Autumn Nations Series: Ireland v South Africa, Aviva Stadium, Saturday, 5.40pm – Live on RTÉ 2 & TNT Sports 2
Now this really couldn’t have been scripted much better. Okay, it’s ridiculous to even consider the All Blacks and the Wallabies as warm-up acts, but if there was one game to be reserved for the prime teatime Saturday in this autumnal finale, then it was the latest instalment in Ireland’s rivalry with the all-encompassing, all-conquering Springboks, the best side in the world and potentially the best side ever. If this doesn’t get the Aviva feverish then maybe it’s time Irish rugby moved out.
To the uninitiated, there may not appear to be too much at stake. While there is room for some juggling in the world rankings, no matter the result here the Boks are guaranteed to retain top spot.
Ireland could rise to second with a win, but these two, along with New Zealand, England and Argentina, cannot drop out of Band 1 for the Rugby World Cup draw on December 3rd. Australia would need to beat France by more than 15 points to take the last place in the top band.
Yet, November Tests such as this remain hugely significant to the players, coaches and supporters of both countries. Besides, the concept of an Ireland-South Africa game nowadays being termed a “friendly” is laughable.
Rassie Erasmus and the Springboks don’t do friendlies at the best of times, and least of all against Ireland. That Erasmus looked as short of sleep and as hoarse as ever last Thursday when still wondering aloud if he should have gone for a 7-1 bench, and that the Boks are targeting this game as much as any other in 2025, is a backhanded compliment. Ireland teams never used to be taken this seriously.
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This is in part due to Ireland winning four of the last five meetings and, indeed, nine of the last 14, whereas Ireland won just one of the previous 16 before that. What’s more, the trend has been maintained even while the Springboks have won back-to-back World Cups, including a sleeves-rolled-up World Cup pool win on a memorable evening in Paris and a series-levelling win in Durban when the sides last met.
One senses this is an acute source of annoyance to their supporters, players and Erasmus’s coaching staff – which, of course, includes two Irishmen in Jerry Flannery and Felix Jones.
South Africa head coach Rassie Erasmus, RG Snyman and Siya Kolisi at UCD Bowl on Friday. Photograph: Laszlo Geczo/Inpho
So it is that Erasmus has masterfully assembled his disparate spread of high-achieving veterans and shiny new stars (such as the gifted Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu) from Europe and Japan, and ensured they are primed to produce one of their best displays for a game he says will define their year.
Considering what they’ve done to the All Blacks in Wellington, Argentina in Durban and France in Paris in 2025, that’s a high bar. For example, the 33-year-old Pieter-Steph du Toit has been at his rampaging, athletic, powerful best this year. In Paris he was playing his 18th Test for the Boks since his last club game for Toyota Verblitz in May 2024.
Yet Ireland have carefully managed world-class players too and, after Ireland’s eve-of-match captain’s run in the Aviva, Caelan Doris said this game will define their month – and he could have said 2025 too.
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Coming on top of France storming the Aviva in March, a loss here would mean two home defeats in a calendar year for the first time since the consecutive losses to Australia and New Zealand in November 2013. Since then Ireland have won 58, drawn one and lost just six times at the Aviva.
That wouldn’t constitute the end of this team, much less the world. But in light of England’s 11-game winning run elevating them above Ireland into third, backing up last week’s win over Australia would be a timely reminder ahead of the Six Nations (which begins in less than 11 weeks) that Andy Farrell’s side are still dining at the top table.
Undercooked against New Zealand in Chicago, it looks as if Farrell has Ireland primed for their best performance of the month, and the Boks’ standout performances have maybe engendered a healthy fear factor.
“If you think back to playing them over there in 2024, we didn’t get it quite right in Test one, we got a bit of a bollocking going into Test two,” said Doris in relation to Farrell’s dressing down after the loss in Loftus Versfeld and ahead of the stunning win in Kings Park a week later.
Revealing that the head coach had focused on him and Dan Sheehan in one session this week, and specifically their tackling, Doris effectively confirmed that Farrell has been in similar mood this week.
Sam Prendergast and Jamison Gibson-Park arrive for the Ireland team run at the Aviva Stadium on Friday. Photograph: Brian Lawless/PA Wire
“Faz speaks unbelievably well, he holds the room, captivates the attention massively, and hits the right emotional tone and he’s done that several times this week.”
A key ingredient of Ireland winning four of the last five has been doing unto the Boks what they do to others, namely disrupt them, and impose their own set-piece game and discipline. With Sam Prendergast’s passing and kicking range, and the footballing ability of Jamison Gibson-Park and Mack Hansen, they can also hurt any team.
Against that, Ireland have conceded eight tries in three November games to date and five came off lineout mauls or pick-and-go drives; only Japan have leaked more of this type. The Springboks will have been licking their lips when watching clips of those five tries, but Farrell, Simon Easterby and the Irish team leaders will have focused on this too.
The bigger caveat is the Boks’ stamina and power off the bench, and if ever a player is set for another impactful appearance it is RG Snyman, on his 50th cap at his home ground.
Since losing to Ireland in the pool stages of France 2023, South Africa have won 32 of their last 36 matches. In their current six-game winning run they’ve thrice been behind at half-time and twice led by just a score. Yet the Boks’ aggregate score after the break in those six matches has been 173-42, at an average of 29-7, and despite playing two of those halves with 14 men.
This Ireland team will produce a big performance. It’s within their capabilities to again stop the Springboks’ juggernaut. But the likelihood is that the world’s number one side may ultimately pull through, if just about.
IRELAND: Mack Hansen (Connacht); Tommy O’Brien (Leinster), Garry Ringrose (Leinster), Bundee Aki (Connacht), James Lowe (Leinster); Sam Prendergast (Leinster), Jamison Gibson-Park (Leinster); Andrew Porter (Leinster), Dan Sheehan (Leinster), Tadhg Furlong (Leinster); James Ryan (Leinster), Tadhg Beirne (Munster); Ryan Baird (Leinster), Josh van der Flier (Leinster), Caelan Doris (Leinster, capt).
Replacements: Rónan Kelleher (Leinster), Paddy McCarthy (Leinster), Finlay Bealham (Connacht), Cian Prendergast (Connacht), Jack Conan (Leinster), Craig Casey (Munster), Jack Crowley (Munster), Tom Farrell (Munster).
SOUTH AFRICA: Damian Willemse (Stormers); Canan Moodie (Bulls), Jesse Kriel (Canon Eagles), Damian de Allende (Wild Knights), Cheslin Kolbe (Tokyo Sungoliath); Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu (Stormers), Cobus Reinach (Stormers); Boan Venter (Edinburgh), Malcolm Marx (Kubota Spears), Thomas du Toit (Bath); Eben Etzebeth (Sharks), Ruan Nortje (Bulls); Siya Kolisi (Sharks, capt), Pieter-Steph du Toit (Toyota Verblitz), Jasper Wiese (Urayasu D-Rocks).
Replacements: Johan Grobbelaar (Bulls), Gerhard Steenekamp (Bulls), Wilco Louw (Bulls), RG Snyman (Leinster), Kwagga Smith (Shizuoka Blue Revs), Andre Esterhuizen (Sharks), Grant Williams (Sharks), Manie Libbok (Kintetsu Liners).
Referee: Matthew Carley (RFU)
Overall head-to-head: Played 30. Ireland 10 wins, South Africa 19 wins, 1 draw.
Last five meetings – Nov 2017: Ireland 38 South Africa 3; Nov 2022: Ireland 19 South Africa 16; Sep 2023: Ireland 13 South Africa 8 (RWC, Paris); July 2024: South Africa 27 Ireland 20; South Africa 24 Ireland 25.
Five-game form guide – Ireland: 34-5 v Georgia (a); 106-7 v Portugal (a); 13-26 v New Zealand (n); 41-10 v Japan (h); 46-19 v Australia (h). South Africa: W 67-30 v Argentina (h); W 29-27 v Argentina (n); W 61-7 v Japan (n); W 32-17 v France (a); W 32-14 v Italy (a).
Betting: 21-10 Ireland, 20-1 Draw, 2-5 South Africa. Handicap betting (Ireland +6 pts): Evens Ireland, 16-1 Draw, Evens South Africa.
Forecast: South Africa to win.