mark Mathews of the National Retail Federation also said electronic sales rose 30% during that period.
If you’re going to shop anyway? “Look for deals on Black Friday,” Shih said.
Shop Early for Toy Trends
More inflated than past years
Not as inflated as past years
The toy market faces a double squeeze: most products are made in China, which remains subject to steep US tariffs, and consumer trends shift unpredictably. That combination makes it harder for retailers to gauge inventory needs, said Juli Lennett, vice president and industry advisor for toys at Circana, a data and tech provider to consumer goods companies, manufacturers and retailers.
“Shop early if your child wants something specific,” she advised since the season’s must-have toys always vanish sooner than many shoppers anticipate. Tariffs and viral social media trends, such as the recent Labubus craze, can make shortages more likely — Walmart, Toy Insider and Amazon already have lists of toys at different price points that are popular this season.
For parents shopping beyond toys, prices for sporting equipment are running higher than usual, while musical instruments have held steady.
Brace for Higher Jewelry and Watch Prices
More inflated than past years
Gold prices surged to record highs in October. Even as they ease, retailers report strong demand for the metal as a gift that holds value over time, said David Bonaparte, president and CEO of Jewelers of America.
The precious metal’s role in Swiss luxury watches, combined with 39% tariffs on Switzerland, could drive further price hikes. Tariffs on India — the world’s largest exporter of diamonds, according to McKinsey — have also put pressure on the industry, Bonaparte said.
Some relief may be coming for the broader jewelry market as US-India trade negotiations progress, especially since the US gets most of its polished diamond imports from India. As trade agreements shift, colored gemstones, polished diamonds and other jewelry have the potential to see reduced tariffs depending on their country of origin, though Bonaparte expects prices to rise through the holidays as inventories purchased ahead of the tariffs begin to dwindle.
His advice: Go to a trusted source. Those retailers may not offer major discounts, he said, but can guarantee authenticity and quality.
And when it comes to luxury watches, both Bonaparte and Stephan Shipe, economist and founder of Scholar Advising, said that now’s a good time to buy before prices go up further in 2026.
Look for Apparel That Lasts
More inflated than past years
Men’s suits, sport coats, outerwear
Not as inflated as past years
When it comes to children’s clothing, parents are delaying purchases of new pieces, said Marshal Cohen, the chief retail advisor at Circana. Burlington Stores, a budget shopping brand, said its young shoppers remain “value-conscious,” though not simply from a price perspective; they also care about quality and brand.
China’s dominance in apparel and footwear manufacturing has added to pricing strain. Cohen said fast-turning categories such as clothing were hit first, while longer-cycle goods absorbed costs more gradually. One children’s clothing maker, Carter’s, said it is seeing “some acceptance” from consumers in raising some prices as tariffs take hold.
Steve Madden reported it is offsetting margin pressure through “strategic pricing” and new sourcing, with wholesale orders beginning to normalize.
The overall message is that even with Black Friday deals, clothing and shoes will remain costly. If you’re in the market for something new, buy items that will last.
Substitute to Find Savings on Holiday Meals
More inflated than past years
Not as inflated as past years
Putting together a holiday meal may be pricier this year. Demand for cheese and beef remains strong while US cattle herds stay small, keeping meat prices elevated. While beef prices are much more inflated this year compared to past years, price growth for chicken and pork have moderated.
Tariffs on steel are rippling through machinery, transportation, manufacturing and packaging — and one surprising casualty is frozen vegetables. Climate change is also pushing up grocery bills by reducing crop yields. Coffee and chocolate have been hit especially hard, with poor harvests and tariffs keeping prices high.
Not every aisle is suffering. Shelf-stable fish — canned tuna, sardines and anchovies — are still selling for about a dollar a pack at major retailers, helped by longer shelf lives and ample supply. It’s not all bargain-bin fare: upscale brands such as the direct-to-consumer Fishwife are having a moment.
Food price fluctuations in general are caused by a complex web of factors with no one simple explanation or cause, said Ricky Volpe, a professor in California Polytechnic State University’s agribusiness department. Overall, though, grocery prices have been relatively steady due to consumer flexibility and product averaging, even as producers and retailers brace for volatility.
“If consumers are willing to substitute away from steak and ground beef, they can achieve real savings in the poultry aisle by buying other products, by buying chicken breasts or plant-based meats or tofu or some seafoods,” Volpe said as one example. He said shoppers can also cut costs by opting for grocers’ in-house labels and taking advantage of store promotions.
Consider Wine for an Inflation-Friendly Gift
More inflated than past years
Not as inflated as past years
Distilled spirits tend to see stronger demand during the holidays, which could drive prices higher, said Scott Scanlon, executive vice president for alcohol beverages at Circana.
Beer, by contrast, may stay relatively stable. “Nobody really wants to take the price up,” Scanlon said, noting that brewers remain focused on competitiveness in a price-sensitive market. Brand loyalty matters less when consumers are buying for volume rather than prestige.
Wine — a traditional gift category — has gone the other direction. Prices are “more deflated than normal,” Scanlon said, citing the industry’s well-documented headwinds: tariffs on European producers, declining consumption among members of Gen Z and growing public health warnings about alcohol’s risks.
Be Practical About Home Goods
More inflated than past years
Not as inflated as past years
Those who love interior design should keep an eye out for discounts and deals. Furniture trends move quickly, though production and shipping for big items can be slow by comparison, Cohen said. While the industry has faced tariff pressures from China and Vietnam — two major manufacturing hubs — furniture is still more promotional than other categories.
“You might try to front-run inventory for that, but if you get it wrong, then you’re going to end up with a lot of stuff that’s going to be promotional,” Shih said about furniture trends. Excess stock often translates into lower prices for consumers.
Aside from furniture, if your gift idea leans on the more practical side, prices for appliances and tools are more inflated than in recent years while outdoor gear and pet products have stayed relatively stable.
Not as inflated as past years
The travel industry is less subject to disruption from geopolitical tensions due to its service-based nature. Even with concerns about understaffed Air Traffic Control towers, that strain hasn’t yet translated into higher airfares, said Vinayak Deshpande, a professor at UNC Kenan-Flagler Business School who studies supply chain management in aviation.
The same holds for lodging. “Lodging is a service industry, and service industries are less prone to changes in geopolitical risks like tariffs since that does not impact the cost structure in a major way,” Deshpande said. While broader economic shifts could still affect demand, travel and hospitality remain relatively insulated, so now could be the time to plan a trip.
When it comes to traveling during the holidays, Deshpande’s advice: book early, when more inventory is available. Prices tend to rise closer to the holidays, unless the economy softens — something that’s “very difficult to predict,” he noted.
Still Not Sure If You Should Buy? Remember These Expert Tips
Not as inflated as past years
Get Personal. Gifting something personalized or experiential is an effective way to sidestep higher prices, said Ryan Marshall, vice president and financial advisor at Wealth Enhancement. Non-monetary gifts, homemade items or shared experiences such as movies and concerts — with prices much the same as in previous years — can be just as meaningful and far more cost-efficient.
“That’s always a good gift-giving strategy,” Marshall said, noting it can be a little more work. “So we try to stress that as much as we can just to kind of ease the burden on the prices.”
Check Items Off Your List Early. Getting a head start will give shoppers time to monitor trends and take advantage of deals, Marshall said. Price-tracking tools and pre-Black Friday sales can help identify discounts, while credit card cash-back offers can stretch budgets further.
“Trying to start early is always good because then you at least have time to monitor prices over a couple weeks,” Marshall said.
Stay Calm. Flexibility matters more than perfect timing, and staying adaptable is the best tool in your financial toolkit, according to Elliot Pepper of Northbrook Financial.
“Trying to time inflation pricing is not really something that’s proven to make a lot of sense,” he said. “We normally don’t see deflation going back to an original baseline number.”